walkinwood
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I put this in the FIRE and Money forum because it talks about how predictions are made and why so few come true. That's a pretty important topic for us here. After all, we're all predicting that our portfolios will last the rest of our lives.
Nate Silver discusses the limitations and biases that affect predictions, as well as how we should be responding to them. He covers different disciplines from economics and finance to politics, terrorism, baseball and the weather.
I found it a demanding, but interesting and definitely educational read.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't by Nate Silver - Reviews, Discussion, Bookclubs, Lists
The message to his readers is to think probabilistically and to adjust our predictions as new information is obtained. He shows how to do it using bayseian methods.
Nate Silver discusses the limitations and biases that affect predictions, as well as how we should be responding to them. He covers different disciplines from economics and finance to politics, terrorism, baseball and the weather.
I found it a demanding, but interesting and definitely educational read.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't by Nate Silver - Reviews, Discussion, Bookclubs, Lists
The message to his readers is to think probabilistically and to adjust our predictions as new information is obtained. He shows how to do it using bayseian methods.
