COVID-19 -based going to cash jitters?

[Fermion]

No buying here. Not even way-below-market-price puts. Not yet.

At 60% stock AA, I already have plenty.

What are your back up the truck levels?

For me I would buy Tesla at $200, Merck at $65, Gilead at $55

Dream prices (maybe nightmare prices though because we would have to have a full pandemic to get Merck back to $65)

Today with Merck trading at $0.10 discount from Friday? Nope.

 

[Sunset]

A pound of pool shock (calcium hypochlorite powder) is cheap and will last a very long time.

I have about 20 lbs of it, left over after getting rid of my pool.

Of course I'd just have to guess (1 tablespoon ?) to 5 gal of water for the mixure. I do recall that stuff is super strong.

 

[NW-Bound]

What are your back up the truck levels?

For me I would buy Tesla at $200, Merck at $65, Gilead at $55

Dream prices (maybe nightmare prices though because we would have to have a full pandemic to get Merck back to $65)

Today with Merck trading at $0.10 discount from Friday? Nope.

Sounds reasonable to me, although I do not follow the above stocks.

I will add to my existing positions when they drop to 70% of their current value, or maybe even more depending on what will develop with this virus thing.

That drop sounds huge, but then these are very high-beta stocks although their trailing P/E now is about the same as the S&P. These are very sensitive to the economy, and are not the Walmart or Procter and Gamble type.

 

[Fermion]

I mean I really can't complain as our taxable account, which is where we draw our living expenses each year, is up over 15% YTD and is all in cash since Friday. I could stay all in cash for the rest of the year and it would still be considered a "good" year by many.

But fear not, I will get greedy I am sure. Also, I have to keep making money if I am going to pay for Ford differentials out of pocket which should be covered by factory warranties (not bitter at all, nope)

 

[Sunset]

I mean I really can't complain as our taxable account, which is where we draw our living expenses each year, is up over 15% YTD and is all in cash since Friday. I could stay all in cash for the rest of the year and it would still be considered a "good" year by many.

But fear not, I will get greedy I am sure. Also, I have to keep making money if I am going to pay for Ford differentials out of pocket which should be covered by factory warranties (not bitter at all, nope)

Keep posting your trades as you do them, it's always interesting to me, and once I followed one (a tiny amount) and made some easy $.

I nearly followed the CCL (again only a small amount) but didn't, and now of course wish I had.

 

[audreyh1]

With 50/50 allocation in my retirement accounts I already consider myself reasonably conservatively positioned. If stocks drop low enough, at some point I’ll rebalance. I also tend have quite a bit in short-term funds at my disposal. So no changes for me.

 

[Fermion]

Keep posting your trades as you do them, it's always interesting to me, and once I followed one (a tiny amount) and made some easy $.

I nearly followed the CCL (again only a small amount) but didn't, and now of course wish I had.

I would really hate to take you down my rabbit hole.

 

[Bigdawg]

The United States is at risk of being seeded because of our travel, everywhere... but in terms of spread, we are much lower risk than most of the regions experiencing a surge in cases. And I'm not speaking just medical, quarantine or education/hygiene...

30 years ago only 3% of Americans had passports. Today that number is 42%. Most of that gain can be attributed to the requirement to now have a passport to go to Mexico and Canada. Neither of those countries have a significant corona problem (yet).

 

[Gumby]

I have about 20 lbs of it, left over after getting rid of my pool.

Of course I'd just have to guess (1 tablespoon ?) to 5 gal of water for the mixure. I do recall that stuff is super strong.

https://archive.org/details/ost-military-medical-tbmed577/page/n33/mode/2up


This source says to use 1 teaspoon pool shock to 1-1/2 cups of water to make a 5% bleach solution. A gallon of water is 16 cups, so (16 cups/1.5 cups) x 1 tsp = 10.7 tsp pool shock per gallon water. Which is 1/4 cup less 1 tsp.



