Full Blown Iran-US WAR - are you reallocating assets ? Black Swan year ?

[nancyfrank232]

So Rockets have been fired. Is this a Black Swan year ?

Zzz

 

[W2R]

Rockets fired and markets up.

See how easy it is to forecast market movements?

Best post in the thread. And yet no matter how many times this is proven and re-proven and pointed out on the forum, most people still think they can expertly forecast market movements.

One of the biggest advantages to a "buy and hold" investment approach, is that it takes emotions and market forecasting completely off the table when it comes to investment decisions.

I have mostly broad index funds in my portfolio. Every January I withdraw the following year's spending money, rebalance to my written asset allocation in my financial plan, and then leave it alone until the next January. I already did all that on January 1st. Not touching anything until January of 2021.

 

[Dash man]

This black swan seems pretty tame to me.

 

[GTFan]

So we don't want speculation threads about future of ACA and such, but this junk is ok?

Hmm...

 

[audreyh1]

At an lovely creek setting RV park in Central Texas we enjoyed a black swan family with 5 gray cygnets herded around by a large white feral goose. The goose acted as their guard protecting them from nosy humans and seemed to decide where they should go in the park. It was pretty cool.

 

[Nemo2]

At an lovely creek setting RV park in Central Texas we enjoyed a black swan family with 5 gray cygnets herded around by a large white feral goose. The goose acted as their guard protecting them from nosy humans and seemed to decide where they should go in the park. It was pretty cool.

That's odd...I've observed that Canada geese are intimidated by (white) swans, and keep well out of their way,

 

[Eucerin]

All is well.......

Regardless of domestic and international concerns that we are face, the market is soaring today......

Is our economy really that solid? or something behind scene that we don't know about

 

[razztazz]

All is well.......Is our economy really that solid? or something behind scene that we don't know about

There always is.

 

[Dtail]

Not bad, 59 posts about a one day <1% loss.

 

[GrayHare]

With the report Iran, and not Boeing, may be responsible for the plane crash there, the Dow is getting close to Mount-Everest-rarefied air, 29029.

 

[MichaelB]

Hate to disappoint, but according to this report things may actually be getting worse. https://www.theonion.com/report-everything-slightly-worse-than-yesterday-1840831289

Emphasizing that the phenomenon is barely perceptible on a daily basis yet significant when observed on the whole, the nation’s top qualitative experts released a report Monday confirming that everything in every significant area of life is, in fact, slightly worse than it was yesterday

The Onion is my go-to for all news that matters ...

 

[foxfirev5]

That's odd...I've observed that Canada geese are intimidated by (white) swans, and keep well out of their way,

Absolutely. The swans on our lake were imported to chase away the Canada geese. However we got more than we bargained for when the swans started killing the young geese.

 

[Eucerin]

One third of the passengers are young canadians on the plane

 

[audreyh1]

That's odd...I've observed that Canada geese are intimidated by (white) swans, and keep well out of their way,

Somehow these waterfowl bonded. It was an odd grouping to be sure. The black swans are not physically as large as the white European mute swan.

 

[Nemo2]

Absolutely. The swans on our lake were imported to chase away the Canada geese. However we got more than we bargained for when the swans started killing the young geese.

I stayed at a conservation area in Ontario about 20 years ago; one swan, (which it turned out was apparently awaiting the arrival of his/her mate), and maybe fifty or sixty Canada geese.

Watched thirty or so geese head to the lake en masse from an embankment - lone swan (exhibiting no aggression that I could discern), quietly swam to and fro a few feet out from the bank. The geese changed their minds.

When the second swan arrived, the pair commandeered one section of the lake for their exclusive use, and permitted the geese access to the rest. (Short term lease, perhaps.)

 

[W2R]

All this talk of swans and black swans! OK, well here's what I have to say:

 

[Rex]

What rockets? What war? Record high stock market today. Life is good. Vote in November.

 

[nancyfrank232]

One third of the passengers are young canadians on the plane

And apparently Iran shot it down

 

[Bir48die]

I ignored this thread until I didn't. Saved five minutes of my life.

