COVID-19 -based going to cash jitters?

[Clone]

Water buffalo require washing?

Very common to see folks washing their water buffalo and other animals in the river. I don't remember exactly what road we were on, but it was common to see camels pulling carts with straw (headed for the brick factories), ox or buffalo cultivating corn, elephants moving pipes for a public works project of some type, and goats being driven somewhere. I need to find those pictures and put them on the wall of the guest bedroom.

(not my pic, but a common scene)

 

[Brat]

We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.

 

[aja8888]

We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.

I've "lightened up" considerably too (22% equities) and may sell those and go 100% fixed income if this gets worse. DW @ 74.5 years old is handicapped and has severe COPD and I am going on 77, but healthy. We can't let our saving go to pot on a wish that it will recover in a decade.

 

[NW-Bound]

Very common to see folks washing their water buffalo and other animals in the river...

That is nowhere as bad as what I read about "water burial", where corpses of the deceased are put out on the river to float downstream. Some poor families who could not afford cremation did this, and I am not sure if this is still going on.

 

[Dtail]

We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.

Perhaps look for the one off CD deals in Credit Unions.

 

[NW-Bound]

Sounds right to me, applicable to casinos, the market or the race track. These sorts of discussions remind me of a tune called “Fugue For Tinhorns” from the musical Guys and Dolls:

https://youtu.be/BAIlVCStp3c

Once you are in the market, even when you buy/hold you are making a wager. You bet on status quo, that the market will behave as it did in the past.

It could be the smartest bet, but still a bet, because there is never any guarantee of that.

I bet that the market is better than the alternatives, hence I still have 60% in it, even if its future return will not be as good as in the past. Still, just a wager. There is never any guarantee.

 

[nwsteve]

Depends on your age. If you are 80+, the risk is a lot higher than 5%. But then, old people do not "time" the market. Even without the virus, they do not have much "time in the market" either.

But as I recall, you are not even 60 yet. The risk from the virus is lower for you. Plenty of time to enjoy your loot. Trade away!

We had a previously scheduled meeting today of our Emergency Prepareness committee at the CCRC where we live. One of the members is a retired pathologist. He brought the following stats showing the risk of dying once infected by Covid 19 from the Chinese CCDC:
80+ yo 14.8%
70-79 8.9
60-69 3.6
50-59 1.3
40-49 0,4
The above info does NOT describe the share of death only the probability (nbr of deaths/nbr of cases).
He also saiid the Chinese data indicated for the 80+ group who also had compromised health when infected, the risk was nearly 50% chance of death.

 

[NW-Bound]

Thanks for the info.

All of the 80-year-olds I know have some chronic conditions of some kind. It's only a matter of degree.

 

[kjpliny]

We have had, almost exclusively, Wellington (60%/40%) in our IRAs for years. DH will be 82 in a week and I have to face the fact that we don't likely have 10 (or even 5) years to recover from an equity blow-out. As much as I love Wellington it had to go. Where we will go I will figure out next week.

Wellesley?

 

[GenXguy]

We had a previously scheduled meeting today of our Emergency Prepareness committee at the CCRC where we live. One of the members is a retired pathologist. He brought the following stats showing the risk of dying once infected by Covid 19 from the Chinese CCDC:
80+ yo 14.8%
70-79 8.9
60-69 3.6
50-59 1.3
40-49 0,4
The above info does NOT describe the share of death only the probability (nbr of deaths/nbr of cases).
He also saiid the Chinese data indicated for the 80+ group who also had compromised health when infected, the risk was nearly 50% chance of death.

Yeah, looks like that matches up with this study:

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate | CIDRAP

 

[brewer12345]

Futures now -400 and change on the news that we apparently have our first untraceable case confirmed in the US, so looks like tomorrow will be another hum dinger.

 

[GenXguy]

COVID-19 hasn't started spreading through the community in the U.S. yet. It will be a lot worse than the regular flu when that happens. It's many times more fatal than the regular flu, plus there is no vaccine, a long incubation period, it can be spread even from those who are asymptomatic, and people don't build long term immunity to it, so you can be hit multiple times with it. It looks potentially and most likely pretty bad from my perspective - it's just a matter of time in this country.

Looks like it's already time to update my post from yesterday!

CDC confirms the first US coronavirus case of 'unknown' origin.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/health/us-cases-coronavirus-community-transmission/index.html

 

[Gumby]

They don't know whether the person was in contact with one of the "travel cases" or may have traveled abroad him or herself. And they may never know, as the patient was on a ventilator when transferred to the US Davis Medical Center, which means he or she is very likely unable to communicate a travel and contact history. Consider also the possibility that someone might not admit that they have recently arrived from China for any number of reasons.

It may well be a case of what is deemed "community transmission", but as yet we don't know. I suspect such a thing has always been inevitable. What I do know is that scare mongering large font headlines are unlikely to improve things.

 

[Brat]

I have heard that he lives near Travis Airforce Base where some from the Princess cruise are quarantined.

 

[Alan]

In an effort to focus the Coronavirus discussions we have decided to close this thread and ask that the discussion continue in the existing thread on the financial aspects of the Coronavirus.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/coronavirus-financial-impact-102006-15.html#post2377125

We have also renamed the other 2 threads dealing with the financial, travel and health aspects of the outbreak to make them easier to find.