Tesla Model 3

[Chuckanut]

I have only seen 1, maybe 2 Tesla's of any model here in New Orleans, and I think it (or both?) had California plates. Probably Mardi Gras tourists. It just doesn't seem to float anybody's boat here. No Tesla dealerships that I have seen although there could be one, I suppose. (EDIT: Nope, I just checked, none here.) Many here earn their living from oil & gas.

Maybe this has something to do with the lack of Tesla autobiles in your area:

https://www.manufacturing.net/news/2017/06/tesla-says-new-law-will-prohibit-direct-sales-louisiana

Wed, 06/07/2017 - 10:20am 4 Comments by The Associated Press
Electric car company Tesla says it will be unable to sell cars directly in Louisiana, under a bill Gov. John Bel Edwards signed into law.
Tesla enthusiasts had urged the Democratic governor to veto the legislation, but it was on a list of signed measures released by Edwards' office Tuesday.

 

[ERD50]

Tesla has recently said the "$35 K Model 3" may not be produced for sale to the general public since it is a "no frills" unit. The ones that are making it to the people that have put down the $1000 deposit are higher end (mid $40's (K)). ...

Yes, when Tesla first announced $35K, the EV fans were all excited and were going on about how low the prices has dropped in a short time. But I recall being skeptical that they would actually hit $35K when released, and if they did hit it, how long before they actually sold any $35K models?

It's good business to up-sell if you can, but that's not the same as actually having $35K cars for sale to the general public. I think Tesla will have plenty of competition in that space, and I really question if they can be profitable there.

The semi-truck actually looks more interesting to me, but I wonder if the cost of a charging station is going to be a barrier? A fast charger for the semi is basically the equivalent of 10 "Superchargers". You need some big wires to the grid to support that.

-ERD50

 

[homestead]

Apparently somebody thinks the Model 3 is worth taking a look at:

https://electrek.co/2018/01/27/tesla-model-3-germany-reverse-engineered/

Maybe this is payback for taking the V2 & scientists after the war.
When I first saw the Elio I thought it looked like a deluxe coffin.

 

[Senator]

It seems like an electric car would eliminate many issues that a gas or diesel engine would have, yet Musk cannot deliver.

An electric car is a simple design, a glorified golf cart. Do not expect Tesla to be around in 5 years.

 

[pj.mask]

I’m interested in it but doesn’t make sense to accelerate a car purchase for it. My SO wants a big suv so that doesn’t fit but my replacement car in ~2023 will likely be electric with hopefully a lot of self driving capabilities.

 

[Ready]

I stopped by the Tesla store at Fashion Island on Sunday to take a look at the Model 3. There were more than 50 people lined up waiting to spend 60 seconds in the car. I wasn't in the mood to wait in line but I did get to see it from the outside. Looks nice.

My Tesla account shows a Jan-Mar delivery for the long range battery or "Early 2018" for the standard range. I have no idea how realistic those dates are.

 

[Tetto]

I feel for you.

I'm in line for a Elio and they've been stalling for 2 years now. I got played.

I canceled my Elio reservation and am out $250; I don’t like being strung along by those guys. Best of luck to them.

 

[Chuckanut]

One almost sensed it had to be coming:

https://qz.com/1201876/elon-musk-sa...a-roadster-to-mars-tesla-can-fix-the-model-3/

emphasis added..

Musk suggested Tesla’s fate may be among the stars as well. He told investors on Feb. 7 that if SpaceX could manage to launch a Roadster into space, then the Model 3’s manufacturing problems could be solved. “It’s just a matter of timing,” he said.

That said, the Model 3 assembly line is almost completely automated for the first time. Any problems with the “machine building the machine,” as Musk calls his factories, can result in long delays, as technicians work to fix or redesign the process. Once fully operational, the pace of production is expected to exceedany factory reliant on humans to handle assembly (Musk envisions a factory in which assembly robots move faster than the human eye can see).

 

[Midpack]

It seems like an electric car would eliminate many issues that a gas or diesel engine would have, yet Musk cannot deliver.

An electric car is a simple design, a glorified golf cart. Do not expect Tesla to be around in 5 years.

Wow, I don't follow them, but out of biz in 5 years? Who knows, we're not buying a Tesla anyway. We'll see if Musk is like Bezos, or DeLorean.

Electric car maker Tesla has notched up its biggest ever quarterly loss and said it “learned many lessons” from its crucial Model 3 production plans.

The firm’s future hangs on the Model 3 sedan, but it has so far struggled with production bottlenecks.

Tesla reported a loss of $675.4m (£487m) in three months to 31 December, compared with $121.3m a year earlier.

But it said revenues rose to $3.29bn, up from $2.28bn, and that it was addressing Model 3 production issues.

“At some point in 2018, we expect to begin generating positive quarterly operating income on a sustained basis,” Tesla, which is yet to make a profit, said on Wednesday.

