Some perspective

[Khan]

Yup. Again -- lovely to see those who are 100% convinced we're f****d accuse those of us who think it MIGHT not end worst case as being Pollyannaish "starry-eyed" optimists.

Let me ask you something. How many people here have said we're at the bottom and it's all up from here?

How many people here have claimed that there aren't significant economic issues that could be a headwind in the months (or years) to come?

How many people here have been ignoring some of the very real economic conditions that has led to a bear market since the October highs?

To my recollection, the answers are ZERO, ZERO and ZERO.

So I think claiming to see "irrational exuberance" is two tacos short of a combo plate. In your world, it would seem that ANYTHING other than seeing that we're doomed is "starry-eyed optimism."

Nice.

You may be right just as well as others -- hell, you may even be more likely than not to be right -- but I'll save yours, too -- and on the off chance that you're wrong, I'll looking forward to rubbing your nose in it. The thing is, if it goes down farther, you have no noses to rub into it yourself because no one here has been predicting an imminent reversal, just that we can't predict the future and that *historically*, bear markets reverse in 12-15 months. YOU are the one who are acting omniscient about the future, and if you are wrong, enjoy the embarrassment. I've seen no one here claiming we're on the verge of going higher, or that things won't get worse before they get better.

I've ONLY seem the doomsday crowd acting like they KNOW the future.

I swear, I am SICK and TIRED of people acting like there are only two possible takes on the economy, Pollyanna and Doomsday. Consider this the straw that broke the camel's back.

IMHO, all the social and economic advances of the last ~150 years were built on cheap hydrocarbons.

That's gone.

There's no way to maintain 7 BILLION people post Peak Oil.

I'm glad I'm old.

 

[ziggy29]

IMHO, all the social and economic advances of the last ~150 years were built on cheap hydrocarbons.

That's gone.

There's no way to maintain 7 BILLION people post Peak Oil.

I'm glad I'm old.

It may be possible that the doomsday crowd is finally right.

But it's not a foregone conclusion, and their track record is pretty bad.

And unlike the doomsday crowd's opinion of people who think it might NOT end worst-case, I'm willing to admit that they could be right. That's more than they are ever willing to admit. They are the ones who claim to *know* what lies in the future.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I could easily thump my chest and fling poo like the monkeys about how things are so bad. Nah....

 

[ziggy29]

Oh come on now, you must have forgot about old optimistic me. BTW, you've got to come out of your shell.

Heh. Yeah -- took me more than 1300 posts to lose my temper for the first time. Still, I stand by what I say -- it's the people who are insisting that we are screwed who are the only ones who claim to know what our future is, so to say that anyone else is "starry-eyed optimistic" is laughable.

I'm not terribly optimistic about the next few years -- but I am not willing to assume we are toast. I have enough of my portfolio diversified into doomsday investments that if it gets that bad, I won't be ruined.

Diversify and adapt the portfolio to threats. IMO, that's what the prudent money does. If you go all in on irrational exuberance or doomsday and you're wrong...you're screwed.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Heh. Yeah -- took me more than 1300 posts to lose my temper for the first time. Still, I stand by what I say -- it's the people who are insisting that we are screwed who are the only ones who claim to know what our future is, so to say that anyone else is "starry-eyed optimistic" is laughable.

I'm not terribly optimistic about the next few years -- but I am not willing to assume we are toast. I have enough of my portfolio diversified into doomsday investments that if it gets that bad, I won't be ruined.

Diversify and adapt the portfolio to threats. IMO, that's what the prudent money does. If you go all in on irrational exuberance or doomsday and you're wrong...you're screwed.

See you are making too much sense. Need to get all frothy and put up a sign saying

" bring out yer dead"

 

[RockOn]

They are the ones who claim to *know* what lies in the future.

Don't you think those who preach they are following the "only" correct way to invest, are putting themselves out as *knowing* what lies in the future also? I read those comments on this forum nearly every day

It breaks both ways and seeking open minded exchange would go a long way toward an interesting and educational forum. If everyone must follow the philosophy of the group think........so boring. Group think can also be dangerous, as I learned about it.

