Dow over 28,000!

[UnrealizedPotential]

It's me, as a teenager living in Hawaii, back in the 1960's. And thank you for the compliment.

When I look at it, I can almost hear my late mother say "Get that hair out of your eyes!!! " Neither parent was a fan of those bangs.

We were about to go for a ride in my uncle's Jeepster, which was open to the air and that is why my aunt lent me her scarf to cover my long hair.

The hair reminds me of Mary Ann on Gilligans Island. You did say the picture was in Hawaii and so it just reminds me of the show. But it's a good picture and it's kind of fun to see a snapshot in time.

 

[Lsbcal]

Emotionally this feels a little like 2007 when we were flush. So there is an underlying feeling of "when will the hammer come down?". And who cares about world pandemics? Apparently not the US markets.

How to deal with that? I just keep rebalancing when stocks move up another 1% above our target AA. So at least keeping the risk a constant. It is probably somewhat kidding myself but feels like "doing something".

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

In theory there wouldn't have to be a stock market crash to get PE ratios more in line with the historical averages. As I write the DOW is at 29,386. It's climbing fast, but not so fast as to be crazy. Not yet I don't think. But it is getting scarier the higher we climb. Because everyone knows at some point , there will be a bear market.

Or maybe not in the next few years. Why couldn't the market stay high until earnings caught up with the PE? Because something will probably happen to bring the market down before that is a possibility, slim as it is.

I can't worry about what I can't control. In the mean time I will continue to ride the train until it is thrown off the track.

 

[Major Tom]

We make up these pretend cause-and-effect relationships in our minds, because we really, really, REALLY want to be able to correctly predict/control such things. It's only human nature to want to do that.

I couldn't agree more. Speaking more generally, this reminds me of the way that some folk are fond of the saying, "Things happen for a reason". It can be a comforting thought when we're in the thick of things, but I don't quite agree with it. I think that often, things just happen, and we attempt to find the reason, or some kind of pattern in such events.

It might sound like a cynical way of looking at the world but, to me, it is realistic. I like to face situations upfront, as they present themselves, and make the best of them, regardless of the reason they happened.

 

[Gumby]

I couldn't agree more. Speaking more generally, this reminds me of the way that some folk are fond of the saying, "Things happen for a reason". It can be a comforting thought when we're in the thick of things, but I don't quite agree with it. I think that often, things just happen, and we attempt to find the reason, or some kind of pattern in such events.

It might sound like a cynical way of looking at the world but, to me, it is realistic. I like to face situations upfront, as they present themselves, and make the best of them, regardless of the reason they happened.

You mean we don't live in the best of all possible worlds? Is that you, Voltaire?

 

[Major Tom]

You mean we don't live in the best of all possible worlds? Is that you, Voltaire?

He was a sensible and pragmatic fellow, that Voltaire. I have a feeling he would have fitted in well here!

 

[audreyh1]

I couldn't agree more. Speaking more generally, this reminds me of the way that some folk are fond of the saying, "Things happen for a reason". It can be a comforting thought when we're in the thick of things, but I don't quite agree with it. I think that often, things just happen, and we attempt to find the reason, or some kind of pattern in such events.

It might sound like a cynical way of looking at the world but, to me, it is realistic. I like to face situations upfront, as they present themselves, and make the best of them, regardless of the reason they happened.

That "Things happen for a reason" point of view usually comes from believing that a higher power controls your life and the universe. It’s close to fatalism (I have virtually no control over my life, it’s all in all-powerful Diety’s hands) which is common in many cultures around the world.

Other than “accepting what I cannot change”, I never could ascribe to those points of view. In spite of the comfort one might get during troubled times. Just never made sense to me. And I had a very thorough religious education growing up!

 

[DrRoy]

Regarding the death rate, the numbers reported are as follows by John Hopkins CSSE on 2/13/2020:

Confirmed cases 60331 / Death 1369 / Recovered 6055

Does that mean that the death rate is 1369 out of 7424 (1369+6055), or 18%?

