Calculators and following the dow daily

[runnerr]

Hello, I realize that financial calculators are used JUST as guide to helping one understand where they might be financially in the future. I was interested in knowing what are considered the best calculators in the onions of the readers of this home page. Please give me your opinions and express why you think so. Even though the calculators are only a guide they do sometimes make one feel more secure…but that might not be good.

Another question; I find myself following the DOW on a day to day bases how can I break this habit and do others have the same problem.

Thanks for your replies, Runnerr

 

[malakito]

Calculators: Depends on what you want. Try the Excel spreadsheets at www.retireearlyhomepage.com. Also the "i-orp" calculator seems to be held in high regard. Personally I "rolled my own" because I wanted to know what assumptions were being made and how the calculations were being made.

Dow: Stop doing that.

malakito.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Another question; I find myself following the DOW on a day to day bases how can I break this habit and do others have the same problem.

I recommend pictures of skimpily clad women.

Also, I have NO calculators in my onions

 

[haha]

One of the nicest things about this board is no one seems ready to jump in and hector people for being OT. I mean, if we are retired haven't we earned the right to be off-topic? What is the topic anyway? I just got up- is it onions? I recommend Vidalia sweet onions, from Georgia. Next best are our very own Walla Walla Sweets. The difference is small, not really calculable.

Mikey

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Well, I can be hectored or heckled about off topics.

Good luck with a behavioral change though...

As far as calculators, I ran them all. They all said I'd probably be ok. None of them know for sure. Neither do I. But I think everybody has to satisfy the mathy/analytical component of their head with regards to early retirement before they can settle down and get comfortable. Reduces the fear of the unknown.

I like firecalc and ORP. One is simple, one is complex. Satisfies the gotta-know-quick-and-dirty impulse and the must-have-the-details.

I spent an afternoon running ORPs and using a DFA portfolio analyzer. Printed out reams of data. Put them in a manilla envelope and put it in the filing cabinet for further future analysis. Apparently the 'future' hasnt arrived yet.

I've been getting some onions from sams club. Some sort of super sweet, I think they're either from hawaii or brazil. And lets face it, whats the difference? They're really good though. Make a nice salsa. Produced a terrific veracruz sauce for some mahi mahi I made sunday night too.

I'm still vaguely uncomfortable about strangers talking about my onions though...

 

[BristolBane]

Another question; I find myself following the DOW on a day to day bases how can I break this habit and do others have the same problem.

I had this problem a few years back when my 401k balance finally got large enough that it would fluctuate a few hundred dollars a day. I remember this, which is significant because I don't have a great memory.

I remember I was invested 100% in the 20th Century Ultra Fund. I bought in when the found was about $36 share. This was just after it had come down from its all time high around $50. It proceeded to go down in the low 20s. What a dog this thing was! Must have been loaded up with a bunch of dot bombs. I think Morningstar was still rating it a 4 star at the time.

Anyway it was killing me to watch my money disappear like this and so I finally sold on a little bounce to $26. A painful, painful loss. Where is Ultra today? $27.45. So at least I didn't stay put in that turd of a fund for years like many others have. And you have to remember, Ultra fund was THE fund for years in the 90s. Money magazine and Morningstar used to gush about it.

Anyway, what I learned about myself is that I don't have high risk tolerance. I need slow and steady. I may have to work 10 years more than some people here but at least my stomach lining will be intact at the end. Ever since then I've been in more conservative, diversified stuff that has made money every year.

So what I'm saying is that if your mind is constantly worried about your investments then that investment style may be clashing with your risk tolerance or some other part of your mental makeup. If you're not worried and just enjoy watching your balance then I guess there's no problem!

 

[runnerr]

Ok, I can take the harassment for miss spelling a word and it is nice to know that there are individuals out there in retirement land that are perfect.  I can guess that none of them have ever misspelled a single word. Must be nice but I would still rather be human and that way have a goal of improving. What do you folks have to live for you are already at perfection?  Thanks to the individuals that overlooked my mistake and were KIND enough to answer the obvious question. One more thing that my help my grammar: Is there a spell check I am missing on the message page?


