Magic Formula Tracker

[ERD50]

Well, we're not done yet.

If it consistently underperforms, we also have a winning strategy btw.

Just my luck, it would start 'working' then!

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

Goldblatt was clear that it would take at least 3 years, and maybe 5. That's not saying I'm not skeptical, because I am. I've always been, which is why I'm trying to settle the matter as best I can through this thread. But we still have a while to go.


I think the reason it's lagging is that the equities market has been so strong since the start of the experiment. The stocks from the filter are already beaten down, so they might distinguish themselves by not going down as much if the whole market takes a beating. Of course that's a sad way to "beat the market", but that point was made stronger in the second edition, where he said beating the market doesn't always mean making a good return.


Bottom line take away so far for me is that luck has a lot to do with it. If I could start over, I'd do three separate experiments and see how widely they diverged.

 

[ERD50]

Goldblatt was clear that it would take at least 3 years, and maybe 5. ....

That seems odd. Why would an approach take "at least three years"? Sure, a certain strategy might do better in a certain market phase (bull, bear, flat, or other condition), but why couldn't that phase happen right at the start of the experiment? I'm having trouble with that.

... Bottom line take away so far for me is that luck has a lot to do with it. If I could start over, I'd do three separate experiments and see how widely they diverged.

There you go. And I would hope that if you ran three experiments, at least one of them would beat the market over the time frame of the experiment. But where would that leave you? What actionable item could you take from that (sorry for the MegaCorp speak!)

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

If the three we're highly divergent and generally not beating risk adjusted returns, then the action would be to avoid the magic formula. If the results were more tightly grouped, then that would say luck had less to do with it and 30 issues is enough. If grouped and ahead of the appropriate index, then the scheme "worked" and luck was not a large factor.



As to the 3 to 5 years, I think it is indeed a way to allow the scheme to run in various market conditions, but since I got the book from the library, I can't see exactly what he said about it.

 

[OldShooter]

That seems odd. Why would an approach take "at least three years"? ...

Doesn't seem odd to me. Consider:

1. Over any relatively short period, the performance of a diversified portfolio approximates a random walk.
2. Over any relatively long period of time (maybe 5+ years) a diversified portfolio will exhibit a slight bias towards growth, something approximating the market's overall bias as observed in many decades of history.

So the longer he waits, the more likely it is that the market will bail him out regardless of what "magic" is in the portfolio. Smart strategy.

 

[sengsational]

The December batch came in just a tiny bit positive, ahead of the small cap indexes for past 12 month span. The 1.4% just happened to match the overall performance of the scheme since inception. Pretty sad state of affairs, making only 1/10th of the amount the index made over the 903 days since the start of the experiment.

We are half way through the experiment (5 years is about 1800 days). This scheme would have to really up it's game to come close to any of the benchmarks! I have very little confidence that this scheme is going to "beat the market".

The small cap indexes took a beating in this span compared to the S&P 500; they've diverged more than any earlier 12 month span that I've tracked (on the order of 15% this time, whereas the worst we've seen is 7% or 10% or something before).

365 Days ending 12/14/2018|XIRR for Dec 2016 batch|XIRR 903 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

1.4%​

|

1.4%​

|

$2481​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

-5.8%​

|

11.5%​

|

$24289​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

-5.7%​

|

11.9%​

|

$24990​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

8.5%​

|

14.5%​

|

$30776​

|

Here are the details for closing out the 12 month positions:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

1957.83​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-5.8%​

|Benchmark December 2018 Sale
VBR|

120.74​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-5.7%​

|Benchmark December 2018 Sale
VOO|

240.24​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

8.5%​

|Benchmark December 2018 Sale
CNCE|

13.75​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-47.6%​

|December 2018 Sale
DISCA|

28.05​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

39.2%​

|December 2018 Sale
SP|

28.26​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-26.7%​

|December 2018 Sale
USNA|

121.49​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

68.6%​

|December 2018 Sale
UTHR|

108.51​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-19.8%​

|December 2018 Sale
ALL|

​

||

1.4%​

|December 2018 Sale

Here are the random picks this time:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

