COVID-19 -based going to cash jitters?

[Mountain skier]

This thread has gone off the deep end. My goodness. Perhaps some of you should drink a nice craft beer and chill

 

[jollystomper]

Events like these is one reason we keep several years of expenses in cash. We will take the lower returns so that the market moves do not hurt in in the short run, and we do not have to make any changes in our expenditures (except for deciding to invest some of the cash).

 

[Clone]

The chlorine level in my pool is usually around 3 to 5 ppm. Wonder if that's high enough for me to simply float my lettuce in the pool before cutting it up for salad.

I have eaten fresh vegetables (most likely organic) in India where they were washed in the river. Downstream from where they wash the water buffalo. Downstream from where they cremate their dead. I would trust the pool lettuce at your zombie party!

This thread has gone off the deep end. My goodness. Perhaps some of you should drink a nice craft beer and chill

How much bleach would you recommend to add to that craft beer to make it drinkable??

Time to put on the gas mask and head for Costco. There will probably be a line of folks hoarding toilet paper! Myself, I am thinking a couple 50 pound bags of beans and a couple 50 pound bags of rice. So long as we have electricity for the Instant Pot- life will be grand at the Zombie party with the pool lettuce, chlorinated craft beer, and survival red beans and rice!

 

[steady saver]

I've seen figures that suggest 15 to 20% need medical intervention/hospitalization. Sine most of the data comes out of China, it is suspect and who really knows?

As for quarantines, we tend toward introverts here by a large margin. I'd guess none of us would have that hard a time holing up for a few weeks. Try applying that to the majority of the population that is extroverted and you have a challenge on your hands. Then add in the desperate, idiots, homeless, self absorbed narcissists, etc. who will ignore the rules for whatever reason. Good luck with a quarantine that makes any difference.

Regarding introversion/extroversion, I thought this was an interesting tidbit to slip in...https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...ority-people-are-not-introverts-or-extroverts

 

[Marc]

I had just finished selling last batch of FXAIX to satisfy cash needs through mid 2022. If market continues to dip, my next batch of cash will come from bond funds so I really don't need to sell stocks until sometime in 2023. Of course, if world goes to hell in a hand basket and I need to cancel future (expensive) cruises my funds will last years longer before needing to liquidate any more stock funds. Even though this is the first real hiccup since retiring in 2017 its actually been easy (so far) not to panic. Of course, I have become really negative about prognosis for world wide pandemic but that is a non-financial concern (I may need to learn how to grill squirrels).

Marc

 

[ncbill]

The chlorine level in my pool is usually around 3 to 5 ppm. Wonder if that's high enough for me to simply float my lettuce in the pool before cutting it up for salad.

In developing countries iodine-based washes are commonly used at home on produce.

 

[sengsational]

Regarding introversion/extroversion, I thought this was an interesting tidbit to slip in...https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...ority-people-are-not-introverts-or-extroverts

A bit more on the link:

Introverts and extroverts exist, but they're exceptions and face disadvantages

 

[EvrClrx311]

a bit off topic for the thread, but with any mention of personality stuff... I love to share some thoughts/experiences.

MBTI is an interesting study... what I've come to appreciate is that the spectrum leaves most people somewhere near the middle of each of the categories. Introversion and Extroversion being one of the most commonly known.

How someone appears, relative to you, depends heavily on where they sit on the spectrum. That is, if you think of -100 as being extremely introverted and +100 as being extremely extroverted... someone sitting at +20 would seem introverted to someone who is +80. Both the +20 and +80 would show extroverted tendencies, but the +20 would be way more balanced in how they energize from alone time as well as interaction. The +80 would tend to want to be around people way more than most extroverts, and might find it really difficult to feel energetic unless they are getting a lot of human interaction.

That said, even the +80 might find themselves social exhausted if they were around a group too long. They just would need a lot more socialization to reach that point.

Every category seems to work similarly... those who tend to be pegged rather high in their categories ( I would know, I'm like 100% N, pretty high I and about 90% T) see their profile as really nailing who they are... but someone (my wife is one of these) who is middle of the road in every category... tend to see the profiles as nothing more than horoscopes that vaguely explain their behavior. In my wife's case... she's an INFJ but she's like under 20 in three categories (she's like +50 in J)... so while she most seems like INFJ, she's very balanced in most all of the categories - and the only place she's high is J, so she shows a very structured nature... organized, likes to plan, not so into winging it. When I showed her profiles, I notices she kind of relates to every MBTI type that ends in J, at least in some way. Makes sense, since she's kind of got a foot in each camp being middle of the road in the other three categories.

From my perspective then... she seems more S... and more E (even those she's actually I) ... and of course, she seems very F to me, because we have about a 100 point difference there (the largest gap between our personalities). It makes for a very good match, at least for both of us but I would say that I find she tends to balance me out, she pulls me away from my tendencies to sit on the fringes and it pulls me out of my shell. I have a tendency to isolate, hyper focus on tasks, and ignore people and social interactions when I'm really energized by a task...

I think most on this forum are INTP and INTJ... similar to me. At least from what I've seen.

 

[tulak]

I went from 72% equities to 50% yesterday.

I’ll be more than ok if I’m wrong, but I think the odds of us going down from here is greater than up. Coronavirus will probably push us into a recession. That hasn’t been accounted for in the market.

Eventually I’ll buy back in. Probably when there are no more quarantines, people can go back to work, and a couple of quarters of earnings to see how things are trending.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have eaten fresh vegetables (most likely organic) in India where they were washed in the river. Downstream from where they wash the water buffalo. Downstream from where they cremate their dead. I would trust the pool lettuce at your zombie party!