 

[NW-Bound]

IMHO, all the social and economic advances of the last ~150 years were built on cheap hydrocarbons.

That's gone.

There's no way to maintain 7 BILLION people post Peak Oil.

I'm glad I'm old.

Yes, as I said in some other threads, the Peak Oil scenario scares me more than the housing bubble. However, in the long run, I am optimistic that technology will come to the rescue. We also need to reign in our desire to drive stupendous SUVs and trucks.

It will take a few years for the old vehicles to die out and be replaced by more efficient cars. When some people sneer at small cars, calling them a "death trap", I restrain from telling them they will be glad not having to walk. Not that I am innocent, currently driving a 14-y.o. minivan (bought since my kids were little), and a SUV (to tow a trailer). However, I feel things may change and won't return to the old way, and am willing to adapt. Actually, we have no choice but to adapt. However, the guys who realize that first will have an easier time accepting it, plus may spot investment opportunities that come with the new trend.

So, I don't think it will be as bad as described in the following Web site, which conjures in the mind the movies "Mad Max" and "The Road Warrior".

However, we may have some lean years. What I am hoping for is that the US will seize this opportunity to reclaim the leadership in new technology, to wrestle manufacturing back from foreign competition.

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

 

[Marquette]

I'm very optimistic

Either nothing happens and I get rich

Something happens and it won't matter if you're rich or not

Something really happens and I die

All three scenarios aren't worth me fretting over.

 

[ladelfina]

ziggy, I know you've lost your temper. I'm sorry about that, but I lost mine, too, when offered the "perspective" that things ain't so bad because restaurants are still hoppin' in "The O.C." --one of the top 10 or 20 wealthiest enclaves in the US! Such is the delusion. I also lose my temper having my concerns belittled by people with substantial guaranteed pensions.

The old folks in my dads retirement community are calling it the worst they've ever seen, worse than the depression.

CFB, you said so yourself, they should know more about it than we do... It's not about how things look and feel now.. it's about what many indicators might be telling us.

If pointing this out is "preaching" then I don't know what to call some of the "faith-based" approaches here.

 

[RockOn]

I'm very optimistic

Either nothing happens and I get rich

Something happens and it won't matter if you're rich or not

Something really happens and I die

All three scenarios aren't worth me fretting over.

I think you are missing the most important one.

Something happens, my nest egg will no longer finance my retirement plans, and I live for 30 years.

That's the one I fret about.

 

[Marquette]

I think you are missing the most important one.

Something happens, my nest egg will no longer finance my retirement plans, and I live for 30 years.

That's the one I fret about.

Why fret? If the system collapses, you die of hunger. If it doesn't, you probably won't die of hunger.

Either way, the human race will go on or it might not. Beyond that, well, eh, who cares.

 

[ladelfina]

one less contender for those Montana McMansions.. good riddance!

 

[RockOn]

Why fret? If the system collapses, you die of hunger. If it doesn't, you probably won't die of hunger.

Either way, the human race will go on or it might not. Beyond that, well, eh, who cares.

I'm not going so far as to assume the whole system will collapse, just that my SWR plan doesn't pan out and I am stuck living on SS and medicare with the rest of the mob. The horror, the horror....

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Do them 6% annuities pay out when the world economy collapses?

Just move to Italy I guess and play pretend Fascist...

 

[NW-Bound]

I lost mine, too, when offered the "perspective" that things ain't so bad because restaurants are still hoppin' in "The O.C." --one of the top 10 or 20 wealthiest enclaves in the US! .

My daughter who works in accounting at a 5-star resort (I was told the only 5-star resort in Phoenix) came home on Wed telling me that they have cut all their staff to 32-hr work week. Yep, the 5-star resort where my daughter says business types and movie stars drop several grands a day.

At the low end, several local all-you-can-eat buffets have cut staff, as I was told by my BIL who frequents these places.

 

[ziggy29]

ziggy, I know you've lost your temper. I'm sorry about that, but I lost mine, too, when offered the "perspective" that things ain't so bad because restaurants are still hoppin' in "The O.C." --one of the top 10 or 20 wealthiest enclaves in the US! Such is the delusion. I also lose my temper having my concerns belittled by people with substantial guaranteed pensions.