1957.83​

|12/14/2018 14:00|Benchmark
VBR|

120.74​

|12/14/2018 14:00|Benchmark
VOO|

240.24​

|12/14/2018 14:00|Benchmark
EAF|

12.04​

|12/14/2018 14:00|December 2018 Picks
HEAR|

16.40​

|12/14/2018 14:00|December 2018 Picks
NANO|

28.39​

|12/14/2018 14:00|December 2018 Picks
PETS|

22.99​

|12/14/2018 14:00|December 2018 Picks
TUSK|

19.38​

|12/14/2018 14:00|December 2018 Picks

 

[sengsational]

The batch bought last February and held for a year did quite well, beating all of the indexes handily. But since the start of the experiment, the magic formula picks returned only half of what the aligned benchmark returned and only a bit better than a third of the large cap benchmark. The long run is what counts, but these occasional wins are keeping the scheme from falling completely flat.

There was a buyout where CPLA stock was exchanged for cash and STRA stock. All of those transactions were joined to calculate the rate of return.

364 Days ending 02/21/2019|XIRR for Feb 2017 batch|XIRR 972 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

25.2%​

|

4.9%​

|

$10320​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

3.3%​

|

8.5%​

|

$19266​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

3.3%​

|

8.5%​

|

$19267​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

4.3%​

|

12.3%​

|

$28577​

|

Ticker|Executed price 2/2019|Sale Date|Buy Date|XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2167.25​

|02/21/2019|

02/22/2018​

|

3.3%​

|Benchmark February 2019 Sale
VBR|

132.68​

|02/21/2019|

02/22/2018​

|

3.3%​

|Benchmark February 2019 Sale
VOO|

255.50​

|02/21/2019|

02/22/2018​

|

4.3%​

|Benchmark February 2019 Sale
BPT|

26.43​

|02/21/2019 13:00|

02/22/2018​

|

59.3%​

|February 2019 Sale
CPLA|

108.38​

|08/01/2018|

02/22/2018​

|

41.4%​

|February 2019 Sale
EGOV|

17.45​

|02/21/2019 13:00|

02/22/2018​

|

28.8%​

|February 2019 Sale
OMC|

75.48​

|02/21/2019 13:00|

02/22/2018​

|

0.1%​

|February 2019 Sale
VEC|

28.34​

|02/21/2019 13:00|

02/22/2018​

|

-0.6%​

|February 2019 Sale
STRA|

125.13​

|02/21/2019 13:00|

02/22/2018​

|

(in CPLA)​

|February 2019 Sale

ALL|

​

|||

25.2%​

|February 2019 Sale

The random picks this time:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2167.25​

|02/21/2019 13:00|Benchmark
VBR|

132.68​

|02/21/2019 13:00|Benchmark
VOO|

255.5​

|02/21/2019 13:00|Benchmark
ALSN|

49.82​

|02/21/2019 13:00|February 2019 Picks
FNJN|

3.24​

|02/21/2019 13:00|February 2019 Picks
FRSH|

5.37​

|02/21/2019 13:00|February 2019 Picks
LTRPA|

15.99​

|02/21/2019 13:00|February 2019 Picks
SYX|

24.60​

|02/21/2019 13:00|February 2019 Picks

 

[NW-Bound]

The screen on magicformulainvesting.com gave me a list of 50 stocks that ranked the highest on Goldblatt's valuation technique. I pasted those into a spreadsheet, typed =Rand() in the adjacent column and sorted the list. So, yes, using a computer and applying a mechanical, repeatable process.

Well, we're not done yet.

If it consistently underperforms, we also have a winning strategy btw.

Perhaps the Rand() that sengsational uses is a snakebit one.

Instead of using it to choose stocks to buy, how about shorting the chosen stocks and going long the S&P? One makes a lot of money with the arbitrage.

 

[sengsational]

The batch selected last April fared quite well, at 11.2% as compared to the indexes, which were in the 3% to 6% range. I'm not going to try to boho the situation...one batch does not make a success; the S&P index has returned more than three times as much cash!