Time to put on the gas mask and head for Costco. There will probably be a line of folks hoarding toilet paper! Myself, I am thinking a couple 50 pound bags of beans and a couple 50 pound bags of rice. So long as we have electricity for the Instant Pot- life will be grand at the Zombie party with the pool lettuce, chlorinated craft beer, and survival red beans and rice!

If you survive the water from the river Ganges (I have not been there), you do not fear the coronavirus. Could it be why India has not had an outbreak? Their immunity is strong.

Sorry, but when it gets that bad, I am afraid I will not have enough lettuce to share.

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

I went from 72% equities to 50% yesterday.

I’ll be more than ok if I’m wrong, but I think the odds of us going down from here is greater than up. Coronavirus will probably push us into a recession. That hasn’t been accounted for in the market.

Eventually I’ll buy back in. Probably when there are no more quarantines, people can go back to work, and a couple of quarters of earnings to see how things are trending.

I'm in good company then. I did the same and have the same mindset.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow, so many market timers at ER.org!

 

[NW-Bound]

In developing countries iodine-based washes are commonly used at home on produce.

Iodine is also widely used by campers to disinfect drinking water. And iodine tincture is used on wounds.

The effectiveness of iodine to kill parasites and bacteria has been proven. It also works on virus, but I don't know the required concentration.

 

[REWahoo]

Wow, so many market timers at ER.org!

Yes, it appears "Do as I say, not as I do" should appear on a lot of sig lines.

 

[NW-Bound]

Wow, so many market timers at ER.org!

If you don't "time" something as bad as the coronavirus, then what will you time?

We at ER.org have time on hand to keep up-to-date on this scary stuff.

PS. Hah! Unintended pun with the word "time".

 

[REWahoo]

If you don't "time" something as bad as the coronavirus, then what will you time?

We at ER.org have time on hand to keep up-to-date on this scary stuff.

PS. Hah! Unintended pun with the word "time".

Who has time to time the market when the coronavirus may shorten what time we have left? Waste of time, and I'll say it time and time again!

 

[NW-Bound]

But remember that not every infected person dies. Even Ebola kills only 50%.

Hope springs eternal, particularly as they say the death rate of this puny virus is only 1 or 2%. Pfft. Not even as scary as the asteroid, if you ask me. Does the asteroid care about your age?

I am not yet 80 to be among the truly susceptible. My chance is not shabby. If I make it, the financial reward is there for me to enjoy.

 

[W2R]

Wow, so many market timers at ER.org!

If you don't "time" something as bad as the coronavirus, then what will you time?

Nothing? I know for a fact that my portfolio does better overall if I just leave it alone and let the market work through these dips and valleys. Meanwhile I'll just go play video games instead, and wait this out.

It does look like we may be at the start of a big crash right now, with the market dropping even further today. But timing the market is like going to the casino and putting all one's money on red or on black at the roulette wheel. Sometimes it works, but all too often it doesn't. I'd rather just sit tight.

 

[NW-Bound]

Timing is not for everybody. And it's quite OK if you don't do it.

Actually, I only time the market in this sense: I say the chance for the market to zoom up from here is small. And I say that before the start of this virus. Now with the virus, the chance is negligible if not nil.

And I play accordingly. And that's why I still have 60% stock.

 

[NW-Bound]

But timing the market is like going to the casino and putting all one's money on red or on black at the roulette wheel. Sometimes it works, but all too often it doesn't. I'd rather just sit tight.

It does not have to be that way, as many people think.

Timing the market can be done along the line of Kelly criterion: increasing/decreasing the size of your bet depending on the chance of success. It's not a bet on all or nothing. The chance at the roulette wheel is invariant. The chance of the market is variable, though of course could be misjudged.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion.

In investing, it's also called Tactical AA.

 

[brewer12345]

Wow, so many market timers at ER.org!

I have never prayed at the church of the True Indexer.

 

[tulak]

I’ve never claimed that I’m not a market timer, but this is the first time I’ve ever made this big of a move. And I went through 2008/2009 with a 90%+ equity allocation, buying on the way down (that wasn’t fun).

This time I think it is different. People can’t get to work. Quarantines, highly contagious, higher mortality rate. Companies will likely have terrible earnings. I don’t think that’s been fully priced into the market yet.

And I realized the other day that I’m ok even if I’m wrong. I just don’t see much upside right now.

Also, don’t get me wrong where I think this virus won’t be managed. I only think it’ll be somewhat ugly before we find our new norm. I’m not stockpiling TP.

Btw, also bought two (very) small puts for spy/vwo this morning. I expected a bigger bounce today and am lucky I didn’t procrastinate.

 

[tulak]

If you don't "time" something as bad as the coronavirus, then what will you time?

We at ER.org have time on hand to keep up-to-date on this scary stuff.

PS. Hah! Unintended pun with the word "time".

Agree!

But I still work full time. I still try to keep up, but it’s harder, especially if I need to actively trade. Buy and hold is much easier.

 

[tmm99]

If you survive the water from the river Ganges (I have not been there), you do not fear the coronavirus. Could it be why India has not had an outbreak? Their immunity is strong.

Or maybe India isn't a favourite destination for Chinese tourists.

 

[NW-Bound]

Or India isn't a favourite destination for Chinese tourists.

That is true. However, there's still commerce between the two countries, for example the pharmaceutical supply line between them, hence business travel. Or the infection can be via an intermediary, such as a traveler from a 3rd country.

The risk is of course smaller than with a direct "invasion" by Chinese tourists. But Vietnam seems to do well so far even with that huge risk, and that's why I find it head-scratching.

PS. And all it takes is one infected person, as they found out in Italy. Perhaps India already has the virus, but nobody knows it yet, or cares.