S&P 500 Prediction 2024

[MuirWannabe]

5471. Or so I hope.

 

[dmpi]

5145

 

[NervousNellie]

5658

 

[DektolMan]

5463, that's my SWAG

 

[Stormy Kromer]

Warren Buffet said it best. " I have no idea what the market is going to do this year, or next year."

 

[freedom2022]

It is hard to predict with the election and central planning govt & fed skewing the market.

I would think we could go violently sideways, and end up between 4500 and 5000. I also could see a 3500 to bring valuations in line with reality.

May I ask: how did you figure 3500 is in line with reality?

 

[jurgs01]

It is in line with valuations and earnings.

Stocks right now are a casino based on global liquidity, but could mean revert.

 

[jurgs01]

dang... move some to bond??

We could have a classic blow off top, and you could miss some upside.

That said, good minds say to be bearish when the crowd is bullish, and bullish when they are bearish. Look at this thread. 80+% bullish.

 

[target2019]

5,342.20

 

[Go-NoGo]

5389

 

[Qs Laptop]

With interest rates dropping, a strong job market, inflation under control, and assuming no earth shattering political events like war escalation, terrorist attack, oil embargo, etc. I'm going to guess a 14% yearly gain.

5,437.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

4482.

 

[SloHan]

I have consulted with my cat Nacho and we forecast the S&P 500 will gain 18% and be at 5,628.4 by year’s end.

 

[MichealKnight]

Sp500 2024

5025

 

[yhoomajor]

4932

 

[RetireAge50]

+5.76% Total return including dividends

 

[madatrub]

4401

 

[Martlet]

5138

 

[teejayevans]

My 2023 prediction was looking good till Powell decided to goose the market.

The presidential election will throw a lot of uncertainty into this market, as well as the results. I’m going to assume there will be some negativity at the end of the year.
So given that, 4999.

 

[Harris4crna]

5200

Next decade equities will do well. AI is the new Industrial Revolution increasing productivity and therefore increasing earnings.

I bet my money on USA.

You are not alone with this predication. Lee from Fundstrat agrees with you.

 

[FloridaWizard]

Lots of safe, conservative guesses here. I'm going to bet big on an election year, soft landing, and the end of Fed tightening. 6,100

 

[Markola]

5,200

 

[jollystomper]

"After evaluating millions of pieces of data in the blink of an eye, the Gamble-Tron 2000 says the winner is... Cincinnati by 200 points? Why, you worthless hunk of junk..."

Purchased the above Gamble-Tron 2000 at a steep discount. Fed it the relevant historical data. Its conclusions:

- In most presidential election years since (and including) 1928 the S&P 500 finished higher. The record is 20-4.
- The average gain across all of those years is 11.6%. That would put the S&P 500 at roughly 5323.
- 13 is considered an unlucky number, and since half the country will consider the election results unlucky, a gain of 13% puts the S&P 500 at about 5,389.
- This is a leap year, so the nearest century number to that value that is divisible by 4 is 5,400.
- The sum of the day of the month birthdates in our family divided by a hundred is 1.19, added in makes in 5,401.19
- Past performance is not indicative of future results, so add .18

So... my prediction, as guided by the Gamble-Tron 2000, is 5,401.37

(Based on any additional black swan data, I reserve the right to change this before 1/10 11:59PM Pacific time )

 

[Rickt]

I predict S&P 500 will be 5149 (up 8% this year)

 

[Jerry1]

I’m going with 5135.