364 Days ending 04/18/2019|XIRR for Apr 2017 batch|XIRR 1028 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

11.2%​

|

4.4%​

|

$9642​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

2.2%​

|

8.0%​

|

$19418​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

2.8%​

|

8.0%​

|

$19589​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

5.8%​

|

13.6%​

|

$34467​

|

There were a few buyouts, so I combined all cash flows associated with the original purchase into one bucket for measurement purposes:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2170.11​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

2.2%​

|Benchmark April 2019 Sale
VBR|

132.21​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

2.8%​

|Benchmark April 2019 Sale
VOO|

266.16​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

5.8%​

|Benchmark April 2019 Sale
ESRX|

96.85​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

18.8%​

|April 2019 Sale
EVC|

2.99​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

-38.0%​

|April 2019 Sale
MSB|

30.88​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

42.5%​

|April 2019 Sale
NTRI|

42.66​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

58.1%​

|April 2019 Sale
PBH|

28.10​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

-8.2%​

|April 2019 Sale
CI|

148.91​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

reported with ESRX​

|April 2019 Sale
TVTY|

20.03​

|04/19/2018 12:50|

reported with NTRI​

|April 2019 Sale
ALL|

​

||

11.2%​

|April 2019 Sale

Aaaaand.... this time the bewitched @rand() function helped me find:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2170.11​

|04/18/2019 15:40|Benchmark
VBR|

132.21​

|04/18/2019 15:40|Benchmark
VOO|

266.16​

|04/18/2019 15:40|Benchmark
AEZS|

4.29​

|04/18/2019 15:45|April 2019 Picks
EGY|

2.47​

|04/18/2019 15:45|April 2019 Picks
IMMR|

9.19​

|04/18/2019 15:45|April 2019 Picks
SIGA|

5.34​

|04/18/2019 15:45|April 2019 Picks
STRL|

13.80​

|04/18/2019 15:45|April 2019 Picks

 

[Totoro]

I'm not going to try to boho the situation...

Thanks for keeping the reporting going!

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
I'm not going to try to boho the situation...

And a new word enters our lexicon here at ER.org!

Do we need to add it to http://www.early-retirement.org/for...lang-frequently-used-on-the-forum-34884.html? ?

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

And a new word enters our lexicon here at ER.org!

I think we continue to use it and make people wonder what it means for a while. Or pick it up in context.


So right now I'll give people an example of what it means...I'm going to boho the results by looking only at a subset of results: Closed positions only.


Charting closed positions alone is too noisy. But if I put a moving average on it, see how the dark blue lines are going in the "right direction" and the yellow and pink are going in the wrong direction? Never mind that "COMBINED" has made less than 1/3 the cash of VOO.

 

[sengsational]

The 2018 June picks turned in an horrific result of -38.5%. The small cap benchmarks got hit a little bit, and the S&P showed a nice gain over the span. This batch wiped out all earlier gains accumulated in the scheme, and took the overall results negative.

364 Days ending 06/20/2019|XIRR for Jun 2018 batch|XIRR 1091 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

-38.5%​

|

-4.4%​

|

-$9717​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

-4.4%​

|

6.7%​

|

$17611​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

-4.2%​

|

6.8%​

|

$17878​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

8.9%​

|

13.4%​

|

$36687​

|

Looks like a few falling knives were caught:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2136.11​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

-4.4%​

|Benchmark June 2019 Sale
VBR|

130.25​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

-4.2%​

|Benchmark June 2019 Sale
VOO|

270.71​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

8.9%​

|Benchmark June 2019 Sale
ACOR|

7.54​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

-75.0%​

|June 2019 Sale
IDCC|

64.30​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

-22.0%​

|June 2019 Sale
KLAC|

113.20​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

5.4%​

|June 2019 Sale
TUP|

19.23​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

-50.3%​

|June 2019 Sale
WDC|

39.31​

|06/21/2018 12:00|

-50.4%​

|June 2019 Sale
ALL|

​

||

-38.5%​

|June 2019 Sale

The random picks for June 2019:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2136.11​

|06/20/2019 12:00|Benchmark
VBR|

130.25​

|06/20/2019 12:00|Benchmark
VOO|

270.71​

|06/20/2019 12:00|Benchmark
GTX|

15.35​

|06/20/2019 12:00|June 2019 Picks
INVA|

14.38​

|06/20/2019 12:00|June 2019 Picks
LGND|

113.80​

|06/20/2019 12:00|June 2019 Picks
MBUU|

38.35​

|06/20/2019 12:00|June 2019 Picks
NRT|

6.82​

|06/20/2019 12:00|June 2019 Picks

 

[Totoro]

Starting to move into "can't come back from that" territory. Pity.