 

[Winemaker]

The Russians were gonna kill us all in the Cold War, the Red Chinese during the Korean War, the Russian's again during Viet Nam, UFO's, the hippies during the '60's, the Blacks during the Race Riots/MLK assassination, Acid Rain during the '70's, the uses of bron paper bags Global cooling of the late '70's, UFO's, the cowboy prez. Reagan, the hole in the ozone layer, skin cancer due to lack of sunscreen, Saddam and the Revolutionary Guard during the First Gulf War, Global Warming, the terrorists after 9-11, vaccinations, Saddam again during the 2nd Gulf War, Climate change, the terrorists after the Afghan invasion, rising ocean levels, the elimination of Bin Laden, sunscreen, the use of straws and plastic bags, the Orange Man, UFO's, and now Iran. I don't know how I lived to be 61.

 

[Dtail]

The Russians were gonna kill us all in the Cold War, the Red Chinese during the Korean War, the Russian's again during Viet Nam, UFO's, the hippies during the '60's, the Blacks during the Race Riots/MLK assassination, Acid Rain during the '70's, the uses of bron paper bags Global cooling of the late '70's, UFO's, the cowboy prez. Reagan, the hole in the ozone layer, skin cancer due to lack of sunscreen, Saddam and the Revolutionary Guard during the First Gulf War, Global Warming, the terrorists after 9-11, vaccinations, Saddam again during the 2nd Gulf War, Climate change, the terrorists after the Afghan invasion, rising ocean levels, the elimination of Bin Laden, sunscreen, the use of straws and plastic bags, the Orange Man, UFO's, and now Iran. I don't know how I lived to be 61.

Winemaking perhaps?

 

[Midpack]

Rockets fired and markets up.

See how easy it is to forecast market movements?

Yet the buy low, sell high crowd has to to be reminded every time there’s “bad news.” Long term investors don’t care about short term noise. US markets (along with most others) have trended up for over 100 years including world wars, depressions, recessions, 9/11 and every other malady. And FIRECALC is there to show you your exposure in the worst downturns.

If that trend ever changes permanently, there won’t be any escaping the pain anyway.

 

[W2R]

The Russians were gonna kill us all in the Cold War, the Red Chinese during the Korean War, the Russian's again during Viet Nam, UFO's, the hippies during the '60's, the Blacks during the Race Riots/MLK assassination, Acid Rain during the '70's, the uses of bron paper bags Global cooling of the late '70's, UFO's, the cowboy prez. Reagan, the hole in the ozone layer, skin cancer due to lack of sunscreen, Saddam and the Revolutionary Guard during the First Gulf War, Global Warming, the terrorists after 9-11, vaccinations, Saddam again during the 2nd Gulf War, Climate change, the terrorists after the Afghan invasion, rising ocean levels, the elimination of Bin Laden, sunscreen, the use of straws and plastic bags, the Orange Man, UFO's, and now Iran. I don't know how I lived to be 61.

Wait, you forgot nuclear fallout in the 1950's which was supposed to mean that we who were kids in the 1950's would die in some unspeakably horrible unspecified way long before our time. My neighbors spent a ton of money building an underground bomb shelter in their back yard. And there were all those Duck And Cover drills at school, air raid sirens all over our town (tested regularly on, I think? the first Tuesday of each month), and so on.

 

[braumeister]

Wait, you forgot nuclear fallout in the 1950's which was supposed to mean that we who were kids in the 1950's would die in some unspeakably horrible unspecified way long before our time.

Ah, those wonderful school days.

Children, take these dog tags home. They're to be used in the event you're burned beyond recognition.
And I want an orderly nuclear holocaust.
Two lines, no talking. I'll be taking names!

 

[Walt34]

And there were all those Duck And Cover drills at school, air raid sirens all over our town (tested regularly on, I think? the first Tuesday of each month), and so on.

I remember those drills. Even in elementary school, living eight miles from the D.C. line we were under no delusions that there would be enough of us left to pick up so we thought the whole exercise was pointless.

Classmates referred to it as "bend over and kiss your butt goodbye". Cynical little runts, we were.