Look, we don't even know for sure that the Trust Fund exhaustion will take place as projected. The SSA projections for the economy have typically been pessimistic. The main problem over the past seven years has been the severe recession and slow recovery. When folks don't work, they don't pay FICA. Wage stagnation hasn't helped either.
I want to avoid making a political statement about what I think we should do about SS, and stick to a technical comment about projections.
We certainly don't know the exact year when the Trust Fund will be exhausted. All we have are estimates.
However, I'm pretty sure that the SSA projections for the economy have not typically been pessimistic. If they were, the Trust Fund exhaustion year would typically move out in successive Trustees Reports. Those dates do vary, but not in just one direction.
The trustees assume a future of "normal" economies.
When unemployment is low and tax revenues go up, the Trust Fund builds up and that date moves later.
When unemployment is high and tax revenues go down, the Trust Fund doesn't build as quickly, and that date moves sooner.
Here's the actual history of projection dates from various Trustees Reports:
RptYear | OldAge | DI....... | Combined |
2014 | 2034 | 2016 | 2033 |
2013 | 2035 | 2016 | 2033 |
2012 | 2035 | 2016 | 2033 |
2011 | 2038 | 2018 | 2036 |
2010 | 2040 | 2018 | 2037 |
2009 | 2039 | 2020 | 2037 |
2008 | 2042 | 2025 | 2041 |
2007 | 2042 | 2026 | 2041 |
2006 | 2042 | 2025 | 2040 |
2005 | 2043 | 2027 | 2041 |
2004 | 2044 | 2029 | 2042 |
2003 | 2044 | 2028 | 2042 |
2002 | 2043 | 2028 | 2041 |
2001 | 2040 | 2026 | 2038 |
2000 | 2039 | 2023 | 2027 |
1999 | 2036 | 2020 | 2034 |
1998 | 2034 | 2019 | 2032 |
1997 | 2031 | 2015 | 2029 |
1996 | 2031 | 2015 | 2029 |
The trustees' and actuaries' work is examined and critique'd by various outsiders, and the CBO runs it's own, alternate projection. I don't know of anyone who thinks the projections are either perfect, or so far off that the system will just hum along indefinitely.
We do know, that the actual "cost rate" exceeded the actual "income rate" in each of the four years from 2010 thru 2013.