Despite ongoing production bottlenecks, the electric car maker said it would continue to target Model 3 production rates of 2,500 by the end of the first quarter this year, and 5,000 by the end of the second quarter.
However, it added a caveat that “our prior experience on the Model 3 ramp has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time.”

 

[ERD50]

It seems like an electric car would eliminate many issues that a gas or diesel engine would have, yet Musk cannot deliver.

An electric car is a simple design, a glorified golf cart. Do not expect Tesla to be around in 5 years.

Wow, I don't follow them, but out of biz in 5 years? Who knows, we're not buying a Tesla anyway. We'll see if Musk is like Bezos, or DeLorean.

I won't try to predict where Tesla will be as a business in the future either.

But I think the idea that an EV is a "simple design", so therefore Tesla shouldn't be having production problems is an, em... over-simplification, IMO.

Sure, conceptually an EV is simple. Battery, controller, motor - that's it. No transmission, clutch, pistons, crankshaft valve trains, pollution controls, ignition system, turbochargers, fuel injection, and all the modern complexities for economy/emissions like variable valve timing/lift and on and on.

But if you look at the construction of those battery packs in a Tesla, they are a very complicated and hard to manufacture at a price point device. All the cooling, structure, and safety controls (have to survive a crash w/o going ballistic). It's anything but simple.

-ERD50

 

[FIREmenow]

I won't try to predict where Tesla will be as a business in the future either.

But I think the idea that an EV is a "simple design", so therefore Tesla shouldn't be having production problems is an, em... over-simplification, IMO.

Sure, conceptually an EV is simple. Battery, controller, motor - that's it. No transmission, clutch, pistons, crankshaft valve trains, pollution controls, ignition system, turbochargers, fuel injection, and all the modern complexities for economy/emissions like variable valve timing/lift and on and on.

But if you look at the construction of those battery packs in a Tesla, they are a very complicated and hard to manufacture at a price point device. All the cooling, structure, and safety controls (have to survive a crash w/o going ballistic). It's anything but simple.

-ERD50

Agree, but they're also not just building battery packs and motors as it is easily to get swayed by. They're building, um, the REST OF THE CAR. Brake rotors, steering arms, tire pressure sensors, windshield wipers, lumbar supports, trunk liners, etc. It's not just a Ford or a GM switching over to electric who already do the "rest" of the car - these guys are (mostly) starting from scratch.

I doubt that the delays have much to do with what they are good at - the batteries, electrics, and motors. Probably more likely some benign piece of hardware like the headlight-holder-inner.

 

[ERD50]

Agree, but they're also not just building battery packs and motors as it is easily to get swayed by. They're building, um, the REST OF THE CAR. Brake rotors, steering arms, tire pressure sensors, windshield wipers, lumbar supports, trunk liners, etc. It's not just a Ford or a GM switching over to electric who already do the "rest" of the car - these guys are (mostly) starting from scratch.

I doubt that the delays have much to do with what they are good at - the batteries, electrics, and motors. Probably more likely some benign piece of hardware like the headlight-holder-inner.

True, they do have to build the rest of the car, and I am also impressed that they have been able to pull this off and deliver several models. This isn't DeLorean, or some 'kit car' company.

But it is the batteries that are causing delays:

https://mashable.com/2018/02/08/tesla-model-3-production-delays-q4-call/#DKEhvoWaXkqF

On the earnings call, Musk took responsibility for the production ramp miscalculations. He explained that the challenge was in battery production, which he called "ironic," because "our battery modules really should be the thing we're best at."

-ERD50

 

[FIREmenow]

But it is the batteries that are causing delays:

https://mashable.com/2018/02/08/tesla-model-3-production-delays-q4-call/#DKEhvoWaXkqF

-ERD50

Thanks.

".........."ironic," because "our battery modules really should be the thing we're best at."

That's funny.

 

[NW-Bound]

I never followed Tesla or even Elon Musk, but learned of the origin of Tesla in this following article: Tesla: The Origin Story - Business Insider.

Tesla Inc. was founded by two engineers, Eberhard and Tarpenning. They actually had the idea from another small company called AC Propulsion. Tesla needed investment cash, which was provided by Musk. Musk elbowed out the founders and took over.

The story also talked of initial problems with the original Tesla Roadster as built by Lotus under contract. Very interesting.

PS. An EV should have much fewer parts than in a combustion-engine car. The big cost is in the battery. Whoever can build it cheaper and has it last longer will win. Every car maker knows how to make an EV, if cost is no object.

 

[gerntz]

I think range & charge times are still hindrances for a good number of folks.

 

[NW-Bound]

Regarding the production delay, things must be very stressful there. I happened to see the news of a director of battery engineering as well as a chief battery engineer leaving the company a couple of months ago. They had been at Tesla a while, and involved in the design of the earlier batteries.

In addition, the self-driving engineering group was like a revolving door with the chiefs not lasting that long. It was said that they butted head with Musk, and left.

