The changing face of rural USA

[Red Badger]

A few other comments.

Farming is hyper-sensitive to economies of scale. While I have empathy for those who want that lifestyle (small family farm), it is no longer a viable profession. Those hanging on do so just like anyone else whose career field is in precarious decline - at great peril. I grew up on a small family farm. My dad sold out when he saw the handwriting on the wall.

I anxiously await the day when we stop herding 30 or 40 kids into a classroom for 6+ hours of "education" each day. I applaud those that have embarked on homeschooling and other alternatives to our 17th century, agrarian designed educational system. Distance leaning, outdoor engagement, small group settings, and other alternative approaches can all complement or replace student warehousing. Spending $10-15K per student is a result of our outdated approach, and it is entirely unwarranted. As just a small example, why do most textbooks even exist today?

 

[NW-Bound]

The trend towards urbanization is playing out all around the word. I recently drove across the vast countryside of Spain, and came through many deserted towns and villages. I read that many young Spaniards have gone for work elsewhere, as far north as Norway.

In my RV treks across North America, I saw similar dying towns, although I did not have a chance to talk to the residents to learn more personal stories like in the first post of the thread.

I have spent a lot of time recently watching Youtube videos of Eastern Europe countries in the former Soviet Union. There is little left for the people remaining there to do; all the young people have packed up and migrated to Western Europe. Farms and homes were abandoned, factories and buildings left to decay. It's all a very sad sight.

Earlier posters talk about immigrants coming to this country with nothing, and managing to do well. Perversely, having little to lose makes it easier to pack up and jump on a boat.

But if the most valuable possession is not some numbers in a brokerage account that you can look up no matter where you are in the world, but some land or a home in a dying town, you don't have a lot of tangible wealth to take with you to start a new life elsewhere. You tend to hang on and hope to make things work.

I am glad I am not in the above situation, but a bit of reflection tells me the dilemma some people have.


PS. Even China which has been mostly a rural country whose population lived on farming in the last century has been going through the same urbanization. They now flock to large and crowded cities with high rises, and toil in factories to make things to export.

 

[Teacher Terry]

We have had to move a few times for jobs and its was fine when the kids were little. We had to move twice within 2 years when 2 were teens and it was detrimental. The oldest was in college and didn’t come with us. When I worked in a rural area helping people with disabilities return to work it was frustrating. It didn’t make sense to do career counseling because the options were limited. It was easier to hand them the newspaper and ask which of those jobs they were qualified and willing to do. I found rural people to be extremely stubborn and not willing to even consider moving.

 

[Andre1969]

Wow, I guess to you small rural towns have zero redeeming features. You make it sound like turning 18 and getting out is akin to a jail break. You lump every single person that stayed into the same category. No, they are not all broke, and they don't all spend their time at the bar complaining about how awful their lives are. You're pretty judgmental to say they think hunting is more important to them then providing for their families.

Small towns are like big towns, some people are happy and some are not.But don't lump all small town people into the same category. I don't even live in a small town, I live in a township with a population of a couple hundred people. Wonder where I fit in?

Yep, I agree...that post made it sound like someone was eager to get out of Walnut Grove before the railroad seized it, and Charles Ingalls came up with the idea to blow it all up! Not all small towns are created equal.

 

[Independent]

I live in a small (10,000 population) county seat in Iowa. I like the lifestyle. We have a small college that seems to be prospering, a few bigger employers (manufacturing and service). All the lawyers and doctors and accountants and dentists and bankers in the county live here.

The manufacturers and service businesses all started as local businesses owned by local entrepreneurs or farmers' co-ops. Now they are subs of bigger entities, and they could be closed in an instant.

At one time, the town functioned as the service center for the many farmers in the area. The number of farmers has been declining for more than a century. (Many Iowa counties hit peak population in 1900 or 1910 https://iowahighwayends.net/blog/2016/06/peak-population-decade-for-each-iowa-county/ )

So yes, this trend has been going on for a long time. Some places, like mine, managed to swim against the current due to the happenstance of local businessmen. But, we'll probably succumb some day.

And, yes, even though I know the trend is pretty inevitable, I find it sad. I've enjoyed living here. I will hate to see the place whither (if I live long enough to see that).

 

[imoldernu]

Our last home was in Lisle, Illinois, right next to Naperville , IL.
The distance from Naperville, to Peru, where we live now, is about 75 miles.