I would agree that using a wealthy enclave as a national economic indicator is naivete at best.

And by the way, I have very little in the way of guaranteed pensions either. I have about $620 a month coming my way in 2030 (by that time, that'll be a tank of gas!) from a job I held from '87 to '99. I don't like to bash people who have fat pensions, since doing so won't bring me one (though I think we have to rethink our ability to keep promising it to new hires, at least in the public sector), but I do agree that it's easier to be less uneasy about the future if you have one. (I highlighted "new hires" here because I want it clear that I don't support taking away pension promises from anyone already in the system.)

I tried to see the writing on the wall even in the go-go days of the late 1980s when I was about 23 and in my first career job. I just felt like I didn't want to trust pensions or Social Security to be there for me in 40 years, so I put 12% of my income into my 401K at a time when it really hurt to do that. What's unfortunate is that I think it's harder for a recent college grad of today to even have a chance to put 12% in for the first few years when it helps the most. If I weren't lucky or prescient enough to see that, I could be looking at working for the rest of my life.

 

[RockOn]

My daughter who works in accounting at a 5-star resort (I was told the only 5-star resort in Phoenix) came home on Wed telling me that they have cut all their staff to 32-hr work week. Yep, the 5-star resort where my daughter says business types and movie stars drop several grands a day.

At the low end, several local all-you-can-eat buffets have cut staff, as I was told by my BIL who frequents these places.

Thanks for that information, that is helpful in understanding what is going on. It could be an isolated case, maybe we can build on it. A forum like this has people in all kinds of industries, maybe we could collectively do a little forecasting?

 

[Marquette]

I'm not going so far as to assume the whole system will collapse, just that my SWR plan doesn't pan out and I am stuck living on SS and medicare with the rest of the mob. The horror, the horror....

So, in your worst-case scenario you're stuck in the same boat as everyone else... Doesn't sound that bad to me.

 

[RockOn]

Do them 6% annuities pay out when the world economy collapses?

We don't really know do we?

Maybe I'll be living high on the hog since all the early deaths from those jumping out the windows make the insurance companies annuity accounts fat and happy. They don't have to pay off on the life insurance for suicides either do they?

Meanwhile you're chowing down on pork and beans using that worthless Google stock certificate for a napkin.

 

[FIREd]

I have been worried about the economy for a while, but I am not ready to call for a complete system collapse. I think we probably have a few years worth of very hard times in front of us, but in the end the system (and the market) will recover. My opinion is based on absolutely no hard fact mind you... Maybe it's pure wishful thinking. But I am hedging my bets, just in case...

 

[ladelfina]

I tried to see the writing on the wall even in the go-go days of the late 1980s when I was about 23 and in my first career job. I just felt like I didn't want to trust pensions or Social Security to be there for me in 40 years, so I put 12% of my income into my 401K at a time when it really hurt to do that.

That's great.. I wasn't talking about you re. the pensions. So you were skeptical, and didn't trust the government system. Right now I don't trust the financial system (banks, bond rating agencies, etc.) very much.

And you're right about people coming up having it harder; that's part of the concern.

 

[RockOn]

So, in your worst-case scenario you're stuck in the same boat as everyone else... Doesn't sound that bad to me.

To me that would be a horror.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

We don't really know do we?

Maybe I'll be living high on the hog since all the early deaths from those jumping out the windows make the insurance companies annuity accounts fat and happy. They don't have to pay off on the life insurance for suicides either do they?

Meanwhile you're chowing down on pork and beans using that worthless Google stock certificate for a napkin.

Or you might hold a worthless promise because things went down the tubes so hard Dont choke on it

 

[RockOn]

Or you might hold a worthless promise because things went down the tubes so hard Dont choke on it

Fun isn't it

 

[Lsbcal]

I've been reading a book by Barton Biggs. It talks about the markets in the context of events like WWII. We aren't anywhere near that scenario. The Battle of Midway was where the DJIA bottomed and it went up even when the Germans were still pushing people around in Europe. We have it easy in comparison nowadays.

I think I'll turn on my Big Screen TV (my Doomsday investment) and watch the Olympic Trials now. See yah!