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Old 02-25-2020, 03:28 PM   #141
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Water buffalo require washing?
I think some of them are "dry clean only".
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:42 PM   #142
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You sound just like a girl I dated in high school...
I'm literally [emoji23]. Who says pandemics can't be fun?Screenshot_20200225-144128_Google.jpeg
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:48 PM   #143
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How did you do with her? Did you get what you wanted?


PS. Come to think of it, I do sound like that girl. The market will not be able to seduce me, to lure me in. I am not easy to get.
Hopefully he didn't get a different type of virus from her......
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:49 PM   #144
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All I know is if we have another 15 days like the last two I'll finally be able to get the money back into the market that I got out in 2008. I knew my time would come. And maybe Apple will get back down to my buy point of $89. Woo hoo! Bring it on!
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:52 PM   #145
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I have never prayed at the church of the True Indexer.
Well is it possibly different this time in terms of that there "appears" to be a specific event causing this drop which "could" be known as to when it ends - meaning a vaccine of sorts.
This was not the case in 200 or 2008.

Nevertheless, just played off now 6% to Treasuries last week while still keeping in my bands.
This is new to me in terms of really following it, but didn't do anything in Dec 18, so no more reductions in equities for me.
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:29 PM   #146
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May 15, 2020 SPY $250 puts are still only about $1.30 right now.

Now I am not saying at all that these will pay off, but they could be considered a little bit of insurance.

The way I see it, either this thing blows over or it is very serious. On the very serious side of things (3% to 5% mortality rate, cities on lockdown), I would not be surprised at all to see SPY trading for $200 by May.

200 of those puts would cost you $26,000 but would be worth $1,000,000 (or a bit more) if things get serious.

Of course if things are that serious, then you probably have a 5% chance of dying and not even seeing the money.
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Old 02-26-2020, 01:14 PM   #147
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Of course if things are that serious, then you probably have a 5% chance of dying and not even seeing the money.
Depends on your age. If you are 80+, the risk is a lot higher than 5%. But then, old people do not "time" the market. Even without the virus, they do not have much "time in the market" either.

But as I recall, you are not even 60 yet. The risk from the virus is lower for you. Plenty of time to enjoy your loot. Trade away!
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Old 02-26-2020, 02:49 PM   #148
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So far 59 confirmed COVID-19 cases in U.S. Also this flu season, the 'regular' flu has hospitalized 280-500,000 and killed 16-41,000. Just in the U.S.

Perspective, people...
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:08 PM   #149
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So far 59 confirmed COVID-19 cases in U.S. Also this flu season, the 'regular' flu has hospitalized 280-500,000 and killed 16-41,000. Just in the U.S.

Perspective, people...

COVID-19 hasn't started spreading through the community in the U.S. yet. It will be a lot worse than the regular flu when that happens. It's many times more fatal than the regular flu, plus there is no vaccine, a long incubation period, it can be spread even from those who are asymptomatic, and people don't build long term immunity to it, so you can be hit multiple times with it. It looks potentially and most likely pretty bad from my perspective - it's just a matter of time in this country.
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:09 PM   #150
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So far 59 confirmed COVID-19 cases in U.S...

Perspective, people...
Currently, yes. And we all want or hope to keep it that way.

Germany Health Minister just sounded an alarm that Germany is facing an epidemic. Several Germans fell sick, and they didn't know how they got infected.

The minister said they lost the ability to track the virus infection. This to me means that they expect more cases to surface when the incubation period is over.

I don't believe that health officials all around the world are a bunch of chicken. And they would not want to scare their populace for nothing.
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:20 PM   #151
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Water buffalo require washing?
Very common to see folks washing their water buffalo and other animals in the river. I don't remember exactly what road we were on, but it was common to see camels pulling carts with straw (headed for the brick factories), ox or buffalo cultivating corn, elephants moving pipes for a public works project of some type, and goats being driven somewhere. I need to find those pictures and put them on the wall of the guest bedroom.



(not my pic, but a common scene)
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:32 PM   #152
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We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:39 PM   #153
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We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.
I've "lightened up" considerably too (22% equities) and may sell those and go 100% fixed income if this gets worse. DW @ 74.5 years old is handicapped and has severe COPD and I am going on 77, but healthy. We can't let our saving go to pot on a wish that it will recover in a decade.
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:42 PM   #154
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Very common to see folks washing their water buffalo and other animals in the river...
That is nowhere as bad as what I read about "water burial", where corpses of the deceased are put out on the river to float downstream. Some poor families who could not afford cremation did this, and I am not sure if this is still going on.
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Old 02-26-2020, 04:41 PM   #155
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We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.
Perhaps look for the one off CD deals in Credit Unions.
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Old 02-26-2020, 05:05 PM   #156
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Sounds right to me, applicable to casinos, the market or the race track. These sorts of discussions remind me of a tune called “Fugue For Tinhorns” from the musical Guys and Dolls:

https://youtu.be/BAIlVCStp3c
Once you are in the market, even when you buy/hold you are making a wager. You bet on status quo, that the market will behave as it did in the past.

It could be the smartest bet, but still a bet, because there is never any guarantee of that.

I bet that the market is better than the alternatives, hence I still have 60% in it, even if its future return will not be as good as in the past. Still, just a wager. There is never any guarantee.
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Old 02-26-2020, 05:19 PM   #157
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Depends on your age. If you are 80+, the risk is a lot higher than 5%. But then, old people do not "time" the market. Even without the virus, they do not have much "time in the market" either.

But as I recall, you are not even 60 yet. The risk from the virus is lower for you. Plenty of time to enjoy your loot. Trade away!
We had a previously scheduled meeting today of our Emergency Prepareness committee at the CCRC where we live. One of the members is a retired pathologist. He brought the following stats showing the risk of dying once infected by Covid 19 from the Chinese CCDC:
80+ yo 14.8%
70-79 8.9
60-69 3.6
50-59 1.3
40-49 0,4
The above info does NOT describe the share of death only the probability (nbr of deaths/nbr of cases).
He also saiid the Chinese data indicated for the 80+ group who also had compromised health when infected, the risk was nearly 50% chance of death.
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Old 02-26-2020, 05:25 PM   #158
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Thanks for the info.

All of the 80-year-olds I know have some chronic conditions of some kind. It's only a matter of degree.
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Old 02-26-2020, 06:09 PM   #159
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We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.
Wellesley?
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Old 02-26-2020, 07:11 PM   #160
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We had a previously scheduled meeting today of our Emergency Prepareness committee at the CCRC where we live. One of the members is a retired pathologist. He brought the following stats showing the risk of dying once infected by Covid 19 from the Chinese CCDC:
80+ yo 14.8%
70-79 8.9
60-69 3.6
50-59 1.3
40-49 0,4
The above info does NOT describe the share of death only the probability (nbr of deaths/nbr of cases).
He also saiid the Chinese data indicated for the 80+ group who also had compromised health when infected, the risk was nearly 50% chance of death.
Yeah, looks like that matches up with this study:

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate | CIDRAP
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