I think that looking at a comparison, may point up the difference between lifetyle/living costs in these nearby cities... Peru, rural Naperville suburban

......................Peru................Naperville...........Illinois
Population.......10,000.............48,000................13 million
Median age......46.7................37.7....................37.9
Median HH inc...$52,000..........$117,000.............$61,000
Median hse.val..$116,000.........$421,000.............$187,000
Cost of liv.index..78.4................104.5.................Natl. 100

Even if a farmer in Peru, (generally lower education level) were to move to Naperville where the jobs pay more, the change that many have suggested would be the right thing to do... the change will be difficult, if only because of the housing costs.

 

[Amethyst]

Mr. A. is descended from miners who managed to save up passage from the Isle of Man to Pennsylvania, along with their numerous sons who went to work in the PA coal mines. Exactly why they decided to emigrate we don't know, but we know from family lore that they were poor. No doubt someone convinced them they could do better overseas.

The youngest son decided coal wasn't for him, and headed west to work on the "steam-railroad," as the census takers called it back then. All his sons, including Mr. A's father, were railroad men. Mr. A. was the first generation to attend college. went south to work for the government, and there (some decades later) we met (after I moved 1,000 miles north). Meanwhile, the railroad industry went in the toilet.

It's an American story.

It all depends on how much you want to succeed. Many of us are descendants of people that showed up at Ellis Island with a suitcase and a half dozen kids.

 

[Amethyst]

Indeed, it would be rough for anyone middle-aged or older to take on such a change. I have much sympathy for them.

Younger people, though, can suck it up with roommates for a few years. They usually have to, indeed, what with student loan burdens.

Our last home was in Lisle, Illinois, right next to Naperville , IL.
The distance from Naperville, to Peru, where we live now, is about 75 miles.

I think that looking at a comparison, may point up the difference between lifetyle/living costs in these nearby cities... Peru, rural Naperville suburban

......................Peru................Naperville...........Illinois
Population.......10,000.............48,000................13 million
Median age......46.7................37.7....................37.9
Median HH inc...$52,000..........$117,000.............$61,000
Median hse.val...116,000.........$421,000.............$187,000
Cost of liv.index..78.4................104.5.................Natl. 100

Even if a farmer in Peru, (generally lower education level) were to move to Naperville where the jobs pay more, the change that many have suggested would be the right thing to do... the change will be difficult, if only because of the housing costs.

 

[timo2]

Another secondary effect of tariffs will be the losses in the U.S. Fishing Industry, particularly lobstering. The current loss exceeds 80% of last years crop, as Canada takes over the supply of lobsters to China. I am a little bit close to this, with old time friends from Maine who are still in the business, and a nephew who lives and works in lobstering on Canada's Prince Edward Island. Almost all of the U.S. losses on the lobster business has or is going to Canada.

the lobsters are moving north to colder waters anyway (article from 2015)
A big shift is coming to the Maine lobster population — and it could devastate the local economy

"The problem is, lobsters like cold water. And oceans are warming, especially in New England.

The waters in the Gulf of Maine, specifically, are warming faster than 99% of the world's oceans.

And as a result, lobsters are moving north toward colder climates.

Over the last decade, southern lobster fisheries along Long Island and Connecticut have already seen their catches drop due to lobsters moving north into Maine, which hauled record catches during the same time period, according to the Portland Press Herald.

Maine lobsters have already moved north about 43 miles per decade between 1968 and 2008, according to a 2013 study."

https://www.businessinsider.com/lobsters-move-north-as-ocean-warms-2015-6

 

[Spock]

You'll have to filter out or not be distracted by the dystopian aspects of this 5minute video, but there are some interesting tidbits:
* by 2030, cities will grow by 1.4B
* cities will account for 60% of world population

* in a city of 10M people, if 99% law abiding/support gov+law enforcement/etc (optimistic assumption), that leaves a force of 100,000 people who do not.


The video was allegedly produced for the Pentagon as part of forecasting what urban warfare will have to adapt to in the near future.

 

[timo2]

The trend towards urbanization is playing out all around the word. I recently drove across the vast countryside of Spain, and came through many deserted towns and villages. I read that many young Spaniards have gone for work elsewhere, as far north as Norway.

Article from 2016: Megacities, not nations, are the world’s dominant, enduring social structures

"By 2025, there will be at least 40 such megacities. The population of the greater Mexico City region is larger than that of Australia, as is that of Chongqing, a collection of connected urban enclaves in China spanning an area the size of Austria. Cities that were once hundreds of kilometers apart have now effectively fused into massive urban archipelagos, the largest of which is Japan’s Taiheiyo Belt that encompasses two-thirds of Japan’s population in the Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka megalopolis.

