Full Blown Iran-US WAR - are you reallocating assets ? Black Swan year ?

[rk911]

black swan year? that’s a new one for me. nope, standing pat.

 

[TheHobbit]

So Rockets have been fired. Is this a Black Swan year ?

Considering what WW II did to the US market — it went up, I’m not exactly worried when a small country lobs rockets in the general direction of a US base and likely missed anything important on purpose because they just aren’t that dumb. What will probably happen from here, is another “measured” response from the US where there is no loss of life but maybe loss of structures or assets.

 

[brewer12345]

It seems pretty clear that neither side is really interested in having a real war. We don't want to invade and Iran is in a weakened economic and military state and its leaders have to pay more attention to retaining their grip on power. So both sides will posture and make gestures, but nobody wants a land war and some bombing/missile strikes don't amount to much.

 

[Dtail]

I don't re-allocate assets based on panic or any scary stories I hear, no matter the source.

But hey, I'm a firm buy-and-holder. Others will disagree.

+1
We had a great year in 2019. Ups/downs - over time it is up.

 

[marko]

I was going to comment but the previous 29 posts pretty much covered what I was going to say. Carry on.

I'm going to the beach this morning.

 

[DrRoy]

I did not react in any way. If I had done so in the past, I would have definitely missed out on significant gains when the market rose after potentially negative events like the Brexit vote, Ukraine war, or 2016 election, even if there was an initial drop. This morning we seem to be setting up for a de-escalation of the Iran situation. We'll see.

 

[marko]

I did not react in any way. If I had done so in the past, I would have definitely missed out on significant gains ...

Yup. Sometimes one's worst case scenario is the result from acting upon one's "plan for a worst case scenario".

 

[audreyh1]

I was just glad that I had completed my rebalance on Jan 2 and was back to my target risk profile, because you never know what’s going to happen next!

 

[Golden sunsets]

I was just glad that I had completed my rebalance on Jan 2 and was back to my target risk profile, because you never know what’s going to happen next!

Same here. Had to sell about 4% of equities to reach our AA which is 51% equities for 2020. Next year AA for equities will be 50% and will remain there for the foreseeable future.

 

[Nemo2]

black swan year? that’s a new one for me. nope, standing pat.

I guess the term hasn't been around that long:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp

 

[Amethyst]

Forty-one since the "My Sharona" parody. It was the background song for a certain fraught period in my young life.

Nothing to do with investing, though. Savings accounts were paying huge interest back then; although, as now, not enough to keep up with inflation.

Hard to believe that Barbara Ann parody song debuted 40 years ago. May no one make a rash decision, investment or otherwise.

 

[target2019]

Swan Year, Groundhog Day. 2020 Acuity.

 

[NW-Bound]

I guess the term hasn't been around that long:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp

The above article mentions the subprime mortgage crisis as a black swan event. I recall that Taleb, the originator of the term, said that it was not a black swan because there were plenty of warning signs during its development.

Back on the current event, it is indeed sudden and unexpected. However, will it have the same effect as 9/11, in order to be called a black swan? I don't think so.

 

[Which Roger]

I don't think a conflict with a Middle Eastern country can be considered a Black Swan, given how many of them we've had over the years.

 

[Nemo2]

Oh it was around well 2008. Seems long to me.

I've seen them in Perth.

 

[audreyh1]

I've seen them in Perth.

I’ve seen them in Texas, LOL!

 

[kgtest]

Maybe the USAF will recall me into the nuclear missile program I was in back in the day?............Oh, wait, I'm 76 and probably too old.

Hey you too? I was out in '02 but I'll never forget the feeling when that Peacekeeper test fired.

 

[jollystomper]

Many of us did that years ago when we decided on our asset allocation.

+1

I look at the current situation more as a potential buying opportunity.

 

[marko]

Too late! Dow up 175

 

[street]

Rockets fired and markets up.

 

[REWahoo]

Rockets fired and markets up.

See how easy it is to forecast market movements?

 

[GravitySucks]

Buy LMT !

Buy LMT a month ago!

How does another war count as a Black Swan? The US had been at war in 2 + countries continuously for the last 18 years.

 

[street]

See how easy it is to forecast market movements?

Easy as pie! Lol

 

[Lsbcal]

So Rockets have been fired. Is this a Black Swan year ?

Many of us are naturally somewhat emotional investors. I understand this as I'm quite emotional on loosing my money.

I recall a TV interview years ago before the Persian Gulf War when the Wall Street guy scoffed at a shooting war developing. I wonder if he kept his job. There was a broad decline in the market in 1990 but the entry by the US in the Persian Gulf War was in August 1990 and before that the yield curve had inverted and unemployment was on the rise. So that geopolitical event just added to real economic problems.

Anyway I haven't found a good way to profit from sudden geopolitical changes. I haven't even found a way to avoid losses in such a case as this. So have decided in advance that this is something I will not trade on.

Now if economic events occur, perhaps because of an overseas event, I might take action. That would be if perhaps, for example, the unemployment rate goes up coupled with SP500 weakness. The opposite is occurring right now.

 

[ncbill]