S&P 500 Prediction 2024

freedom2022 said:
Just realized today is the end of the year for the stock market.
Time to forecast for 2024: 5280.
It is the number wrote down on my note pad. It was the dollar amount of one of my GICs that I renewed today.
Click to expand...

I already predicted 5279. So you literally one upped me. :LOL:

Here's hoping we are both really low.
 
jollystomper said:
My 2024 divisional assessment, based on the songs of Earth, Wind, & Fire.

For those folks whose names are marked with an *, your guess was estimated from your post, probably because you mentioned a percentage and not an exact number.

For those who made multiple predictions, I used the last value found (hopefully my python programming was accurate in picking this out :)).

The "When" column is the timestamp of your post with the guess. Timestamps are EST.

Evil divisionWhenGuess
GravitySucks12-29-2023 07:06 PM4237
madatrub01-01-2024 11:12 PM4401
Out-to-Lunch01-01-2024 11:46 AM4482
Taco12-31-2023 11:09 AM4488
After The Love Has Gone divisionWhenGuess
Koolau*01-04-2024 03:35 PM4579.04
GrayHare01-07-2024 05:25 PM4617
Mr. Tightwad01-04-2024 01:05 PM4617
rayHare12-29-2023 04:31 PM4753
Thats The Way of the World divisionWhenGuess
a60dan12-29-2023 08:24 PM4769.83
Closet_Gamer12-31-2023 09:43 AM4800
yhoomajor01-01-2024 10:36 PM4932
teejayevans01-02-2024 05:14 PM4999
DrRoy12-24-2023 06:26 AM5000
Niuatoputapu12-30-2023 02:15 AM5008
MichealKnight01-01-2024 09:43 PM5025
ksr12-29-2023 07:40 PM5032
RetireAge50*01-01-2024 11:03 PM5044.57
mickeyd12-29-2023 06:58 PM5053.32
Sing a Song divisionWhenGuess
Dtail12-29-2023 04:37 PM5104
FLSUnFIRE12-31-2023 11:19 AM5111.83
Hank12-31-2023 01:08 PM5130
Jerry101-04-2024 12:48 PM5135
Martlet01-02-2024 10:43 AM5138
dmpi12-31-2023 05:39 PM5145
Rickt01-03-2024 01:16 PM5149
exnavynuke12-25-2023 06:41 PM5150
Dash man12-30-2023 12:10 PM5151
Enuff2Eat*12-26-2023 02:23 PM5151.42
Jeffman5201-05-2024 02:45 PM5175
PatrickA512-31-2023 11:14 AM5198
Markola01-03-2024 11:16 AM5200
Onda12-24-2023 05:58 AM5200
racy12-24-2023 06:27 AM5229
Mighty Mighty divisionWhenGuess
SecondCor52112-29-2023 06:35 PM5246.813
HI Bill12-29-2023 10:03 PM5270
Bigdawg12-29-2023 05:44 PM5279
freedom202212-29-2023 07:36 PM5280
Bryan Barnfellow *12-26-2023 10:18 AM5294.51
Gumby12-29-2023 07:10 PM5321
Chuckanut12-31-2023 12:11 PM5322
target201901-01-2024 10:15 AM5342.2
Go-NoGo01-01-2024 10:20 AM5389
Born2Fish12-25-2023 11:46 AM5400
jollystomper01-03-2024 11:17 AM5401.37
JohnDoe12-31-2023 01:31 PM5403
Maximus01-04-2024 02:44 PM5413
Toast12-29-2023 10:07 PM5432
HenryD01-04-2024 02:58 PM5432.1
Qs Laptop01-01-2024 11:23 AM5437
kgtest12-29-2023 04:29 PM5451
DektolMan12-31-2023 07:19 PM5463
MuirWannabe12-31-2023 04:02 PM5471
Let's Groove DivisionWhenGuess
audreyh112-29-2023 07:45 PM5485
cyber88812-31-2023 11:44 AM5485
stephenson*12-25-2023 06:34 PM5485.31
ducky91112-30-2023 12:05 PM5499
Flyfish112-24-2023 06:19 AM5500
frayne12-24-2023 04:39 PM5500
goodguy1_6412-29-2023 04:08 PM5542.54
38Chevy45412-25-2023 06:47 PM5555
tulak12-30-2023 12:18 PM5555
RetiredHappy12-24-2023 10:53 AM5600
SloHan01-01-2024 12:19 PM5628.4
freedomatlast12-31-2023 10:03 AM5657
NervousNellie12-31-2023 06:12 PM5658
Shining Star divisionWhenGuess
F.I.R.E User12-23-2023 09:56 PM6000
FloridaWizard01-03-2024 10:25 AM6100
sengsational01-07-2024 04:38 PM6101
Click to expand...

Thanks for this...and go "Let's groove team"
 
ducky911 said:
Thanks for this...and go "Let's groove team"
Click to expand...

Ok, then bring on the music!

This may be the cheesiest music video ever, but I still like the song. :cool:
Too bad September didn’t fit with the 2024 prediction theme.

My all time fave is Can’t Hide Love.
 
Last edited:
Thanks to jollystomper for the cool EW&F designations to our guesses.:)





Signed,


A resident pessimist.:blush:
 
The S&P500 just crossed its all time high today. It peaked at 4818.62 on 1/4/22 and I see 4818.70 listed as today’s high so far.