The bleach from the store is 6% chlorine.

 

[Spock]

https://archive.org/details/ost-military-medical-tbmed577/page/n33/mode/2up


This source says to use 1 teaspoon pool shock to 1-1/2 cups of water to make a 5% bleach solution. A gallon of water is 16 cups, so (16 cups/1.5 cups) x 1 tsp = 10.7 tsp pool shock per gallon water. Which is 1/4 cup less 1 tsp.



The bleach from the store is 6% chlorine.

Just to emphasize the obvious... that is to make the equivalent of a bottle of bleach. You only put a few drops of that bleach into a gallon of water to disinfect it.

 

[Gumby]

Yes, I should have made that clear. About 1/2 teaspoon of that solution would chlorinate 5 gallons of drinking water.

 

[Sunset]

I would really hate to take you down my rabbit hole.

That's why I put in the (a tiny amount) , as I wouldn't want you to worry.
I won't bet the farm as I view it as similar to skilled gambling.

 

[Sunset]

Yes, I should have made that clear. About 1/2 teaspoon of that solution would chlorinate 5 gallons of drinking water.

Thanks for the details and I thought it was clear.

I use bleach when camping on our island, as the natural spring where we get drinking water might not be as clean as some folks claim.

 

[EvrClrx311]

Important to note, that you should stir the water and let it sit for at least 30 minutes. Most of the bleach actually evaporates in that amount of time...

 

[Sunset]

I will explain my camping bleaching technique in case I'm accidentally poisoning myself or not being effective

I have a 5 gallon water jug, when it's mostly empty, I pour in some bleach, about 6 ounces, put the lid on and swish it around to coat everywhere inside.

Then I go to the spring , which is about 1/2 hour away. I fill it with about a quart of water, swish the container a bunch and dump it out, then I fill the contain with 5 gallon of water, cap it and go back to camp.

I figure the swish and dumping out the bleach water leaves some inside, totally random amount but I'm thinking strong enough to clean the water.

I don't taste bleach when I use the water in a couple of days.

Perhaps I'm being wasteful, and could just add 1/2 -> 1 teaspoon of bleach after I have filled the container, which would be good to do if the Covid-19 is around as bleach may become rare. ?

 

[EvrClrx311]

I would imagine that's an effective way to kill any bacteria in the container since the last time it was used, and there probably is enough left behind to essentially then clean the water you added.

 

[NW-Bound]

The chlorine level in my pool is usually around 3 to 5 ppm. Wonder if that's high enough for me to simply float my lettuce in the pool before cutting it up for salad.

 

[VanWinkle]

With 50/50 allocation in my retirement accounts I already consider myself reasonably conservatively positioned. If stocks drop low enough, at some point I’ll rebalance. I also tend have quite a bit in short-term funds at my disposal. So no changes for me.

+1

 

[ejman]

With 50/50 allocation in my retirement accounts I already consider myself reasonably conservatively positioned. If stocks drop low enough, at some point I’ll rebalance. I also tend have quite a bit in short-term funds at my disposal. So no changes for me.

+2 Been there for a long long time ( actually since ER 18 years ago) I use a wide rebalance band so I hardly ever have to do anything. Just the way I like it. Otherwise, if its a major downdraft one can go crazy trying to catch a falling knife and then one runs out of rebalance money.

 

[audreyh1]

+2 Been there for a long long time ( actually since ER 18 years ago) I use a wide rebalance band so I hardly ever have to do anything. Just the way I like it. Otherwise, if its a major downdraft one can go crazy trying to catch a falling knife and then one runs out of rebalance money.

Yep - that came close to happening to me in 2008. I also widened my rebalance bands.