I would say 1369/60331 so 2.3%.

Because market movements are just about totally impossible for investors like us to predict.

We make up these pretend cause-and-effect relationships in our minds, because we really, really, REALLY want to be able to correctly predict/control such things. It's only human nature to want to do that. But if we really could predict market movements accurately based on world events like that, then each of us would be a billionaire living on a secluded private island, and unlikely to communicate our secrets to the world.

My best advice? Ignore predictions you read, especially from those who stand to profit by "selling" their predicting capabilities.

Very well said. There was a day in the last week or two where the market declined, supposedly on bad coronavirus news. The next day the news was worse, but the market rose.

 

[audreyh1]

I would say 1369/60331 so 2.3%.



Very well said. There was a day in the last week or two where the market declined, supposedly on bad coronavirus news. The next day the news was worse, but the market rose.

I have been fascinated by the entrenched FOMO attitude of the US markets in the face of a serious economic threat, looking for any excuse, no matter how feeble, to run up the numbers. It can go on for a long time, before it suddenly breaks.....

I just shake my head, observe that I’m currently at my target AA, and go about my other business.

 

[Lsbcal]

I have been fascinated by the entrenched FOMO attitude of the US markets in the face of a serious economic threat, looking for any excuse, no matter how feeble, to run up the numbers. It can go on for a long time, before it suddenly breaks.....

I just shake my head, observe that I’m currently at my target AA, and go about my other business.

Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to measure the FOMO versus other factors. Recent months have seen growth funds beating value by a fair amount. Perhaps that is due to FOMO but they do tend to converge eventually.

 

[NW-Bound]

I would say 1369/60331 so 2.3%.

The rest of the patients who are neither dead nor recovered (52907 out of 60331) cannot stay in limbo forever. After a few weeks, they should be either dead or back to normal.

The problem with using 60331 as the denominator is that it includes recently diagnosed patients, and the disease has not run its course with these patients yet.

Because the total number of cases exploded in the last few weeks and the fate of these recent patients is still undecided, should we not count only the earlier cases?

 

[Lsbcal]

Here is a chart of what I was referring to in my last post. It shows VUG (Vanguard large cap growth), GSPC (the SP500), and VTV (VG large cap value). You can see the divergence of these since the latest market run started at the end of 2018. Recently the divergence has accelerated.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here is a chart of what I was referring to in my last post. It shows VUG (Vanguard large cap growth), GSPC (the SP500), and VTV (VG large cap value). You can see the divergence of these since the latest market run started at the end of 2018. Recently the divergence has accelerated.

It's the new economy. We don't need anything else besides smartphones and computers, and apps like FB and Twitter. If we need anything, Amazon is there to provide it.

 

[Lsbcal]

It's the new economy. We don't need anything else besides smartphones and computers, and apps like FB and Twitter. If we need anything, Amazon is there to provide it.

I don't profess to understand why the markets are valuing things the way they are except that growth companies have good earnings in general. And with a strong dollar you can bet that foreign markets see our growth stocks as tempting investments.

The largest 10 companies in VUG make up 42% of the fund and in order are:

Microsoft Corp.
Apple Inc.
Alphabet Inc.
Amazon.com Inc.
Facebook Inc.
Visa Inc.
Mastercard Inc.
Home Depot Inc.
Comcast Corp.
Boeing Co.

 

[audreyh1]

Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to measure the FOMO versus other factors. Recent months have seen growth funds beating value by a fair amount. Perhaps that is due to FOMO but they do tend to converge eventually.

There are probably also big short squeezes going on.

 

[Time2]

I couldn't agree more. Speaking more generally, this reminds me of the way that some folk are fond of the saying, "Things happen for a reason". It can be a comforting thought when we're in the thick of things, but I don't quite agree with it. I think that often, things just happen, and 'WE' attempt to find the reason, or some kind of pattern in such events.

"WE' and the talking heads in the media, when they discuss market gains or losses. They usually include a cause for either direction in their story.