China’s Pearl River delta, Greater São Paulo, and Mumbai-Pune are also becoming more integrated through infrastructure. At least a dozen such megacity corridors have emerged already. China is in the process of reorganizing itself around two dozen giant megacity clusters of up to 100 million citizens each. And yet by 2030, the second-largest city in the world behind Tokyo is expected not to be in China, but Manila in the Philippines.

America’s rising multi-city clusters are as significant as any of these, even if their populations are smaller. Three in particular stand out. First, the East Coast corridor from Boston through New York to Washington, DC contains America’s academic brain, financial center, and political capital (the only thing missing is a high-speed railway to serve as the regional spine).

From San Francisco to San Jose, Silicon Valley has become one continuous low-rise stretch between I-280 and US-101 that is home to over 6,000 technology companies that generate more than $200 billion in GDP (with a San Francisco–Los Angeles–San Diego high-speed rail, California’s Pacific Coast would truly become the western counterpart to the northeastern corridor. Elon Musk’s Tesla has proposed an ultra-high-speed “Hyperloop” tunnel system for this route).

Finally, the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, the largest urban cluster in the American South, houses industry giants such as Exxon, AT&T, and American Airlines in an economy larger than South Africa’s and is poised to get a high-speed rail to the oil capital Houston, based on plans rolled out in 2014 by private developers Texas Central.*

https://qz.com/666153/megacities-no...ocial-structures-adapted-from-connectography/

Here is a map of the projected USA megacities in 2050
http://www.america2050.org/2050_Map_Megaregions2008.png

 

[LOL!]

I'll take my country 10 acres, that is 10 miles from any town, ANY DAY, over any city ! I am truly glad that "city folk" like all the ammenities, and opportunities of the busy metro areas, it keeps them out of my area, where without fail, they want to complain about the smells, and sounds of the 4 generation farm next door.

Yep, wherever you live, don't whine about it. If you don't like where you, then do something about it. If it changes on you, then do something about it.

And if you like where you live, then more power to you!

 

[frayne]

I think rural and small town upbringings play a critical role in the narrative of the American experience.

Growing up in a small (less than 10K population) industrious town with plenty of good manufacturing jobs back in the fifties and sixties was great. Good schools, low to no crime, everyone knew and looked out for each other and you actually never had to lock your doors. After the service got a good job and actually lived in a ten acre woods with four other neighbors about two miles from town and loved it. Retired and moved five hundred miles to a much larger metropolis to be close to grandkids. Love the place and although the traffic can be a pain it has world class medical facilities and everything a large city has to offer. I'd never go back to the small town again. In fact when I do go back it is rather depressing, most of the good manufacturing jobs are long gone and drugs have become a real problem. Unless you are a professional; dentist, lawyer, doctor, CPA or own a business, there is simply not much opportunity. Just my take and perspective.

 

[imoldernu]

a bit more on the lobster thing...

In Canada, exports to China through June were already approaching 33 million pounds, which is nearly as much as all of 2018.

The value of Canada’s exports was nearing US$200 million through June and was almost sure to outstrip last year’s total of more than US$223 million. America’s exports through June were valued at less than US$19 million, more than US$70 million behind where they were through June 2018.

America has exported less than 2.2 million pounds (1 million kilograms) of lobster to China this year through June, according to data from the U.S. federal government. The country exported nearly 12 million pounds during that same period last year. That’s a more than 80 per cent drop.

 

[upupandaway]

DelMonte Foods just notified 600 workers in our next-door town of Mendota, IL, (pop. 7900) of the local plan closing.

I hadn't heard about the DelMonte plant in Mendota closing down. That will be a lot of displaced workers without much other industry in the area to absorb them. When we were buying a house a few years ago my family would have loved for us to move to the Ottawa IL area to be closer. I looked hard at the situation and the amount of opportunities available especially with me being in an IT field were almost non-existent.

Although some will say that this is the way of life and it has been happening for 100s of years it doesn't make it any less impactful to those that are going through it. Especially the ones that have not financially or mentally prepared for a sudden relocation.

* Whenever I hear Mendota I think of the Earlville Drive In. I'm glad to see it's still open and $9 for a double feature in the open air isn't bad.

 

[aja8888]

About lobster exports....we should just keep the lobster production here and sell it to Americans. I bought a few from "Maine Lobster" (retail online) this year and had them shipped to me in Texas. Brings back the memories of living in Connecticut.