 

[ERD50]

The 2018 June picks turned in an horrific result of -38.5%. The small cap benchmarks got hit a little bit, and the S&P showed a nice gain over the span. This batch wiped out all earlier gains accumulated in the scheme, and took the overall results negative. ...

I just looked and we are 3 years into this. Wow, seems like the "Magic Formula" is a disappearing act, for your money!

(I fat-fingered "disappearing", and spell checker recommended " diapering" - hmmm, that might work too?)

Do you have a month-to-month chart/table of the MF picks (hmm, maybe MF fits too?) versus Total Market or SPY? I'd guess that not only did it under-perform, but also had a much higher standard dev. All rather interesting, as any picks really should average out over time. It should be as difficult (or as easy) to pick under-performers as it is over-performers. I wonder if the results were different, would people be thinking this was a good system?

Chalk up another tick-mark for passive investing. We'll see what Running_Man comes up with next.

-ERD50

 

[Running_Man]

I just looked and we are 3 years into this. Wow, seems like the "Magic Formula" is a disappearing act, for your money!

(I fat-fingered "disappearing", and spell checker recommended " diapering" - hmmm, that might work too?)

Do you have a month-to-month chart/table of the MF picks (hmm, maybe MF fits too?) versus Total Market or SPY? I'd guess that not only did it under-perform, but also had a much higher standard dev. All rather interesting, as any picks really should average out over time. It should be as difficult (or as easy) to pick under-performers as it is over-performers. I wonder if the results were different, would people be thinking this was a good system?

Chalk up another tick-mark for passive investing. We'll see what Running_Man comes up with next.

-ERD50

Do not associate me with threads in which I do not post, I have never commented or contributed to it as I hold a negative opinion of the strategy after reading the book. I am willing to be held accountable for individual stock investments that I actually propose.

 

[OldShooter]

Starting to move into "can't come back from that" territory. Pity.

Oh, I disagree. Failed experiments have significant value. IMO that is particularly true in investing and on forums where successes are trumpeted, claims based on backtesting are frequent, and failures are rarely mentioned.

And, I really like this kind of experiment where it is run in real time and with real money. Anyone can torture the data and come up with schemes that backtest well, but real investments with real money makes for real results. We owe thanks to @sengsational.

 

[ERD50]

Do not associate me with threads in which I do not post, I have never commented or contributed to it as I hold a negative opinion of the strategy after reading the book. I am willing to be held accountable for individual stock investments that I actually propose.

Sorry if I touched a nerve. Nothing I said is "holding you accountable" to the system in this thread. It was just a passing comment that there will be another, separate analysis coming up.

-ERD50

 

[Ready-4-ER-at-14]

I do like the logic the book author presented, and I like large samples over large time periods in studies.. The author of little book ran his study from 1988 to 2004 (p 61) and had 3 studies of 1500 picks per study. (4500 selections)

On p 91 he said regarding 3 year periods it beat the market 95% of the time. that was 160 of 169 three year periods.

on p 107 he said most people should be in index funds and match the market. To me this is probability stuff, and even in Vegas occasionally a casino loses despite having the odds in their favor. At the very least if I buy it would seem more likely hood that the company has a future than a random dart throw.

 

[sengsational]

What I have been attempting to do is document the process as defined in the "... still beats the market" book (the later printing). That process didn't prescribe a certain amount of various market cap levels. You can eliminate the smallest companies when you get the current list of companies that meet his screen on magicformula.com, but he says that's just to give people a slightly different list to randomly pick from.



Based on what I've seen since I've been running the defined process, I'm thinking that the market is not working the same way it used to. Either that or maybe the data/process was "over-fit", such that using the defined process was never going to work as we moved into the future.