 

[W2R]

I just shake my head, observe that I’m currently at my target AA, and go about my other business.

I know what you mean! Yesterday I was (once again!) at an all time high for portfolio plus bank accounts. Seems like so far in 2020 I have hit a new high almost every day the market is open. And it's not my investing acumen; it's the market. I just have broad index mutual funds for the most part.

You know that top of the line, expensive Lazy Boy recliner that I just bought in an effort to Blow That Dough? I could have bought more than a dozen recliners like that one just with the gains I saw in my portfolio during the past two weeks. Which is not even a brag; probably others here had even larger gains since my AA is very conservative. Being a "buy and hold" fan, as always I'll do nothing and watch this amazing portfolio growth with a big grin on my face.

 

[Lsbcal]

After W2R's post I am thinking of a new Poll thread which would be:

On a scale of 1 to 10 my degree of market euphoria is ...

 

[Dtail]

I know what you mean! Yesterday I was (once again!) at an all time high for portfolio plus bank accounts. Seems like so far in 2020 I have hit a new high almost every day the market is open. And it's not my investing acumen; it's the market. I just have broad index mutual funds for the most part.

You know that top of the line, expensive Lazy Boy recliner that I just bought in an effort to Blow That Dough? I could have bought more than a dozen recliners like that one just with the gains I saw in my portfolio during the past two weeks. Which is not even a brag; probably others here had even larger gains since my AA is very conservative. Being a "buy and hold" fan, as always I'll do nothing and watch this amazing portfolio growth with a big grin on my face.

I think you have circumvented your "Wh**" comment and gone way past it.

 

[audreyh1]

I also think W2R didn’t notice at least 2 days recently in 2020 where her portfolio dropped.

 

[Time2]

I know what you mean! Yesterday I was (once again!) at an all time high for portfolio plus bank accounts. Seems like so far in 2020 I have hit a new high almost every day the market is open.

Yes, it's been great! 45 days of 2020 and my gains are already more than our yearly living expenses, now, if the rest of the year can just cover the kids tuition. Almost all invested in VTSAX.

 

[street]

I checked my accounts this morning and yesterday I hit another all time high. DJIA is off ~200 point from the high on 02/12/20 but still yesterday looks like the high for me.
Always interesting! Lol

 

[NW-Bound]

I checked my accounts this morning and yesterday I hit another all time high. DJIA is off ~200 point from the high on 02/12/20 but still yesterday looks like the high for me.
Always interesting! Lol

Tech stocks are going through the roof. NASDAQ has more tech stocks, and it keeps setting new high. The S&P also does, but to a lesser level. The Dow 30 does not have as much tech composition, hence it lags.

Buy, buy, buy! The more you buy, the more you win.

 

[Andre1969]

I checked my accounts this morning and yesterday I hit another all time high. DJIA is off ~200 point from the high on 02/12/20 but still yesterday looks like the high for me.
Always interesting! Lol

Same here, for me. So far this year, my investable assets have appreciated more, in just a bit over a month and a half, than what my salary for the year is. Of course, that can go south really quickly. I was doing pretty well for awhile in January, but then had a bit of a smack-down at the end of the month. I was still up, but had dropped from the equivalent of maybe 9 months salary, to maybe 2 1/2 weeks.


I skimmed a bit of profit off yesterday, moving it from more aggressive accounts to more conservative. Not enough to do any real damage in the overall scheme of things, but it at least makes me feel like I'm doing "something".

 

[NW-Bound]

I skimmed a bit of profit off yesterday, moving it from more aggressive accounts to more conservative. Not enough to do any real damage in the overall scheme of things, but it at least makes me feel like I'm doing "something".

I have been tightening my belt, starting in December. Way early. Still have gains, but being the greedy guy that I am, I counted what I left on the table. Oh man!

When you feel greed coming up strong inside you, that's when you get yourself in trouble. Been through this so many times, but you still wonder if this time will be different. Up, up, and away...