Tesla for the long run?

Everyone has different mental stumbling blocks so that's not unusual at all. Fortunately, Musk doesn't recognize imaginary laws, only real ones. And he seems very adept with large numbers and being able to scale just about anything that makes sense to scale so I'm not concerned about that.

He is already the most important and successful industrialist of the 21st century and I think the story will only become more established from here. It will make what we have seen so far look like humble beginnings and people are just now beginning to recognize this in numbers.


Just want to point out that one of the leading industrialist of the 20th century also started a major company in 1892... and it's market cap is about $98 billion... not even trillions... look up GE...


Just because he is the current one does not mean he will create a $5 trillion company... and like I say about all investments, it has to produce income at some time to justify the valuation...
 
Just want to point out that one of the leading industrialist of the 20th century also started a major company in 1892... and it's market cap is about $98 billion... not even trillions... look up GE...

That's interesting but time is only one ingredient necessary for the creation of value. I never invested in GE (and I'm glad I didn't).


Just because he is the current one does not mean he will create a $5 trillion company... and like I say about all investments, it has to produce income at some time to justify the valuation...

My investment thesis is not that every industrialist will build a great company. In fact, Elon Musk started out as a technologist. He only become an industrialist through his interest in rockets and the high prices Russia was asking for them (even though the ones they had for sale were practically ancient technology). Later, he applied much of what he was learning while building rockets to auto manufacturing.

According to auto industry expert Sandy Munro, Tesla is the only automaker that develops unique metal alloys specific to Tesla's requirements. The unusual alloy he discovered on a Model 3 is a special aluminum alloy for structural pressure cast parts. Legacy auto just uses an off-the-shelf alloy but it requires heat treating after manufacturing to achieve the necessary strength. And the heat treating causes uneven warpage which limited the variety of shapes that could be cast without unacceptable warpage and the extra heat-treating process added to the cost and energy it took to build each vehicle. So Tesla developed a unique aluminum alloy that was strong enough without the extra step of heat treating and maintained it's dimensionally uniform shape. Munro was shocked - he said a legacy automaker would never consider developing a new alloy because they didn't have that kind of expertise in-house.

This is just one tiny example of many why it's so hard to compete head-to-head with Tesla. Because the cost to manufacture determines how much value you can offer the consumer. The special roll-hardened stainless steel that Tesla will use to form the body and chassis of the Cybertruck is another example of materials innovation and is a primary reason why the Cybertruck offers so much more value to truck buyers than the legacy manufacturers offer their truck customers with the soft mild-steel body work that is easily damaged by minor impacts and starts rusting as soon as the fragile paint is damaged.

I could list 100 specific reasons why legacy auto cannot compete with Tesla but that would make this post even longer.

BTW, Tesla would not have been let in the S&P 500 Index unless they had a record of being consistently profitable. The story that seems so popular in anti-Tesla hit pieces (that Tesla is not profitable) is a fabrication by haters who want to spread FUD. Tesla has been profitable every quarter for the last 6 quarters in a row and they have industry leading gross margins on the vehicles they produce. These margins keep getting better as volume ramps and Tesla innovates ways to make the products better and cheaper. This is shocking the industry that Tesla could achieve these kinds of margins on such small volumes and so early in their short history of mass-production. Legacy auto, in general, has declining profitability and the difference is growing, not shrinking. Trends matter. Because trying to turn around an established automaker is like trying to do a 360 in a container ship.

I hope you learned a little something about what sets Tesla apart from the rest and why people who know Tesla the best are not afraid that "the competition is coming". Tesla WANTS the competition in the EV space to come more quickly to hasten the global transition to sustainable energy. This is important and the quality of life of humans all over the globe depend upon this. :cool:
 
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Competition?

Impressive range. Besides price, one of my requirements is a range of at least 400 miles before I’d consider an EV. If this keeps up, maybe my next car will be an EV.

China’s EV war: Tesla faces a rival with a record 621-mile range as NIO’s ET7 electric car raises the ante in world’s largest market

”NIO is sending a strong message that it will stand firm in making better and smarter cars than its rivals including Tesla,” said Peter Chen, an engineer with car component maker TRW. “Judging from the ET7’s design and price tag, NIO is hoping to keep its edge over other leading EV makers with its technology and driving range.”

https://www.scmp.com/business/compa...la-faces-rival-record-621-mile-range-nios-et7
 
… According to auto industry expert Sandy Munro, Tesla is the only automaker that develops unique metal alloys specific to Tesla’s requirements. The unusual alloy he discovered on a Model 3 is a special aluminum alloy for structural pressure cast parts. Legacy auto just uses an off-the-shelf alloy but it requires heat treating after manufacturing to achieve the necessary strength. And the heat treating causes uneven warpage which limited the variety of shapes that could be cast without unacceptable warpage and the extra heat-treating process added to the cost and energy it took to build each vehicle. So Tesla developed a unique aluminum alloy that was strong enough without the extra step of heat treating and maintained it’s dimensionally uniform shape. Munro was shocked - he said a legacy automaker would never consider developing a new alloy because they didn’t have that kind of expertise in-house. …
Wow. That Teslarati Kool-Aid must be powerful stuff!

Die casting was invented the early 1800s. Do you really think that in 170 or so years it never occurred to anyone that the casting alloys should be optimized? It took the genius of Tesla to come up with this idea?