Do you have a month-to-month chart/table of the MF picks (hmm, maybe MF fits too?) versus Total Market or SPY? I'd guess that not only did it under-perform, but also had a much higher standard dev. All rather interesting, as any picks really should average out over time. It should be as difficult (or as easy) to pick under-performers as it is over-performers. I wonder if the results were different, would people be thinking this was a good system?

I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Every pick's buy/sell dates and prices are in this thread, posted the day of the buy or sell. You're thinking of a price over time chart? I haven't been "marking to market", just have been documenting the buy and sell dates and prices, so the points are one year apart.

 

[ERD50]

... I'm not sure what you're looking for here. Every pick's buy/sell dates and prices are in this thread, posted the day of the buy or sell. You're thinking of a price over time chart? I haven't been "marking to market", just have been documenting the buy and sell dates and prices, so the points are one year apart.

Yes, a monthly mark-to-market (like the Boho contest). We could look at volatility versus the market. If you don't have it, no big deal, just curious. Though, since it is lagging this much anyhow, the volatility is kind of a non-issue for me at this point.

Interesting experiment though. And similarly, had this done well, would that just be an expected deviation from norm, some time periods/tests doing well, others doing poorly?

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

Here's another attempt to Boho the results of this experiment...We're in a particularly bad time for value stocks, according to this:

That came from this page https://www.marottaonmoney.com/value-investing-during-seasons-of-growth/, which basically says that you have been able to buy growth equities fairly cheaply over some recent spans of time, based on PE, so those were a better bet than value equities.

 

[sengsational]

Another horrific batch from last August until now, down 43%. The small cap benchmarks lost "only" 11%. And our old standby, the S&P 500 gained a few percent in the last 12 months.

This exercise is turning out to be a great lesson in "just buy the whole market and find something else to spend your time on"

364 Days ending 08/15/2019|XIRR for Aug 2018 batch|XIRR 1147 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

-43.4%​

|

-8.8%​

|

-$19802​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

-11.6%​

|

3.9%​

|

$10437​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

-11.4%​

|

3.9%​

|

$10628​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

2.1%​

|

11.4%​

|

$32825​

|

Here are the specifics of last August's picks that went to H-E double hockey stick in a handbasket:

Ticker|Price 08/15/2019|Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2001.12​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

-11.6%​

|Benchmark August 2019 Sale
VBR|

121.25​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

-11.4%​

|Benchmark August 2019 Sale
VOO|

261.44​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

2.1%​

|Benchmark August 2019 Sale
AEIS|

47.52​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

-20.2%​

|August 2019 Sale
CASA|

6.21​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

-48.9%​

|August 2019 Sale
DXC|

30.89​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

-64.1%​

|August 2019 Sale
MIK|

5.19​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

-74.5%​

|August 2019 Sale
SGH|

27.77​

|08/16/2018 13:30|

-6.2%​

|August 2019 Sale
ALL|

​

||

-43.4%​

|August 2019 Sale

And for this batch, the "gifted" random picker came up with:

Ticker|Price|Date|
CRSPSCVT|

2001.12​

|08/15/2019 15:00|Benchmark
VBR|

121.25​

|08/15/2019 15:00|Benchmark
VOO|

261.44​

|08/15/2019 15:00|Benchmark
BBY|

63.91​

|08/15/2019 15:00|August 2019 Picks
EEX|

9.49​

|08/15/2019 15:00|August 2019 Picks
FIZZ|

41.59​

|08/15/2019 15:00|August 2019 Picks
JW-A|

41.63​

|08/15/2019 15:00|August 2019 Picks
LEE|

2.03​

|08/15/2019 15:00|August 2019 Picks

 

[sengsational]

Starting to move into "can't come back from that" territory. Pity.

Yeah, and getting worse!

This last batch, over the last year, lost 28% while the small cap indexes lost only 5%, and the trusty S&P 500 gained 4.4%. I'm wondering if there might have been a bit of cherry picking in the book's picks. It wouldn't take much...swap out a few really bad ones for a few really good ones.