Thank you, Runnerr

 

[malakito]

Ok, I can take the harassment for miss spelling a word and it is nice to know that there are individuals out there in retirement land that are perfect. I can guess that none of them have ever misspelled a single word. Must be nice but I would still rather be human and that way have a goal of improving. What do you folks have to live for you are already at perfection?

Evidently you can't take it very well. If you can't, this isn't the board for you. However, behind all the smart-a$$ comments are some pretty smart people. If you can grow a thicker skin the knowledge here will help you.

Thanks to the individuals that overlooked my mistake and were KIND enough to answer the obvious question. One more thing that my help my grammar: Is there a spell check I am missing on the message page?

You're welcome, and I don't think there's a spellcheck here.

Thank you, Runnerr

malakito

 

[unclemick]

Thought it was interesting that my portfolio fluctuated one quarter in the minor 2000 - 2003 burp over 200k - more than I rolled over at the end of 92  - (-16.6%). Since my precalc backtested panic point was -22 to 25% a 73-74 type event - I did absolutely nothing.

The pucker factor was there. And I still watch the DOW. But the lead sled dog (75%) is balanced index - so here's to Vangard's computers doing their thing.

 

[Martha]

Runnerr, I can't spell either--too many years of dependency on a secretary. And this isn't school; I don't care if I fail spelling. Used to have a client (which no longer exists so I am not telling tails out of school) by the name of LSPI. I had a new secretary and dictated the client's name. She typed it as "Alice PI." Had fun with that for years. Another time I dictated a memo about "puts" and "calls" where "puts" was typed as "putz".

We have to be able to laugh at ourselves. The "onion" was kind of funny. Spell check wouldn't help with "onion" anyway--it is a word. That is the biggest problem with people relying on spellcheckers. Goofy words get through.

 

[unclemick]

Onions!!!!

When I grew up and lived out West - Walla Walla Sweets.

New Orleans - Vidalia Onions(?Georgia?).

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

We're not only perfect, but we also have a sense of humor!

 

[Cb]

I lost interest in checking the Dow daily after I began checking VTI & EFA every hour or so.

hth,

Cb

 

[ak4195]

runner,if you HAVE to watch the DJ every day,might perhaps consider studying japanese renko style charts and charting by hand.Wont dampen your portfolio gyrations any,but interesting patterns may start to jump out at you.Possibly one of the best things for DJ mania is a slug of diversified/laddered bonds,and watching CD's and rates will positively send you out to the tennis court or any other non market related pursuit.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

runnerr...............the "thick skin" comment was spot on.
It will serve you well in day to day life as well. Man, if you can't handle some flack you will NOT do well here.

JG

 

[REWahoo]

Man, if you can't handle some flack you will NOT do well here.

This from a charter member of Flack Magnets Anonymous.....

REW, 15 days to eR

 

[BUM]

runerr,

Suggestion: Forget canned calculators and set up a spreadsheet without too much detail. Include all accounts, real estate, and valuables perhaps including any life insurance cash value. Sub total each item then subtract any debt. The total is your net worth. Keep your statements handy and update the dang thing a couple times a year.

This is a better picture rather than looking at daily portfolio spasms.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

runerr,

Suggestion: Forget canned calculators and set up a spreadsheet without too much detail. Include all accounts, real estate, and valuables perhaps including any life insurance cash value. Sub total each item then subtract any debt. The total is your net worth. Keep your statements handy and update the dang thing a couple times a year.

This is a better picture rather than looking at daily portfolio spasms.

Good advice! Or, you could use my "back of the envelope"
system.

JG

 

[runnerr]

Hey Bum, great idea and as a matter of fact I just had to do that for a pre nep agreement.
Yes I am finally getting married at 56. I figure with all the honey does list I have already been given and the ones to follow It will limit my time checking the Dow and my portfolio. But I will do as you recommended and put the information on a spread sheet or envelope and keep it up dated.