 

[ERD50]

From 2/24 NYTimes:

"Covid-19 seems to spread like influenza, through the air, person to person. Unlike Ebola, SARS and MERS, individuals can transmit this coronavirus before the onset of symptoms or even if they don’t become ill. An infected person appears to spread the disease to an average of 2.6 people. After 10 generations of transmission, with each taking about five or six days, that one initial case has spawned more than 3,500, most with no or mild symptoms, yet probably infectious. The fact that mild cases are difficult to differentiate from colds or the flu only complicates the diagnosis."

With outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy, it appears this is now a pandemic. Markets responded today with South Korean and Italian stock indexes both down 4% and broader markets down 2-3%.

At first read, that scared me (but 2.6 ^ 10 is 14,117?). But accept their 3,500 over ~ 2 months (10 generations @ 5-6 days each) , and then I started thinking, that after another 2 months (another 10 generations), wouldn't most of the population be exposed?

Is there any updated figures for the % that get very ill/die?

With enough quarantine, how long for it to die out? I read in that xkcd cartoon "what If?" book, that if humans each isolated themselves for something like 3 weeks, every virus on the planet would die off. The life cycle in a person is shorter than that, and if they kill the person the virus dies w/o a new host.

-ERD50

 

[brewer12345]

At first read, that scared me (but 2.6 ^ 10 is 14,117?). But accept their 3,500 over ~ 2 months (10 generations @ 5-6 days each) , and then I started thinking, that after another 2 months (another 10 generations), wouldn't most of the population be exposed?

Is there any updated figures for the % that get very ill/die?

With enough quarantine, how long for it to die out? I read in that xkcd cartoon "what If?" book, that if humans each isolated themselves for something like 3 weeks, every virus on the planet would die off. The life cycle in a person is shorter than that, and if they kill the person the virus dies w/o a new host.

-ERD50

I've seen figures that suggest 15 to 20% need medical intervention/hospitalization. Sine most of the data comes out of China, it is suspect and who really knows?

As for quarantines, we tend toward introverts here by a large margin. I'd guess none of us would have that hard a time holing up for a few weeks. Try applying that to the majority of the population that is extroverted and you have a challenge on your hands. Then add in the desperate, idiots, homeless, self absorbed narcissists, etc. who will ignore the rules for whatever reason. Good luck with a quarantine that makes any difference.

 

[ERD50]

I've seen figures that suggest 15 to 20% need medical intervention/hospitalization. Sine most of the data comes out of China, it is suspect and who really knows?

As for quarantines, we tend toward introverts here by a large margin. I'd guess none of us would have that hard a time holing up for a few weeks. Try applying that to the majority of the population that is extroverted and you have a challenge on your hands. Then add in the desperate, idiots, homeless, self absorbed narcissists, etc. who will ignore the rules for whatever reason. Good luck with a quarantine that makes any difference.

I wouldn't expect strict quarantines to be all that effective/possible - I was thinking more of limiting travel between populations. Seems like that virus would die out in a couple months in that area, assuming people are relatively immune to a second infection.

That's not going to eliminate it of course, but it might put a cap on the damage?

Though Ebola was scarier in terms of fatality, this spreads easier, so it scary in a different way.

 

[brewer12345]

I wouldn't expect strict quarantines to be all that effective/possible - I was thinking more of limiting travel between populations. Seems like that virus would die out in a couple months in that area, assuming people are relatively immune to a second infection.

That's not going to eliminate it of course, but it might put a cap on the damage?

Though Ebola was scarier in terms of fatality, this spreads easier, so it scary in a different way.

I think the best we could hope for is that quarantines, isolation and so forth might just slow down the spread and stretch it out long enough so that the hospitals don't get too overwhelmed all at once.

 

[GR111]

For NgineER, my plan for putting cash to work is similar to what you described. I have a shopping list of stocks that I will buy a bit at a time depending on how far the market slumps and impact of the virus. Today’s ~ 3% drop only put these stocks to prices they were at 3-4 weeks ago so I have not started buying yet. If market goes down more this week I will probably start nibbling a bit. If market goes down a lot in the next few weeks I will buy more aggressively.