358 Days ending 10/03/2019|XIRR for Oct 2018 batch|XIRR 1196 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

-28.2%​

|

-7.2%​

|

-$17325​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

-5.3%​

|

4.8%​

|

$13890​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

-5.2%​

|

4.9%​

|

$14065​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

4.4%​

|

11.7%​

|

$35777​

|

This time, there were a few good ones (25% gain), but offset by some horrible ones:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2066.09​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

-5.3%​

|Benchmark October 2019 Sale
VBR|

124.71​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

-5.2%​

|Benchmark October 2019 Sale
VOO|

266.19​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

4.4%​

|Benchmark October 2019 Sale
CJREF|

3.96​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

25.8%​

|October 2019 Sale
FTSI|

2.06​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

-83.9%​

|October 2019 Sale
NKTR|

17.88​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

-65.2%​

|October 2019 Sale
SRNE|

2.20​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

-41.2%​

|October 2019 Sale
STX|

52.70​

|10/10/2018 11:46|

25.0%​

|October 2019 Sale
ALL|

​

||

-28.2%​

|October 2019 Sale

And, limping along, I'll post the next set of random picks:

Ticker|Price|Date|
CRSPSCVT|

2066.09​

|10/03/2019 14:00|Benchmark
VBR|

124.71​

|10/03/2019 14:00|Benchmark
VOO|

266.19​

|10/03/2019 14:00|Benchmark
ARNA|

45.59​

|10/03/2019 14:00|October 2019 Picks
CBS|

38.40​

|10/03/2019 14:00|October 2019 Picks
JAZZ|

125.50​

|10/03/2019 14:00|October 2019 Picks
PCOM|

11.35​

|10/03/2019 14:00|October 2019 Picks
REZI|

13.43​

|10/03/2019 14:00|October 2019 Picks

 

[sengsational]

In the continuing saga of "what not to do", or "this is why we just just buy the index", we've had another bad batch: The picks from one year ago are down 19.4%, while the small cap indexes are up 15% and the good old S&P 500 was up 24%. Across all batches, the small cap indexes made 4.5%, while the magic formula picks lost 5%. Meanwhile, the S&P turned in an 11% gain across the entire period.

363 Days ending 12/12/2019|XIRR for Dec 2018 batch|XIRR 1266 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

-19.4%​

|

-5.0%​

|

-$13046​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

15.4%​

|

4.5%​

|

$13890​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

15.6%​

|

4.6%​

|

$14065​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

24.0%​

|

11.0%​

|

$35777​

|

The batch just sold had an immense looser -91% (TUSK) and a grand looser -45% (HEAR). The gainers didn't stand a chance to make up for those.

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2257.41​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

15.4%​

|Benchmark December 2019 Sale
VBR|

136.31​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

15.6%​

|Benchmark December 2019 Sale
VOO|

291.28​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

24.0%​

|Benchmark December 2019 Sale
EAF|

12.39​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

5.0%​

|December 2019 Sale
HEAR|

9.10​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

-44.8%​

|December 2019 Sale
ONTO|

34.46​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

21.4%​

|December 2019 Sale (was NANO)
PETS|

23.08​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

5.1%​

|December 2019 Sale
TUSK|

1.70​

|12/14/2018 14:00|

-91.1%​

|December 2019 Sale
ALL|

​

||

-19.4%​

|December 2019 Sale

And, as much as it pains me to continue the "five year mission", today's random picks are as follows:

Ticker|Price|Date|
CRSPSCVT|

2257.41​

|12/12/2019 15:30|Benchmark
VBR|

136.31​

|12/12/2019 15:30|Benchmark
VOO|

291.28​

|12/12/2019 15:30|Benchmark
BRBR|

20.88​

|12/12/2019 15:30|December 2019 Picks
HCC|

20.61​

|12/12/2019 15:30|December 2019 Picks
HI|

33.60​

|12/12/2019 15:30|December 2019 Picks
LXRX|

5.10​

|12/12/2019 15:30|December 2019 Picks
PTN|

.81​

|12/12/2019 15:30|December 2019 Picks
TUSK|

1.70​

|12/12/2019 15:30|Continue to hold