Down Day in the Market !

[foxfirev5]

I have been profit taking every time I heard the Whee word so I am golden.

Probably only the one true market indicator. Kudos to W2R

 

[NW-Bound]

But one must allow for a delay with the Wh***, as the market kept on climbing another 10%. That delay is most devilish as many posters thought the Wh*** had lost its power, and got complacent.

Again, I did trim my stocks, and the time was right too (mid Jan), but I could have done more (going from 70+ down to 60% instead of down to 50).

Using new cars as a measure, I am down today by an Audi A4. At least, it is not an S8. Now, back to negative for the year.

PS. What do I know about cars, not caring for them? I still don't care, except that when my son bought an S4 a couple of years ago, I looked into what they cost out of curiosity. What the heck? People love cars that much to pay that money? Crazy!

 

[W2R]

Probably only the one true market indicator. Kudos to W2R

But... but... I didn't "Wheee!!!" this time! I need to get my crystal ball tuned up or something. But thanks anyway, got to keep my reputation up.

I'm down a Lamborghini with 2 missing wheels and tires. Hopefully, it'll be 2 Porsches by the end of the week.

As of yesterday I was down a loaded 2018 Highlander, but that's not so bad. I was down 2+ Highlanders the day before.

Luckily, the money for that SUV that I might buy this year, is in the bank and not subject to market volatility.

 

[W2R]

But one must allow for a delay with the Wh***, as the market kept on climbing another 10%. That delay is most devilish as many posters thought the Wh*** had lost its power, and got complacent.

Again, I did trim my stocks, and the time was right too (mid Jan), but I could have done more (going from 70+ down to 60% instead of down to 50).

Using new cars as a measure, I am down today by an Audi A4. At least, it is not an S8. Now, back to negative for the year.

PS. What do I know about cars, not caring for them? I still don't care, except that when my son bought an S4 a couple of years ago, I looked into what they cost out of curiosity. What the heck? People love cars that much to pay that money? Crazy!

AH!!! Now THAT might explain my lack of Wheee!!! The market reflected such utterances from a few months ago. OK, maybe I've still "got it".

 

[NW-Bound]

When the Wheee proclamation was made on Sunday 12-03-2017, the Dow was at 24,141, and the S&P at 2642. They continued to climb to a peak on Friday 1-26-2018, exactly 8 weeks later, before crashing hard. With the Dow at 26,617 and S&P at 2873, the rise was 10.3% and 8.7% respectively.

Next time, the delay time may be different (to keep it treacherous). I think next time I will be on my toe once I hear the Wheee, and at the 1st big drop, dump everything. I won't get out at the exact top, but will not give up too much by getting out too soon, nor for hanging on for too long.

Darn! How many market cycles does it take for me to get it right?

PS. In case you think it's just coincidence, reflect on the fact that for many years, the market kept on climbing. Pundits like Shiller talk about high P/E, etc..., and the market shrugged it all off. Why? There was no Wh*** during that long period. Coincidence?

 

[NW-Bound]

I hope people realize that I was jesting.

Still, whenever a Wheee was made, it was of course after a market run-up into an overvaluation. And when the market was at the top, all it took was a nudge, or someone crying out "Fire", and there would be a stampede out the door. Timing it is very, very tough.

But at this point, having some cash on hand, and also being below my usual stock AA, I am looking to buy more. Don't know the timing yet though. So many good stocks, I wish I had more cash.

 

[RobLJ]

Accidents will happen--but after feeling a surfeit of whee in 2017, I rebalanced 3% of my main account (the one I will start withdrawing from this year) on January 25th.
Next time I rebalance, I will warn y'all, just in case it was not a co-ink-idink. (I think I hit the portfolio high on the next day after I rebalanced.)

 

[Lawrencewendall]

I'm down a Subaru WRX since my all time high on 1/27/2018 but up a MASERATI QUATTROPORTE since 1/1/2017. Some of that is my own contributions and employee match.

 

[Moemg]

a Wheee was made, it was of course after a market run-up into an overvaluation. And when the market was at the top, all it took was a nudge, or someone crying out "Fire", and there would be a stampede out the door. Timing it is very, very tough.

I hate to say this but market timing using the Whee method has been easy and working for me for several years .I did much better using this method than any other .So just call me a rotten Whee market timer !

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, it does work but I delayed the rebalance by 8 weeks, and the market went up another 10% in that time. Much better than doing it right away.

By the way, anybody lost a Rimac? More likely, many of us gained one or more in the last few years.

Again, no car enthusiast here, but I ran across this car made in Croatia (!) yesterday on the Web. This EV boasts 1384 hp, acceleration of 0-100 km/hr (62mph) in 2.5 sec, top speed of 227mph, range of 320 miles. World's fastest electric car. Eat your heart out.

Price: 1,000,000 euros.

 

[street]

^ I hope I'm never down the cost of one of those cars. Especially in just one month. LOL

 

[NW-Bound]

No, hopefully not in one month.

But how about in one year? Like in 2008-2009 recession?

