Half a point?

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Talking heads on the biz news this morning are claiming the prospect of a half point move up by the fed is becoming very plausible.

One guy even went so far as to say he believes they'll raise rates as high as 8%.

Good thing these guys dont know what they're talking about.

 

[brewer12345]

Loons. No way the Fed goes over a quarter point at a time. It is too easy to overshoot otherwise. Now how many quarter points are left...

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I wasnt really listening. Something about productivity numbers coming in way too high and the fed needing to snuff that out.

Lets face it, they'll keep raising until they hurt something, then it'll take 2-3 years to fix THAT, at which point that 'cure' will have caused another ill.

What the %$@#$ is wrong with setting a good neutral rate like 6%, and just leaving it the hell alone? :

 

[Cool Dood]

Me, I'd rather raise half a pint....

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Seems our devolutions today are beer and boobs.

Fair enough.

 

[Andre1969]

Last time the Fed raised the rate by a half-point was around March of 2000. And look where that got us.

 

[boutros]

What the %$@#$ is wrong with setting a good neutral rate like 6%, and just leaving it the hell alone? :

If I remember correctly a stable interest rate environment was the goal of monetary policy in the 70's.  It didn't work out too well.  Enter Paul Volcker in 1979 who decided to use monetary policy decisions to control inflation rates instead.  This policy was continued by Greenspan and hopefully Bernanke.

 

[OldAgePensioner]

In the windy dales of West Riding, near Wakefield in Yorkshire., the accent often make "a aaf point" sound just like "a aaf point".

True.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

If I remember correctly a stable interest rate environment was the goal of monetary policy in the 70's. It didn't work out too well. Enter Paul Volcker in 1979 who decided to use monetary policy decisions to control inflation rates instead. This policy was continued by Greenspan and hopefully Bernanke.

Maybe they just picked the wrong stable rate

 

[Gone4Good]

Now how many quarter points are left...

Conventional wisdom was 2, but now creeping up to 3.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Many, people with an adjustable mortgage are NOT gonna be happy by next year...

 

[brewer12345]

Many, people with an adjustable mortgage are NOT gonna be happy by next year...

Many banks holding adjustable rate mortgages from risky borrowers are NOT gonna be happy either.

 

[Craig]

"Glad" to note the comment above about the last time the Fed did raise half a point ... I knew it had been done before.

When you look at the price of precious metals, and what I've read about the growth in the U.S. money supply, I can believe that (1) inflation is much worse than admitted, and (2) to sustain the value of the currency, we'll see increasing pressure to raise rates.  I'm glad we have lots of international and commodity exposure right now.

Hope we're not headed for 1979 ... or 1988 ... rates, and real estate could get very interesting.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Many banks holding adjustable rate mortgages from risky borrowers are NOT gonna be happy either.

But people standing around with plenty of money in their pockets could end up VERY happy when they start picking up the foreclosures...

 

[brewer12345]

But people standing around with plenty of money in their pockets could end up VERY happy when they start picking up the foreclosures...

That's what I am thinking. HHaving said that, prices have a LOOOOOOONNNNGGGG way to fall before they come in line with rents.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Yes they do.

My interest is in a nice piece of land around here. You used to be able to scarf the stuff up for 20-30k an acre in some areas, now its 10x that price. I'm thinking land will drop off a lot sharper and more quickly than prebuilt properties.

My neighbor across the street really nailed it. Bought his 15-20 acres a few years ago for peanuts, had his dream house built over several years, taking his time and keeping the stress to a minimum, just put his house up for sale this week at what should still be a pretty premium price. Traded a 1500 square foot 10 year old house on a quarter acre for twice the house on a big tract, several ponds and a lot of room to roam.

 

[brewer12345]

Yes they do.

My interest is in a nice piece of land around here.  You used to be able to scarf the stuff up for 20-30k an acre in some areas, now its 10x that price.  I'm thinking land will drop off a lot sharper and more quickly than prebuilt properties.

My neighbor across the street really nailed it.  Bought his 15-20 acres a few years ago for peanuts, had his dream house built over several years, taking his time and keeping the stress to a minimum, just put his house up for sale this week at what should still be a pretty premium price.  Traded a 1500 square foot 10 year old house on a quarter acre for twice the house on a big tract, several ponds and a lot of room to roam. 

I'd buy some land, but I am also interested in condos. There has been huge overbuilding/conversion of condos for a long time and I suspect that when the commode hits the windmill, they will go to a far steeper discount than SFRs. Rent 'em out when they will flow cash and wait for the ride back.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Same thing around here. There are far stricter building codes and requirements for condo's than there are for apartments. So a lot of people are building apartment buildings and then converting them to condo's after a year...avoiding the more stringent and expensive condo requirements. Down near where my dad lives there much be a thousand new buildings with 8-20 units per building...all waiting to become condo's in 1-12 months...

Hitting into a high rate environment and a stalled real estate market...that oughta be real pretty.

 

[brewer12345]

Same thing around here.  There are far stricter building codes and requirements for condo's than there are for apartments.  So a lot of people are building apartment buildings and then converting them to condo's after a year...avoiding the more stringent and expensive condo requirements.  Down near where my dad lives there much be a thousand new buildings with 8-20 units per building...all waiting to become condo's in 1-12 months...

Hitting into a high rate environment and a stalled real estate market...that oughta be real pretty.

Yeah, its even nuttier in Boston. There is nowhere to build, so tehy take big, old houses and chop them into 3 or 4 condos. The condos together sell for a LOT more than the house did.

 

[Outtahere]

That's right Brewer, or they're taking old factory buildings and converting them. Big stink about that here because it's pushing out the little guys and the artist types that use to be able to rent that kind of space pretty cheap.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Yeah, its even nuttier in Boston. There is nowhere to build, so tehy take big, old houses and chop them into 3 or 4 condos. The condos together sell for a LOT more than the house did.

I get a kick out of how it seems they keep filling in the harbor and building stuff further and further out in what used to be water.

I saw some old paintings of the 'boston waterfront' from about the late 1700's/early 1800's. The water came up to where faneuil hall is now.

 

[Nords]

There has been huge overbuilding/conversion of condos for a long time and I suspect that when the commode hits the windmill, they will go to a far steeper discount than SFRs.

Bingo. Welcome to Hawaii...

 

[brewer12345]

Bingo.  Welcome to Hawaii...

Bingo, welcome toprobably the top 50 (100? 150?) RE markets. When the problems start, they will not be confined to just a few areas.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

But people standing around with plenty of money in their pockets could end up VERY happy when they start picking up the foreclosures...

I'm already seeing some foreclosures, but they're on crappy houses that nobody really wants.

 

[brewer12345]

I'm already seeing some foreclosures, but they're on crappy houses that nobody really wants.

Patience, grasshopper.