"FIRE Confessionals in a Bear Market"

[luckydude]

The recent market downturn has struck fear into some FIRE faithful, based on stories shared on the Financial Samurai website:

https://www.financialsamurai.com/fire-confessionals-in-a-bear-market/

The comment section makes for interesting read as usual.

Lucky Dude

 

[brewer12345]

What a bunch of loons.

 

[donheff]

What a bunch of loons.

++++

 

[ugeauxgirl]

As I said in another thread, that guy annoys me. He seems to write controversial articles to draw attention to himself- lots of arguments etc. Like the one he wrote about people who wanted to FIRE being unsuccessful at their careers.

That being said, declines are normal in investing. Anyone who plans for FIRE without including the inevitability in their plans has a good chance of failure. This might be a good thing for those who haven't quit their jobs yet, and a painful lesson for those who did.

 

[ERD50]

My initial reaction, backed up by the other posts was "I'm not gonna read some blogger pontificate".

Yeah, a line like ' The recent market downturn has struck fear into some FIRE faithful," is enough to turn me off. You can find "some" to support any old thing you want. "Some people think the earth is flat".

-ERD50

 

[Perryinva]

+100. Been said multiple times, everyone thinks they are an expert with a plan while the market keeps climbing on average. The silence can be deafening during times like this.

 

[foxfirev5]

Just reinforces why I dropped him from my bookmarks. Everyone should figure it out for themselves.

 

[karen1972]

well I do know the leanFIRE reddits have been surprisingly quite as of late. Like all things something like this tests ones plan and it either works or it doesn't. Some of their numbers were insanely low so maybe this is a blessing and they will re-think their plans.

I'm waiting to see how this plays out for the real estate people, lots of the reddit people have an awful lot invested on the real estate side and I've been downvoted numerous times when I cautioned about how leveraged a number of them were and how little they had for non payment saved away because well you never know if everyone were to stop paying (like they did in 2008) and it was oh that will never happen, maybe it won't, maybe they will be lucky but luck isn't exactly a plan.

 

[WyomingLife]

Not really directly on point, but:

(1) I don't think MMM's original post on the virus has aged well, as some of the commenters there have noted: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-stock-market/

(2) I also recall in a pre-virus post earlier this year MMM said he was foregoing health insurance this year as a "test"; I hope he is well; seems like people make decisions in good times on the assumption that the wheels may never come off. See, e.g., McCrowsky, S. "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking," Airplane! (1980)

 

[Gumby]

Reading that was good reminder of the importance to most people of having a narrative. Virtually everyone enjoys being the hero of their own story. Sadly, the people in the article seemed to prioritize the carefully curated image they presented to the world more than the reality of their actual lives. Now that the illusion is gone, they need to come to grips with the reality. Clearly, it is difficult for some of them.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

Getting closer to my panic threshold but still a little ways off. I retired last year and with all the talk of the bull market crashing, I ran the numbers where I would start to feel the pain. It was about at a 45% correction. I'm at 35% drop now. A little ways to go yet. On the good side, my YTD expenses have lower than expected so that gives me a buffer for the year.

 

[Golfquest20]

The various comments below the article seemed to be mostly legit. The quotes he embedded within the article came off as fake

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Not really directly on point, but:

(1) I don't think MMM's original post on the virus has aged well, as some of the commenters there have noted: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-stock-market/

(2) I also recall in a pre-virus post earlier this year MMM said he was foregoing health insurance this year as a "test"; I hope he is well; seems like people make decisions in good times on the assumption that the wheels may never come off. See, e.g., McCrowsky, S. "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking," Airplane! (1980)

He has made his money from his blog, so it is his faithful followers who will pay the price for following his questionable even in the best of times advice.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

well I do know the leanFIRE reddits have been surprisingly quite as of late. Like all things something like this tests ones plan and it either works or it doesn't. Some of their numbers were insanely low so maybe this is a blessing and they will re-think their plans.

I'm waiting to see how this plays out for the real estate people, lots of the reddit people have an awful lot invested on the real estate side and I've been downvoted numerous times when I cautioned about how leveraged a number of them were and how little they had for non payment saved away because well you never know if everyone were to stop paying (like they did in 2008) and it was oh that will never happen, maybe it won't, maybe they will be lucky but luck isn't exactly a plan.

That just kind of proves the old saying that those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.

 

[pb4uski]

....I also recall in a pre-virus post earlier this year MMM said he was foregoing health insurance this year as a "test"; I hope he is well; seems like people make decisions in good times on the assumption that the wheels may never come off. See, e.g., McCrowsky, S. "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking," Airplane! (1980)

Whoa! You'd have to be a total moron to drop health insurance if you could afford the premiums... it's really wealth insurance, not health insurance.

 

[razztazz]

Whoa! You'd have to be a total moron to drop health insurance if you could afford the premiums... it's really wealth insurance, not health insurance.

