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Old 02-24-2020, 07:20 AM   #61
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"Only buy stocks that go up, if they don't go up, don't buy them."

If they are going down, sell them before they go down too much, and wait to buy them back when the go back up(but don't wait too long).

When I read these two sentences, it makes it easy for me to stay invested in my plan(50/50) and wonder how other people will fare when they abandon their plan.

Best wishes on your success, and feel free to say"I told you so".

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Old 02-24-2020, 07:22 AM   #62
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Whenever I make a market timing move, I do not expect to hit the exact high or the exact low. If I can buy back at a lower point than when I sell, I call it a success.

History so far shows that buy/hold works. And if you can get a few more points, that's the gravy. It's not easy to make a killing, and I do not intend to.
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Old 02-24-2020, 07:25 AM   #63
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I would add back in when the top 5 headlines are back to things the Kardashians are wearing.
What? The media has not shown the Kardashians with N95 masks yet?

Perhaps they are still waiting for that new designer mask to promote, but the mask manufacturer is having problems securing a production facility outside of China.
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Old 02-24-2020, 07:35 AM   #64
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I have been selling out of terror, not because I like trying to time the markets.
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Old 02-24-2020, 07:39 AM   #65
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Not so sure about that. Even after the ¨news stops¨, it will take some time to know the total effect on corporate earnings.
I actually believe the opposite. The market will start going up before the news flow becomes positive regarding deaths and supply chain issues.

Now when that happens I have no idea.
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Old 02-24-2020, 07:41 AM   #66
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I have been selling out of terror, not because I like trying to time the markets.

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Old 02-24-2020, 07:50 AM   #67
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I am technically market timing I guess. I am still working 32 hrs/wk. I typically invest about 40K/yr in 401K and taxable (sometimes a back door ROTH). Usually 35-38K would go to equities. This year the plan is for only 25-30K go to equities and the rest stay in MM or CD's. Making no changes to already deployed investments. Tons of buffer for DW and I with pensions already collecting. One additional pension on the way for her and SS for both of us some time in the future.
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Old 02-24-2020, 07:58 AM   #68
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One thing I haven't seen discussed as much maybe because it's a bit more in the weeds but seems very important in terms of assessing personal risk to exposure is the environment or region factors at play with the spread. The United States is at risk of being seeded because of our travel, everywhere... but in terms of spread, we are much lower risk than most of the regions experiencing a surge in cases. And I'm not speaking just medical, quarantine or education/hygiene...

It's worth noting COVIS-19 will affect cities and more density populated countries the worst... with cultural factors coming into play as well when it comes to gatherings, eating, religious rituals related to burial or death , etc... the United States tends to have a lot less risk in all of those categories, as well as a lower density per square mile of land:

Population per square mile for countries with the highest number of cases as of this weekend:
China - 377 people per square mile (though 90% of the population of China lives in major cities that are more like 5,000 or more per square mile - like Wuhan)
Hong Kong - 17,521 people per square mile
Singapore - 20,212 people per square mile
South Korea - 1,339 people per square mile
Italy - 518 people per square mile
Japan - 862 people per square mile
North Korea - 546 people per square mile
Thailand - 336 people per square mile
Iran - 131 people per square mile


United States - 87 people per square mile

We do have our share of large cities, and densely populated bubbles. But if (big if there, but I'm sure we will if this gets out of hand) travel is controlled, we have a much lower infection rate because we are much more spread out as a country.
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Old 02-24-2020, 08:10 AM   #69
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^^^ There ya go.

And here in the SW, we have so much land to spread out. As long as our food supply is not completely cut-off, we can survive. As long as there are some farmers still farming, and truckers still trucking, we can get some food.

Maybe I have to rinse all my veggie with bleach before putting it in my salad, but my chance of surviving is higher here than elsewhere.

And I still know how to make homemade bleach (very simple). I first learned that when I was 13 or so, from reading a high-school chemistry textbook.
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Old 02-24-2020, 08:16 AM   #70
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I have been selling out of terror, not because I like trying to time the markets.
+1.

(I'm in the over-60 crowd!!)
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Old 02-24-2020, 08:17 AM   #71
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^^^ There ya go.

And here in the SW, we have so much land to spread out. As long as our food supply is not completely cut-off, we can survive. As long as there are some farmers still farming, and truckers still trucking, we can get some food.

Maybe I have to rinse all my veggie with bleach before putting it in my salad, but my chance of surviving is higher here than elsewhere.

And I still know how to make homemade bleach (very simple). I first learned that when I was 13 or so, from reading a high-school chemistry textbook.
A pound of pool shock (calcium hypochlorite powder) is cheap and will last a very long time.
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Old 02-24-2020, 08:24 AM   #72
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Yes, I still have a 5-gal pail of it for my pool. But in case I run out (unlikely), all I need to make bleach is common salt. Electricity for the electrolysis will come from my solar system.

I mentioned the above in jest. When it gets that bad, will I even be able to buy veggie to wash?

Oh, I have a veggie garden in the back, but in a few more months when it gets to 120F, all the green mustard will go to seed long before that, the snap peas dry to a crumble, and the beans all wilted. You cannot live off the land here in the desert.
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Old 02-24-2020, 08:29 AM   #73
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I have been selling out of terror, not because I like trying to time the markets.
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+1.

(I'm in the over-60 crowd!!)
Me too. But I will do some buying/selling until the zombies invade Wall St.

I still remember, 7 years ago, coming out of a major surgery for a life-threatening disease, and on the 2nd day, I already reached for my laptop to check my positions.
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Old 02-24-2020, 08:44 AM   #74
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Me too. But I will do some buying/selling until the zombies invade Wall St.

I still remember, 7 years ago, coming out of a major surgery for a life-threatening disease, and on the 2nd day, I already reached for my laptop to check my positions.
I think it will be a while before I do any buying. I have jumped in too early repeatedly. Trying not to make that mistake again.

Enough of the Muppets are panicking that Fido has publicly said some cannot access their accounts.
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Old 02-24-2020, 08:50 AM   #75
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No buying here. Not even way-below-market-price puts. Not yet.

At 60% stock AA, I already have plenty.
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Old 02-24-2020, 09:01 AM   #76
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No buying here. Not even way-below-market-price puts. Not yet.

At 60% stock AA, I already have plenty.
What are your back up the truck levels?

For me I would buy Tesla at $200, Merck at $65, Gilead at $55

Dream prices (maybe nightmare prices though because we would have to have a full pandemic to get Merck back to $65)

Today with Merck trading at $0.10 discount from Friday? Nope.
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Old 02-24-2020, 09:05 AM   #77
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A pound of pool shock (calcium hypochlorite powder) is cheap and will last a very long time.
I have about 20 lbs of it, left over after getting rid of my pool.

Of course I'd just have to guess (1 tablespoon ?) to 5 gal of water for the mixure. I do recall that stuff is super strong.
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Old 02-24-2020, 09:08 AM   #78
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What are your back up the truck levels?

For me I would buy Tesla at $200, Merck at $65, Gilead at $55

Dream prices (maybe nightmare prices though because we would have to have a full pandemic to get Merck back to $65)

Today with Merck trading at $0.10 discount from Friday? Nope.

Sounds reasonable to me, although I do not follow the above stocks.

I will add to my existing positions when they drop to 70% of their current value, or maybe even more depending on what will develop with this virus thing.

That drop sounds huge, but then these are very high-beta stocks although their trailing P/E now is about the same as the S&P. These are very sensitive to the economy, and are not the Walmart or Procter and Gamble type.
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Old 02-24-2020, 09:16 AM   #79
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I mean I really can't complain as our taxable account, which is where we draw our living expenses each year, is up over 15% YTD and is all in cash since Friday. I could stay all in cash for the rest of the year and it would still be considered a "good" year by many.

But fear not, I will get greedy I am sure. Also, I have to keep making money if I am going to pay for Ford differentials out of pocket which should be covered by factory warranties (not bitter at all, nope)
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Old 02-24-2020, 09:35 AM   #80
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I mean I really can't complain as our taxable account, which is where we draw our living expenses each year, is up over 15% YTD and is all in cash since Friday. I could stay all in cash for the rest of the year and it would still be considered a "good" year by many.

But fear not, I will get greedy I am sure. Also, I have to keep making money if I am going to pay for Ford differentials out of pocket which should be covered by factory warranties (not bitter at all, nope)
Keep posting your trades as you do them, it's always interesting to me, and once I followed one (a tiny amount) and made some easy $.

I nearly followed the CCL (again only a small amount) but didn't, and now of course wish I had.
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