I'm sure what I paid for the lobsters was much more than the Chinese are paying for them!

We need to do more of this in the good old USA...use what we produce internally.

 

[imoldernu]

Just a word about our town...
After living in 22 different homes, we have found our nirvana.

Peru, is a great small town... well run, keeping taxes low and offering so many benefits. While we live in the CCRC, we spend a lot of time in the town and its' facilities. The town is not operating under a ton of debt.
-Schools are excellent
-Next to the Community College
-Two really great, nationally recognized hospitals
-Excellent Police and Fire Departments. Low crime rate
-All major retail operations within 2 miles
-Low traffic... especially great because of few red lights... mostly stop signs where observance is incredibly prefect.... after living in a dog eat dog "I dare you" city.
-Low utility rates. Hydro from the Illinois River and a wind power grid.
-Clean, much older 1870+ homes in the heart of town, and where we live, all modern higher end homes with great roads.
-15 minutes from Starved Rock State park... (where we are going tomorrow).
-Nicest small city park in Illinois... (Baker Lake Park)
-At the crossroads of the two main N/S and E/W highways in Illinois. Rtes. 39 and 80.
-Young people grow up with discipline and learned courtesy, and they still play in the streets and ride bikes.
- Our CCRC is affordable... about 1/2 the cost of similar facilities in Chicago.
-
... and the people... extremely nice and friendly. Everyone waves... and wherever you go, people smile, and are ready to talk... anytime... just like it was where we grew up 70+ years ago.

So far, most of the local farms are still in business, and we have three large well paying manufacturers that were new in the past 20 years.

I only wish some of the nearby towns were as lucky. For some the outlook is grim.


-

 

[imoldernu]

About lobster exports....we should just keep the lobster production here and sell it to Americans. I bought a few from "Maine Lobster" (retail online) this year and had them shipped to me in Texas. Brings back the memories of living in Connecticut.

I'm sure what I paid for the lobsters was much more than the Chinese are paying for them!

We need to do more of this in the good old USA...use what we produce internally.

After the U.S. lobster businesses go under, you'll be able to buy from Canada. Maybe the prices will be lower, but I kinda doubt it.

When you lose 80% of the sales you used to have last year, it's kind of hard to continue. Or maybe the businesses can sell their lobsters for $.50/lb. and sell just as many lobsters they lost, while Canada continues to sell to China, where Chinese retail customers pay @$18 to $25/lib.

 

[DFDubb]

Wow, I guess to you small rural towns have zero redeeming features. You make it sound like turning 18 and getting out is akin to a jail break. You lump every single person that stayed into the same category. No, they are not all broke, and they don't all spend their time at the bar complaining about how awful their lives are. You're pretty judgmental to say they think hunting is more important to them then providing for their families.

Small towns are like big towns, some people are happy and some are not.But don't lump all small town people into the same category. I don't even live in a small town, I live in a township with a population of a couple hundred people. Wonder where I fit in?

That probably came out in a way that I had not intended.

There's certainly many redeeming qualities about small town life. It's not for me, but I get it and I've been exposed to it intimately since getting married (at one very far extreme I admit, pop. less than 750). I just don't see it as sustainable and many of the folks I'm speaking about know that, but continue to hang tight while they and their families become poorer and poorer. In my spouse's hometown, there is a bar, a post office, a gas station, and last I was there one other diner. Beyond that there are things like people cutting hair and preparing taxes out of their house. I just don't see the opportunity in a place like that. There was once a factory, but that's not coming back no matter how bad the residents want it. And if it does, move back! The nearest town with a grocery store is 20 miles, no internet (aside from expensive satellite) roaming voice only cell service. Everyone is still trying to farm and again, becoming poorer doing so each year. I can walk into an Aldi and buy a giant bag of onions for like a buck, there are no small farmers efficient enough to compete with that, it simply doesn't exist anymore even without tarrifs.

 

[Jeffman52]

I'll take my country 10 acres, that is 10 miles from any town, ANY DAY, over any city ! I am truly glad that "city folk" like all the ammenities, and opportunities of the busy metro areas, it keeps them out of my area, where without fail, they want to complain about the smells, and sounds of the 4 generation farm next door.

+1

I currently live more city than I ever have in my life. Moved close to Cincinnati with my wife so we can help my FIL
stay in his home as long as possible. (he is 89 but they have great longevity genes) After he passes and we retire (probably about the same time) its back to the country and rural life for me.