 

[kcowan]

The market was up yesterday. So, that must be total from the recent peak.

I would not mind being down only that much, but it was a lot worse.

At this point, I am barely up for the year. Will see when this is all done, how far back into 2017 I get kicked back to. Hopefully, not all the way to 2016. Oh man, that would be mucho, mucho money to give back.

Yes that was peak to trough. This morning only down $50k!

 

[NW-Bound]

So, you are no longer sleepy and checking the shrinkage of your stash now.

Yes, I am down too, but a bit less than the above, at the moment. It's changing by the minute.

 

[street]

No, hopefully not in one month.

But how about in one year? Like in 2008-2009 recession?

Well I have been through a few of those storms and know there will be more. I could handle that in a year but really don't want it to happen. LOL

 

[NW-Bound]

One has to define "handle". What does it mean?

Yes, I survived the 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 tough times, but did not have enough to lose a Rimac. If I do now, even if it's the same percentage as before, oh man, it's a lot of money.

I would not jump out of the window, or eat cat food. But it would hurt like the dickens.

 

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

Thank you! I woke up on January 16 in a cold sweat, thinking "this simply can't go on forever". So I rebalanced and moved some into cash since we're retiring sometime this year. I hope.

I've done nothing much with my accounts in a long time. I too hope to retire this year, just my luck we repeat 2008 or similar.

 

[easysurfer]

I think the wild swings up and down is the new norm for the immediate future.

Heck, would be too boring otherwise .

 

[Rickt]

We retired Jun, 2017 and am so glad we changed AA from 90/10 to 60/32/8.
Just watching the market drops.....glad to have 3 years' living expenses in cash.
Will rebalance by selling bonds and buying stocks when the rebalance bands are breached.
Cheers.

 

[street]

I've done nothing much with my accounts in a long time. I too hope to retire this year, just my luck we repeat 2008 or similar.

I don't believe there is one time over the other which is best time to retire. I had to give one year notice of my retirement and I did. That was 2015 and things were not so good that year. People kept saying you better not retire but in 2016 I did. I had a plan and if I could not make it in these lean years there was no business me retiring any way. Well it all worked good for me and was glad I retired in a down turn and I did know it was going to get better.

I believe retiring in a bear market is very healthy thing to do. It will make you a better in the end. The people here know how to live through the good and bad so retiring shouldn't be a problem any time if you have a plan for good and the bad market times. You need that plan any way.

 

[NW-Bound]

We have all been really complacent. The market rout so far is technically not even a correction yet. The S&P is down only about 7.5% since the top in Jan 26, and needs to go another 2.5%.

Compare that to the extreme violent moves in 2008, there were days when the S&P dropped close to 10% in a single day. But it also bounced up the same 10% in a single day.

Ah, that was a truly exciting and scary time.

 

[marko]

So, I haven't read through every of the 300+ posts here and this may/may not have come up but here's my question:

The market drop seems to have been a reaction to rising bond rates. Doesn't that mean that those of us with bonds/bond funds will slowly, slowly start to see an increase in our interest payouts? I realize it could take a while (years?) to see an increase; or does this look like a blip on that front?

My HY fund had been paying about 8% back in the day and is now at 5.5%...it would be a welcome change for me!

 

[HadEnuff]

I don't believe there is one time over the other which is best time to retire. I had to give one year notice of my retirement and I did. That was 2015 and things were not so good that year. People kept saying you better not retire but in 2016 I did. I had a plan and if I could not make it in these lean years there was no business me retiring any way. Well it all worked good for me and was glad I retired in a down turn and I did know it was going to get better.

I believe retiring in a bear market is very healthy thing to do. It will make you a better in the end. The people here know how to live through the good and bad so retiring shouldn't be a problem any time if you have a plan for good and the bad market times. You need that plan any way.

totally agree. You have to figure that at some point in your retirement life there will be down markets, stagnant markets, etc etc. If your plan only works if those things don't happen, or if you time things perfectly, you probably don't have a good plan.

 

[NW-Bound]

So, I haven't read through every of the 300+ posts here and this may/may not have come up but here's my question:

The market drop seems to have been a reaction to rising bond rates. Doesn't that mean that those of us with bonds/bond funds will slowly, slowly start to see an increase in our interest payouts? I realize it could take a while (years?) to see an increase; or does this look like a blip on that front?

My HY fund had been paying about 8% back in the day and is now at 5.5%...it would be a welcome change for me!

Well, if a $100K in a bond fund pays $5.5K/yr, when it shrinks to $69K, that $5.5K becomes 8%.

Well, it will not be as bad, but the principal is going to shrink some to help the yield go up.

 

[Hamlet]

We have all been really complacent. The market rout so far is technically not even a correction yet. The S&P is down only about 7.5% since the top in Jan 26, and needs to go another 2.5%.

Compare that to the extreme violent moves in 2008, there were days when the S&P dropped close to 10% in a single day. But it also bounced up the same 10% in a single day.

Ah, that was a truly exciting and scary time.

Be patient, we'll get there.