As for my previous response about readers being critical about spelling (onions or opinions, actually they are both great depending on the situation) I have to apologies and explain. One reason I left the job early is the fact the any little mistake a person made they hammered you for it and not in a joking way. After years of that I developed a conditioned response.  I have to remember that most people are on my side and just joking around, as with the spelling, it is just in fun and not to take it personally.  I am working on it.

Thanks for all the advice and understanding.

Runnerr

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Trust me, we're jokers.

Life is too short to be serious, and speaking for myself, I left all my serious back at the office 4 years ago.

But if you like, I can be serious and you can be roebuck, we'll wait for k-mart to eat the sears name and then we'll start our own department store which will feature a lifelong value stock. Some years from now we'll get some other lame retailer to buy us and we'll be rich. Rich I tell you! Hmm...well, looks like one of us has to be Rich as well as serious and/or roebuck. This is getting complicated.

 

[ESRBob]

Runner,
Good job getting into the spirit of th's onions. I mangle spelling here all the time.

Re: the Dow -- you might ask yourself , "What am I going to do if the Dow is (fill in the blank) up/down 100 points or whatever."

Then before you look at the actual number, commit to yourself what you will actually do with the information.

If you've been here awhile and gotten the long run religiion, you'll realize that you will do absolutely nothing with the information.

That can be the first step to saying, Hmm.... if I am not actually going to take any action based on today's Dow or 3:00's Dow, then I guess I don't really care what it is.

Understand that modern life jerks us all around all the time with lots of things that say, in effect, "look at me, I'm new, I'm important!" and which really aren't important or new at all.

So it gets easier every year (is this the definition of an old Phart?) to just let it come and go as general background noise.

Off to teach my meditation class. That is always an option, btw -- you can meditate on the meaning of the Dow. Think about it long enough and it will lose its iron-cold grip. And you can loosen some of the Dow-hype if you stop listening to the 'news'. Not much new there, either.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Can we stop talking about my onions now? Puhleeeze?

If the dow goes down I think "Excellent...now it just has to go down a lot more and I can put some cash to work!". If it goes up, I think "Excellent...I made money today".

 

[ronin]

As a mantra, I find Tao (pronounced dow) to be very effective.  Now if I could just get the little line on the chart to levitate along with me...

 

[TromboneAl]

I find myself following the DOW on a day to day bases how can I break this habit...

Amazing -- I was going to post the same question!  Today the market has been open for an hour and 45 minutes, and I am struggling against the temptation to click on the favorite that will show me a nice intraday chart of the S&P 500.  It's silly -- I'm a confirmed buy-and-hold long term investor; I've never sold when things are going down, but I can't resist checking.

Also, since I have all my mutual funds with Vanguard, I can easily see how much I've made or lost at the end of each day ("Oops, lost $10,000 today -- better get no topping on the pizza.").

I know that in the past I've gone for months or years without following the market.  Perhaps part of the reason it's so hard now is that it's easy to check.   I'm going to try to resist all of today.  Maybe next week I'll try to go two days without checking.

Twentieth Century Ultra Fund

Here's my good luck story with Ultra: I started investing money in it in 1993 for my daughter's college in her name.  But then one year, it made so much money that I had to file an income tax return for her.  I hate tax paper work so I said "Can't have that!" and moved her money into a high-yield calif muni account.  I didn't care that I was putting a tax-exempt fund in a tax-advantaged account, I wasn't going to file no damn extra tax return.  

Through dumb luck, that was a good time to get out, and the muni fund did well too.  

 

[TromboneAl]

pre nep agreement

Uh oh, now you're really in for it. If you'd said "pre nap agreement" we'd really be off on another OT tangent.

I've been making some bad typos in posts lately.  The other day I wrote "you have to take for a grain of salt" on another forum, and was lectured endlessly about the meaning of the saying.  At least in this forum I can go back and edit mistakes.