 

[Zathras]

Agreed, I am sure it is a very high stress place to work.
Musk is having the idea of vertical integration reinforced yet again. Shame the contractor couldn't deliver. I am a bit surprised Tesla went with a contractor, other than Panasonic, for parts of the battery module assembly.
I am glad they are still shooting for 5000/week rate by the end of 2nd quarter.

On the lighter side of things, I pick mine up on Monday !!

 

[Ready]

I received an email from Tesla last week notifying me that my "early 2018" delivery date would now be "late 2018". So basically an entire year delay. And the only way to move that up would be to buy the model with a long range battery and premium interior, which starts at $49K not including the autopilot.

I sat in the car at a Tesla store last week and my immediate thought was that it feels like a $35K car, but not a $49K car. So I'm not inclined to want to pay for all the upgrades just to get it quicker. Unfortunately the federal tax credit will at best be $3,750 rather than $7,500, making the entire purchase even less appealing.

It's too bad Tesla couldn't ramp up quicker. I can see from the Tesla forums that customer frustration with this model is quite high. They may never really produce a $35K Model 3, in which case I guess we were all played when we put our deposits down two years ago.

 

[Zathras]

I received an email from Tesla last week notifying me that my "early 2018" delivery date would now be "late 2018". So basically an entire year delay. ...

Or basically a one week delay. Just as valid an option as assuming a year delay. Most likely, it will be more like a 6 month delay.
Putting down a deposit, for a product is always a risk. I completely understand the frustration, and frankly, am hoping enough people will cancel their reservation that it will send a very clear signal to Tesla.
The message being that they need to continue to make aggressive internal schedules, but need to market more reasonable, safer dates.

If you feel Tesla did this intentionally, or "played" you, you should cancel your reservation and get your money back.

 

[Totoro]

Tesla triggered a very good race to mass production EV. I'm quite doubtful they'll win in the end, GM and VW group not to mention Nissan are no small competitors. Yet I won't discount it at any instance and grateful Musk went for it.

They can't stay automotive. I just don't see the big automakers dropping the ball long enough. Odds ain't good, especially since there are no governments backing them. Unless they displace GM.

I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted away from cars entirely, sell off the automotive part and focus on the energy system (as OEM). It's the endgame anyway: solar panel to battery, powering everything, cheaper than oil and gas. It's one of the reasons solar city is in there.

 

[clifp]

True, they do have to build the rest of the car, and I am also impressed that they have been able to pull this off and deliver several models. This isn't DeLorean, or some 'kit car' company.

But it is the batteries that are causing delays:

https://mashable.com/2018/02/08/tesla-model-3-production-delays-q4-call/#DKEhvoWaXkqF




-ERD50

As I've mentioned before a friend of mine son is the one of the top engineers in the battery unit. It is arguably one of the toughest pieces of engineering. You are packing a hell of a lot of energy into small space, it has to able to deliver that energy in a small amount of time (hence the acceleration). You have to be able to cool it. It needs to survivable and if it gets in an accident it has to overheat in a controlled fashion. The first Tesla S had roughly 4x more batteries than any other car in the market,and while the S is a lot bigger than Leaf,or a Volt it is not four times bigger. Tesla batteries have gone from 85KW to 100KW in the same space. in the last 5 years.

A couple years ago Elon was in the design meeting with my friend and he showed him the design for the battery unit. Elon's design philosophy was not one wasted gram or one wasted centimeter. The battery module met with Elon's enthusiastic approval. The problem is that same design philosophy makes parts very hard to manufacture in a high volume. Suffice to Elon's perfectionist nature made him choose poorly on design vs manufacturing tradeoffs

It's quite reminiscent of many of Steve Jobs decisions going back to the original Mac, the iMac and the iPhone, Apple often had trouble ramping up production of products to Jobs incessant on perfection. The difference is that Apple didn't accept pre-orders and take deposits on their products.

 

[NW-Bound]

In the article I cited earlier about the origin of Tesla, Inc., it was said that Musk design changes were the cause of the delay of the first Tesla Roadster that was produced by Lotus under contract. Musk and Jobs share the trait of being a perfectionist. And their products do attract fervent followers.

 

[swakyaby]

On the lighter side of things, I pick mine up on Monday !!

Did you get your car? What do you think of it?

 

[Totoro]

In the article I cited earlier about the origin of Tesla, Inc., it was said that Musk design changes were the cause of the delay of the first Tesla Roadster that was produced by Lotus under contract. Musk and Jobs share the trait of being a perfectionist. And their products do attract fervent followers.

His ambition to only make a car that is better in every way and happens to be electric does shine through.

If only the interior finish wasn't so low quality (according to my brother) compared to german cars.

 

[Zathras]

Did you get your car? What do you think of it?

I did!
I only have a few miles on the car. Hopefully I will have more today or tomorrow.

From first impressions, it exceeded my expectations.
The handling is much sportier and tighter. The car feels much more nimble.

In short, I would say less of a luxury feel, and more of a sportier feel.
I LOVE the sleek interior. Still getting used to the control screen, but I think I am going to like it a lot.