Down Day in the Market !

By the way, here's another measure of complacency to supplement the Wh*** indicator.

Late in 2017, when the market closed at a new high each day, I would tell my wife how much we "made" that day. It could be a Civic or CRV on a good day. My wife's reaction used to be "Wow!"

Then, just two weeks ago, her reaction was somewhat indifferent. "Yeah?"

I now know I should have sold all. :LOL:
 
Car-Guy said:
Is that an April Fools joke? If not, why so far out?
Click to expand...
Kind of a joke, but maybe not.

You are right. Let's see, a thousand a day... Hmmm... "Dow 20k by Feb 15?" :)
 
Heck, it's cheaper than cat food. If I remember right, local store had them on sale at $1 for 10.

Saving the difference between cat food and ramen, one can use it to buy [-]cheap[/-] less expensive stock. :dance:
 
Last edited:
It's days like this that I give my cash bucket a hug and then relax.
 
A word I have not read here in a long time: capitulation. Anybody venturing a guess as to whether we are there or not?

But I scanned the S&P 500. Red everywhere.

Tech stocks: AAPL -2.75%. GOOGL -4.52%. AMZN -4.68%. NFLX -5.47%

Boring stocks: WMT -2.75%. T -3.68%. JNJ -3.85%.

Only a handful of exceptions: Viacom, Philip Morris, Kellogg, plus a few others.
 
NW-Bound said:
Heck, it's cheaper than cat food. If I remember right, local store had them on sale at $1 for 10.

Saving the difference between cat food and ramen, one can use it to buy [-]cheap[/-] less expensive stock. :dance:
Click to expand...

If that is the case best we stock up on them now, you know what happens when demand exceeds supply :)
 
Cash, oh yeah, I have loads of it. Always do.

The perennial question is how much to keep for myself, and how much to feed the cash guzzling market?

Constant struggle between greed and fear.
 
NW-Bound said:
A word I have not read here in a long time: capitulation. Anybody venturing a guess as to whether we are there or not?
Click to expand...

Capitulation happens when enough people believe their dreams have been crushed by the market. I don't think we are there yet.
 
True. But on the other hand, I do not see anything that will cause the despair equivalent of that in 2008. Unemployment is low, people still have job and money. The only thing that's down is their investment account or 401k.

So, this may be just a correction just like many before. And now that we have breached that 10%, the time to buy may lie just ahead. To be safe, one can just nibble here and there.
 
^ There is only two things you can do in Capitulation. One is hold on and hope that stock recovers in time. 2) you sell and take the loss.

I would hope these stock wouldn't surrender and not be worth nothing.
 
That was a quick fall to correction territory :(.
 
NW-Bound said:
A word I have not read here in a long time: capitulation. Anybody venturing a guess as to whether we are there or not?

But I scanned the S&P 500. Red everywhere.

Tech stocks: AAPL -2.75%. GOOGL -4.52%. AMZN -4.68%. NFLX -5.47%

Boring stocks: WMT -2.75%. T -3.68%. JNJ -3.85%.

Only a handful of exceptions: Viacom, Philip Morris, Kellogg, plus a few others.
Click to expand...
It is hard to read capitulation when you go 9 years without a 20% decline. We are just at 10%, the speed at which we reached this from a point of a year long plus straight up move indicates a strong likelihood most buying has dried up, so this is very likely to be at least a 30% move down before it is over.

Corporations have been buying 500 billion + in the S&P 500 for the past several years, a significant contributor to market demand increasing the market cap of the S&P 500 from the 13 trillion top in 2007 to the 20 trillion top in 2018 outperforming the GDP growth by 18% with the growth in US GDP from 14 to 19 trillion.

A 12% drop gets the S&P 500 back to the same relative value to US GDP as existed at the top of 2007 and world growth has been slower than US growth over that time frame. An additional 10-20% decline on top of the 12% to get to 2007 would not be that large of a move considering the one way nature we arrived here.
 
NW-Bound said:
True. Percentage wise, we had nearly 10% daily drop in 2008. So far, it took several days to drop the same.

But I am still not used to using Audis as a measure of daily loss. I was using Honda Civic before.

And I am still driving Civic. :LOL:

PS. This kicks me back to the end of Sep 2017. How 'bout y'all?
Click to expand...
Sept 2017 for me too. I guess we must all have the standard issue early-retirement.org portfolio :cool:
 
NW-Bound said:
A word I have not read here in a long time: capitulation. Anybody venturing a guess as to whether we are there or not?
Click to expand...

That word always brings to mind this thread, from 11/19/2008:

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...n-or-how-much-more-can-you-stomach-40692.html

Many forum members were frightened. My subjective evaluation of it is that forum members today are considerably calmer today than they were back then.

IIRC the market bottom for that recession was almost four months later on 3/9/2009. So, my conclusion is that IF we are on the verge of the market tanking, we still have quite a long way to go.
 
Makes my Cd portfolio look attractive. If interest rates go up, and we get 4% + for 5 year CDs life will be good. I always said to DW. At 3% return we live well (That is what we get now). At 4% we live a lot better, at 5% we live like Kings.

Canada is paying 3.25% now on 5 year CDs. If that is anything to go by, the US should not be far behind. The US is Bleeding cash, if this bill passes, they will be Hemorrhaging cash, so there will be no other choice than to raise cash by raising rates.....:dance:
 
I guess I might be slightly crazy but I am glad the market is finally going down, since I retire at the end of this year. I would much rather it take its big dip (and hopefully recover) BEFORE I start taking money out of it. Y'all can jump all over me for saying this now.
 
W2R said:
My subjective evaluation of it is that forum members today are considerably calmer today than they were back then.
Click to expand...
True, but at the time that thread was posted the market had been declining for more than a year. Might be interesting to check on this thread a year from now and see how things look. :)
 
Now down a Porcshe and a Lamborghini with all 4 wheels. I didn't need them anyways, as there is no where close around here to drive any of them.
 
Between Cash Stash, dividends and just starting SS at 70, we should be able to weather the storm; plus we can cut back on discretionary spending if push comes to shove.
 
Personally, I welcome this. I'd love another 4% drop tomorrow. That could have something to do with I'm working on the road so I'm getting larger than normal paychecks right now, with larger than normal excess cash flow so I'll have larger than normal 401k contributions tomorrow when I get paid and have more cash than normal to toss into more shares Monday morning though..

Being 5-7 years away from FIRE, I welcome downturns in the market as opportunities to see if I can scrape together some extra cash to buy shares "on sale"...
 
Back to Aug 2017 for me. The beginning of my retirement. We shall see.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
How to approach FIRE projections - llc owner, ACA ins & IDR student loans?
Replies
0
Views
220
tpac
T
2
Reducing stock exposure in Retirement, age 60+
4 5 6
Replies
144
Views
9K
Onda
O
Amethyst
Anyone Holding Templeton Emerging Market Fund/Seeking 1099 Info
Replies
16
Views
567
Amethyst
Amethyst
erkevin
A Serious $%#@ Gripe About the IRS and Related Company
2
Replies
44
Views
3K
Koolau
Koolau
M
leveraged risk parity portfolios
2
Replies
26
Views
1K
mathjak107
M

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom