Dow over 28,000!

[Another Reader]

When the economy is paralyzed, people staying home and not working for a month now, one would expect that many businesses and private citizens are running out of cash.

Imagine what happens here in the US if 50 or 100 million people suddenly stop getting paychecks. Pandemonium ensues. Not everyone has the means like early retirees here, with lots of money stashed up.

And even if you do have it stashed, there is no guarantee the banks will open to let you have some of that money.

 

[NW-Bound]

China is closer to cashless than the US. I read that they pay for purchases mostly via their smartphone.

I think running out of balance in their bank account is more a problem than not being able to withdraw that money into cash. Their infrastructure of water, electricity, internet, etc..., seems to be working OK still. They should be able to process payments. So I think it's more of a problem of having an empty account.

 

[footenote]

Back story: Chinese banks were already operating under the shadow of too many sketchy loans BEFORE the central govt recently ordered them to be more liberal with borrowers in the wake of COVID19.

Financial Times 2/12/2020:
"Bad debt across [China's] banking system could rise from less than 2 per cent at the end of last year to 6.3 per cent of total assets, S&P research shows — a level not seen for two decades."

So a viral contagion could cause a financial one.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I was getting an investment newsletter at that time, On Feb 11, 2000 the author sent out a 'special alert' and said, sell all equities. I did. Mar 17, 2000 the Nasdaq peaked and 5 months later it was down 70%.

He was a hero for a while, but when 2008 came around, he missed it entirely.

Bob Brinker Moneytalk?
https://www.theretirementspt.com/2018/12/17/bob-brinker-retires-after-32-years-part-1/

 

[NW-Bound]

Bob Brinker Moneytalk?
https://www.theretirementspt.com/2018/12/17/bob-brinker-retires-after-32-years-part-1/

Very interesting story. I never knew of Bob Brinker.

Even more benign financial advisors like Dave Ramsey, I knew about him from this ER forum.

I never get out much.

 

[GravitySucks]

Well this thread has gone from Irrational Exuberance to premature Pending Doom and Gloom pretty quick!

 

[NW-Bound]

Well this thread has gone from Irrational Exuberance to premature Pending Doom and Gloom pretty quick!

Nah! If it were, then I would buy.

 

[GravitySucks]

Nah! If it were, then I would buy.

Ha!
After reading the start of the thread I added Options trading to my account to Put a FANG heavy index. Might still try a small gamble.

 

[W2R]

Well this thread has gone from Irrational Exuberance to premature Pending Doom and Gloom pretty quick!

I know! Any thread here that expresses any happiness about the market always does. But never fear, it has always been like that.

For myself, well, I prefer to allow myself to be happy when the market is going up, and try to be patient and hang on when it isn't. Works for me.

I would have had another all time high (of portfolio plus bank accounts) yesterday, except that my credit card payment for the recliner went through. Oh well! Still pretty close.

 

[Time2]

Bob Brinker Moneytalk?
https://www.theretirementspt.com/2018/12/17/bob-brinker-retires-after-32-years-part-1/

Yes, I started listening very soon after he went on the air. It became a regular with me. I had any work schedule I wanted doing VCR repairs, so I would go in and do repairs while I listened to Bob, from 3pm to 6pm both Sat and Sun. In later years he dropped the Sat show. Bob got me started on no-load mutual funds and I will forever be grateful. I started buying

no-loads when I was about 26 or 27yrs old and continued until retirement. We did very well for a couple that has an inflation adjusted average income of $71k.

Looks like I got the percentage wrong, he said sell 60%, but, I did sell everything.
Although at some point during that time he did say use 35% to buy QQQ and that was a bad call.
I miss the radio show and when he stopped I quit getting his newsletter.

 

[NW-Bound]

Ha!
After reading the start of the thread I added Options trading to my account to Put a FANG heavy index. Might still try a small gamble.

More than a dozen of my covered call option contracts expire worthless today. However, they have to officially expire after market close, before I can sell new covered calls on the shares I hold.

The above is the regulation for shares held in IRA accounts, else I would sell options for March already. For example, what's the chance of a stock regaining to $335/share at market close today, while it is trading at $317 as we speak? That would be a naked call, and I usually avoid it, unless I am absolutely sure.