*Starts singing the theme from Green Acres*

Land spreading out so far and wide! Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside!!

 

[Pellice]

A couple of disparate observations. First, human migration is the normal state of affairs. The causes may be different (but are probably related), but vast movements of people have been the norm from earliest times. The early mythology and history of Rome, for example, is deeply intertwined with the migration of Celtic peoples, moving west from Asia Minor (Galatia in Turkey, Gaul - France, Galicia in Spain, Celts in NW Europe). The later history of Rome is deeply intertwined with the movements of Germanic peoples.

The aftermath of WWII saw the largest movements of peoples and borders in history.

The rural landscape is periodically populated and depopulated. I was in a tiny town on the border of France and Italy in 1983, talking with an elderly British woman who had settled there, and I remember her saying, "Nobody wants to live on a poky farm in the mountains," speaking of Piedmontese who were moving to Milan to work in factories.

So the movement of people is to be expected. What seems odd to me is that it seems to be getting harder for people to move. It's harder to leave your elders behind because no other relatives are nearby either - and the US policy, at least, is not picking up their care. The "village" no longer exists. And expectations are higher. You can't move with your kids and just turn them out to play (and work) while you are working. Your spouse is working too! And all the neighbors. Your older relatives were left behind, so they can not help, and in fact need help themselves. The "just in time" demands of modern life mean a sick dog can be a disaster in a big city without people you know. And it's impossible to get a cheap place for a few years. You need someplace to park your car.

Secondly, I simply cannot believe in the viability of mega-cities. At some point, they will have to collapse due to the increase in costs vs. benefits. I live on the warehouse periphery of NYC, and watch in amazement at the endless parade of trucks attempting to supply the metropolis. The public transportation is breaking down, the airports are at capacity, the infrastructure needs upgrades that are not affordable, and people are stretched to their limits. 10 million plus inhabitants seems to me to be unsustainable at current technological levels. I wonder if I will be alive to see a collapse?

 

[imoldernu]

A couple of disparate observations.....

Thank you for an excellent post!

So well written and complete. Real life changes from what most of us remember when we were younger. It's only when it's all put together that we can understand just how much has changed in our own lifetimes.

Probably a negative, but I'm thankful for the life we have enjoyed, and look at every day as an "extra" realizing that the clock is ticking down.

And yes... it's not just "rural", though that's the easiest comparison.

 

[pj.mask]

A few other comments.

I anxiously await the day when we stop herding 30 or 40 kids into a classroom for 6+ hours of "education" each day. I applaud those that have embarked on homeschooling and other alternatives to our 17th century, agrarian designed educational system. Distance leaning, outdoor engagement, small group settings, and other alternative approaches can all complement or replace student warehousing. Spending $10-15K per student is a result of our outdated approach, and it is entirely unwarranted. As just a small example, why do most textbooks even exist today?

I found most of the text books I read fascinating. I can’t imagine spending my days outside watching plants grow or animals breed without knowing at a fundamental level what is going on. Plumbing = fluid dynamics, welding = metallurgy and phases of materials, kinetics, materials, etc.

You may not be interested in book learning and there is nothing wrong with that. The world needs apprentices, day laborers, and those who can just get things done. Perhaps you should consider that school may be boring and useless to some people but those who are excited by it (actually a large percent of the kids) go on to accomplish great things building off of the knowledge of prior generations stored in those books. I think if you look at the total cost divided only by those who succeed academically, while that costs a lot more per person - their accomplishments have such a large return on investment that it all works out.

 

[RobbieB]

About lobster exports....we should just keep the lobster production here and sell it to Americans. I bought a few from "Maine Lobster" (retail online) this year and had them shipped to me in Texas. Brings back the memories of living in Connecticut.

I'm sure what I paid for the lobsters was much more than the Chinese are paying for them!

We need to do more of this in the good old USA...use what we produce internally.

I'mma gonna make me up a couple of lobster rolls with the 2 pounds of fresh claw meat I got today from my fav lobster house in Maine.

Yeah, eat them lobsters guys, open those wallets and support the USA! Don't let the Chinese get all our good stuff -

 

[Arizona1]

It’s a shame that people work so hard to buy a nice home and raise a family then find themselves in a depressed town or city where the tax revenues will not even keep up with the road or utility infrastructure.
We vacationed in a small town in Bavaria a few years ago that had a can opener factory in it. It got me looking at what was sold in the stores while we traveled around the country. All the ones I saw were made in Germany and were all about seven euros. Never saw a made in America product of any kind the 18 months we were there.