Yes, but he has faith in salads and bicycles.

 

[luckydude]

The various comments below the article seemed to be mostly legit. The quotes he embedded within the article came off as fake

I think those quotes, for whatever they are worth, are from his fellow FIRE bloggers whom he reached out for comments.

 

[luckydude]

He has made his money from his blog, so it is his faithful followers who will pay the price for following his questionable even in the best of times advice.

Yep. A lot of these "bloggers" remind me of those people who claim to have a fail-safe "secret" or "system", a sure fire way to make money either thru stock/derivative trading or real estate flipping, and they are so kind-hearted and generous enough to want to share that secret with the rest of us humble folks---for a fee, of course. In this case, this "secret" or "system" is nothing more than a façade that they put up on their blog to try to drive traffic and make money off all the advertising.

I actually find some of FS's posts rather interesting and informative. I think his numbers are genuine, although he has a skewed view of the world and he definitely has a spending problem. But I don't consider him FIREed, as he simply traded his full-time job for another job blogging. Without that blog, he wouldn't be able to make ends meet.

 

[luckydude]

My initial reaction, backed up by the other posts was "I'm not gonna read some blogger pontificate".

Yeah, a line like ' The recent market downturn has struck fear into some FIRE faithful," is enough to turn me off. You can find "some" to support any old thing you want. "Some people think the earth is flat".

-ERD50

To me it's entertainment. I am "locked down" inside the house all day, so I am desperate for entertainment. One needs to take a break from on-line porn now and then for some alternative entertainment options

 

[brewer12345]

Yep. A lot of these "bloggers" remind me of those people who claim to have a fail-safe "secret" or "system", a sure fire way to make money either thru stock/derivative trading or real estate flipping, and they are so kind-hearted and generous enough to want to share that secret with the rest of us humble folks---for a fee, of course. In this case, this "secret" or "system" is nothing more than a façade that they put up on their blog to try to drive traffic and make money off all the advertising.

I actually find some of FS's posts rather interesting and informative. I think his numbers are genuine, although he has a skewed view of the world and he definitely has a spending problem. But I don't consider him FIREed, as he simply traded his full-time job for another job blogging. Without that blog, he wouldn't be able to make ends meet.

Yeah, they all seem like ideological multi level marketing to me.

 

[atmsmshr]

Fools like MMM and Samurai are dangerous to folks who want to DIY and lured by their siren call.

Heck - throw Cramer into that pile. And a lot of other talking heads. Raymond James and Ameriprise to boot.

My Cranky meter is pegged high at a time when good people who have listened to some of these clowns and now are looking at the financial abyss.

 

[ERD50]

To me it's entertainment. I am "locked down" inside the house all day, so I am desperate for entertainment. One needs to take a break from on-line porn now and then for some alternative entertainment options

Oh, I can understand following it for entertainment. There's a science forum I follow occasionally, and they have a strict "no perpetual motion/free-energy discussions, or debunking non-science-y stuff like flat earth, moon-landing, etc". Their point is, it's never ending, and distracts from real science discussions. I get it. But I actually search out those threads, sometimes they get 7 or 8 posts in before a mod shuts it down, and it is weirdly entertaining.

-ERD50

 

[Bryan Barnfellow]

Oh, I can understand following it for entertainment. There's a science forum I follow occasionally, and they have a strict "no perpetual motion/free-energy discussions, or debunking non-science-y stuff like flat earth, moon-landing, etc". Their point is, it's never ending, and distracts from real science discussions. I get it. But I actually search out those threads, sometimes they get 7 or 8 posts in before a mod shuts it down, and it is weirdly entertaining.

-ERD50

Or, the rocket he's riding crashes straight into the flat earth. I've wondered, btw, why a rocket? A hot air balloon would have sufficed, no?

-BB

 

[Chuckanut]

Toss in the Bitcoin advocates who have gone strangely silent these days.

As I write this Bitcoin is under $7000. (Still an amazing price for something that represents nothing, IMO.) A few months ago, it was going to $20,000. And it was a great harbor in the storms of economic uncertainty. It seems to have fallen out of bed starting in February. How did that happen?

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Reading that was good reminder of the importance to most people of having a narrative. Virtually everyone enjoys being the hero of their own story. Sadly, the people in the article seemed to prioritize the carefully curated image they presented to the world more than the reality of their actual lives. Now that the illusion is gone, they need to come to grips with the reality. Clearly, it is difficult for some of them.

This is no surprise to me. They all have a product to sell, and they will do that by "playing the part" even if they are lying to everyone (and themselves).

I mentioned in another thread that MMM has been very quiet lately, and I think a lot of people have caught on to his BS. His most recent venture is opening a commercial space that he rents out to others as a co-w*rking space. Dude has a lot of sources of income...which I guess is good since I would assume that his revenue from the blog is down as much as the stock market.