PS. The above option is down to 1/2 penny a share. I am going to "sacrifice" the change and buy it back, so I can sell a new contract.

 

[jazz4cash]

I was getting an investment newsletter at that time, On Feb 11, 2000 the author sent out a 'special alert' and said, sell all equities. I did. Mar 17, 2000 the Nasdaq peaked and 5 months later it was down 70%.

He was a hero for a while, but when 2008 came around, he missed it entirely.

Brinker?

 

[jazz4cash]

Yes, I started listening very soon after he went on the air. It became a regular with me. I had any work schedule I wanted doing VCR repairs, so I would go in and do repairs while I listened to Bob, from 3pm to 6pm both Sat and Sun. In later years he dropped the Sat show. Bob got me started on no-load mutual funds and I will forever be grateful. I started buying

no-loads when I was about 26 or 27yrs old and continued until retirement. We did very well for a couple that has an inflation adjusted average income of $71k.

Looks like I got the percentage wrong, he said sell 60%, but, I did sell everything.
Although at some point during that time he did say use 35% to buy QQQ and that was a bad call.
I miss the radio show and when he stopped I quit getting his newsletter.

Huge Brinker fan here, but I just never bought into the market timing part although I did lose some money on the QQQ call. I totally bought into the DIY part. I could only get Bob on a distant station so I had go out and listen on the car radio in the driveway in the winter. I cringe at the comparison to Ramsey. Not the same AT ALL

 

[KCGeezer]

It's hard to believe, but at closing today the Dow is 28,005 and the S&P is at 3,120 . Seems so amazing.

With today’s market drops I was curious when this thread started. So much in life depends on your perspective.

 

[Time2]

One of the talking heads, mentioned, to put this in prospective, including dividends, the S&P is up 525% since 2009. Today's drop is meaningless.

 

[razztazz]

One of the talking heads, mentioned, to put this in prospective, including dividends, the S&P is up 525% since 2009. Today's drop is meaningless.

The reality is there's no way of knowing for sure whether or not it's "meaningless." Maybe Mr Head meant 3% vs 525% is a much smaller amount. That's all he can say. And that is meaningless. It sounds like the kind of thing desperate, frightened, people tell themselves in the mirror. Or what some people tell other people to convince themselves. And why do we disparage TV Squawking Heads most of the time (hence the derisive "Talking Heads") and then quote them as a mark of authority when they say what we want to hear. Or want other people to hear? At best I listen to them like sitting around the kitchen table with my brother my smart uncle, ,my dumb uncle, Aunt Sally, and that guy from down the block with the mustache and the dachshund all giving their back-and-forth on things because it's many perspectives. But knowing none of them really knows what they're talking about.

 

[Time2]

The reality is there's no way of knowing for sure whether or not it's "meaningless." Maybe Mr Head meant 3% vs 525% is a much smaller amount. That's all he can say. And that is meaningless.

That's all I mean to infer.

 

[Another Reader]

I don't recall hearing the "W" word, so this is probably just a minor short term correction...

 

[REWahoo]

I don't recall hearing the "W" word...

I heard Wuhan wherever I looked, listened or read...

 

[W2R]

I don't recall hearing the "W" word, so this is probably just a minor short term correction...

Well, I *DID* buy an expensive new high end recliner, right? That's like a physical demonstration of the "W" word.

"WH...!!!"
Oops, cancel that, I meant "WUHAN!! WUHAN!!"
(Right, ReWahoo? )

 

[audreyh1]

Well, the DOW closed below 28,000 today!

Down over 1,000 points.

 

[MichaelB]

Well, the DOW closed below 28,000 today!

Down over 1,000 points.

‘tis but a scratch

 

[TromboneAl]

Living in interesting times.

 

[racy]

I’ve seen this movie before. I never asked for a ticket refund before nor will I now. Guess I’ll go get some popcorn...

 

[tmm99]

It feels like a free fall, but I'm glad DJIA fattened up a bit before the fall, so there's still a long way to go before we'll start feeling the pain...