ETA: trading above 4820 now. I won’t say it! :hide:

Closed at 4839.81, close to today’s all time high of 4842.07.
 
Last edited:
Mighty, Mighty checking in with the team cheer

Thanks again to JollyStomper for the clever bracketing. I love the fact you built a python program to do this hahaha. I know a little and have dabbled enough to get in trouble!
I wouldn't mind peaking at a gitlab sample of the code... unless I need to sign an NDA ;)

https://youtu.be/UTEtv53LKOw\
Let's go Mighty Mighty!

One thing is clear, it seems the participation has grown, so the competition is much tighter. Ohhh the suspense and we haven't even posted an Investment Performance update yet!
 
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GravitySucks said:
Hmmmm

Only 10% guesses are in negative territory while the 2023 guesses had about 30% of us guessing we would have a negative year.

Irrational Exuberance:confused:
Click to expand...

Bwahaha. I based my guess on laws of averages plus the fact that its an election year. That alone pushed me into positive territory. Seemed logical from my couchseat.
 
Ding ding ding!

The S&P 500 got super close to crossing 5,000 today. Today’s high was 4,999.89!

So it might cross tomorrow or soon.
 
Enuff2Eat said:
5.35% up YTD. Why? How? I take it. : )
Click to expand...

Going up quicker than I thought, but clearly the January signals, earnings beats, dovish fed remarks. Is Powell trying to manufacture a softer landing than Volcker did in the 80s? Looks like its shaping up that way. Investor's have cash, clearly with room to run.
 
Hey, hey, hey! S&P 500 briefly crossed 5000 today. Today’s all time high was 5000.40. It closed at 4997.91.
 
audreyh1 said:
Hey, hey, hey! S&P 500 briefly crossed 5000 today. Today’s all time high was 5000.40. It closed at 4997.91.
Click to expand...


I can't believe the S&P is at 5000. I remember when it was 500 in the early 90s. If you go look at the chart after the 2008 bubble settled down it REALLY started to climb. I don't know if I should be optimistic or fearful.
 
Just for the record, the S&P 500 opened above 5000 this morning and stayed above all day, closing at 5026.61.
 
After a brief review, it appears eight of us have been "in the lead" in this contest at one point or another.

I'm feeling confident about my chances. My guess has a relatively wide range on either side and things are headed in the right direction.

I'm off to figure out how to spend my winnings. BRB.
 
Today the S&P 500 makes its first foray into the Sing A Song division for 2024!
 
kgtest said:
Thanks again to JollyStomper for the clever bracketing. I love the fact you built a python program to do this hahaha. I know a little and have dabbled enough to get in trouble!
I wouldn't mind peaking at a gitlab sample of the code... unless I need to sign an NDA ;)
Click to expand...

I just saw this. The code was "quick-and-dirty brute force", nothing fancy enough to add comments to :). The main step was saving the printable version of the thread into a text file that could be processed. A line that contained a timestamp started a post and contained the name, the name was easy to extract. Then I just looked at the following lines, up until the start of the next post, for the first line that contained a string that had at least 4 digits, with or without a comma or period. That was almost always the guess for most folks. It did not catch everything, and I had to add and correct some by hand (and missed a couple that sengsational kindly pointed out), But it did enough to make the task a little easier :).
 
jollystomper said:
I just saw this. The code was "quick-and-dirty brute force", nothing fancy enough to add comments to :). The main step was saving the printable version of the thread into a text file that could be processed. A line that contained a timestamp started a post and contained the name, the name was easy to extract. Then I just looked at the following lines, up until the start of the next post, for the first line that contained a string that had at least 4 digits, with or without a comma or period. That was almost always the guess for most folks. It did not catch everything, and I had to add and correct some by hand (and missed a couple that sengsational kindly pointed out), But it did enough to make the task a little easier :).
Click to expand...

Feature request for next year: Automatically select band and song names. May require AI plugin. ;-)
 
May I humbly express that the YTD return is impressive despite the day-to-day life of skyrocketing rental prices, real estate going nuts, and the average working class around my area struggling to get by?

Went oversea Asia for vacation and seeing people are struggling, some businesses are barely surviving. What gives?

Your thought?

enuff


Still in the "Sing a Long" range ... : )
 
Last edited:
Inflation can look like economic growth for a while, and the stock market isn't the economy.

Liquidity conditions are as loose as they were before the rate hiking cycle.

The government is running record non-emergency deficits, and pulling consumption forward.

We are still the world reserve currency until the world can establish a trusted alternative.

Look at the stock market valuation to GDP ratio. Crazy.

It will all work until it doesn't, and the FED and government will always choose inflation.
 
Moderator note: This is the S&P prediction thread. You guys should start your own thread instead of dragging this one off topic.
 
Gumby said:
Moderator note: This is the S&P prediction thread. You guys should start your own thread instead of dragging this one off topic.
Click to expand...

Every one of my points is a feeder into why we are in a situation where it seems stonks (S&P) only go up.

If we don't want a context discussion, my prediction is we hit around 5500, and then correct to around 4500 this year as long as nothing breaks or the FED doesn't do something crazy.
 
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