Any of the OEMs will have metallurgy scientists and ChemEs who seriously outnumber any staff that Tesla could afford. Here’s an old reference: https://www.amazon.com/Metallurgy-Wheels-Story-Metals-Motors/dp/1290233578#reader_B00S5MTYYS True enough, the OEM staffs probably do not develop alloys; that is the job of the metal suppliers – who work ceaselessly at it. Alcoa alone spends $30M/year in R&D. The auto OEM staff folks are going to be doing evaluations and coaching, working with the metals suppliers who are constantly chasing the golden carrot of increased metal sales to a die casting industry that is far larger than just the vehicle manufacturers. This is the same relationship that yielded HSLA steel and galvanneal sheet. My guess is that the metal manufacturers probably have had little interest in doing special things for Tesla because Tesla was such a tiny company and, really, with sub-1% worldwide market share, is still a tiny market for die casting alloys.
 
Wow. That Teslarati Kool-Aid must be powerful stuff!

It's called analysis and it's how I've made my living for 30 years.

Die casting was invented the early 1800s. Do you really think that in 170 or so years it never occurred to anyone that the casting alloys should be optimized? It took the genius of Tesla to come up with this idea?

Any of the OEMs will have metallurgy scientists and ChemEs who seriously outnumber any staff that Tesla could afford. Here’s an old reference: https://www.amazon.com/Metallurgy-Wheels-Story-Metals-Motors/dp/1290233578#reader_B00S5MTYYS True enough, the OEM staffs probably do not develop alloys; that is the job of the metal suppliers – who work ceaselessly at it. Alcoa alone spends $30M/year in R&D. The auto OEM staff folks are going to be doing evaluations and coaching, working with the metals suppliers who are constantly chasing the golden carrot of increased metal sales to a die casting industry that is far larger than just the vehicle manufacturers. This is the same relationship that yielded HSLA steel and galvanneal sheet. My guess is that the metal manufacturers probably have had little interest in doing special things for Tesla because Tesla was such a tiny company and, really, with sub-1% worldwide market share, is still a tiny market for die casting alloys.

You completely missed the point.

Sandy Munro is an auto manufacturing expert. He cut his teeth in the industry, now he disassembles new models, weighs, analyzes measures and estimates costs of every part (including assembly cost), compiles all the info into binders and sells it to other manufacturers for tens of thousands of dollars.

When he was analyzing the Tesla Model Y he took a sample of the metal out of one of the control arms and sent it to a lab for metallurgical analysis. He did this because the metal was unlike that of any other pressure cast part he had ever seen.

What he learned was it's a unique alloy, developed by Tesla to eliminate the costly and time and energy consuming step of heat-treating the parts as they come out of the die. He was shocked at how driven Tesla was to improve materials and reduce costs. This is only one little example of many of what provides real value to the consumer by decreasing costs and increasing quality. Mr. Munro said you don't see this kind of innovation coming out of Detroit. He would know, he tears down about 20 cars/year and was astounded and impressed with the innovations Tesla has been introducing into their new models and the speed with which they improve things.

If you are not impressed it's because you don't have the 50 years of auto industry experience of Sandy Munro. Most people will trust a real expert over an armchair quarterback. Maybe you are not even familiar with Munro and Associates.

It's nice that Alcoa spends $30 million a year in R&D and that all automakers benefit from that but Tesla is taking it to the next level as evidenced in the finished product.

If you are interested in learning more about this, I recommend watching some Youtube videos published by Munro and Associates. Sadly, it seems you are not that interested in anything that might show Tesla's many strengths and would rather push back at the very idea that Tesla's rapid innovation could provide a competitive edge. This innovation is very relevant to the topic of this thread because it's a compelling reason why Tesla is a good investment for the long run.

I'm not sure why you always adopt an anti-Tesla perspective with no real facts to support the anti-Tesla rhetoric. I'm trying to help investors understand a little more why Tesla is not a fad driven by irrational fan-boys as so often portrayed in the popular press. The Tesla story is supported by the facts on the ground that depict a new American automaker with industry leading innovation bringing ground-breaking new technology to the automotive market at ever decreasing prices. That is why they are winning, not because it's a cult.

Interesting fact: Ford took 150 months to produce their 1 millionth car. Tesla did it in 143 months. Sure, they only have about 1 % of the auto market currently but every automaker has to start somewhere. Tesla has two new gigafactories coming on-line later this year, one in Austin, TX and one in Berlin, Germany. These are brand-new, state-of-the-art facilities and Tesla's auto production is poised to explode. The fact that they only have 1% of the market currently is actually a good thing for an investor buying growth.

I think all patriotic American's can be proud of these achievements bringing good paying jobs and revitalizing the American auto industry in a way that hasn't been seen in over 100 years.

It's not just autos either. Later this year or early next year Tesla will start delivering the most modern American-built semi-tractors in existence. Fully loaded to 80,000 lbs. GVWR (the maximum allowed by law), a Tesla semi will be able to maintain 65 mph up mountain grades that bring all other semis down to 35 mph as their diesel engines rev to their peak power output. This makes American highways safer and more convenient while keeping communities on major highways more peaceful and improving air quality. And going down hills a Tesla semi doesn't use a noisy Jake brake - it uses the silent electric motors to recharge it's battery packs. And with a heavy load the amount of energy that can be reclaimed on a long mountain grade is considerable. Again, this increases safety on America's highways while virtually eliminating the regular brake replacement that legacy trucks require. And semi brakes are huge expensive affairs so this is a very real cost savings that will go directly to a trucking companies bottom line. This will help lower prices for consumers of all goods that arrive by trucks.

The reasons TSLA is such a compelling investment are too numerous to list even 1% of them in a single post. And I know you are skeptical so here's what I suggest:

In 2025 we meet again and compare notes to see how this unfolded. We will look at TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits. This will clearly show who had the most vision. :cool:
 
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Interesting discussion. I generally reserve my discussion of Tesla products and company related info to the Tesla dedicated forums where other enthusiasts hang out. But I’m always fascinated by the strong opinions people have against Tesla or electric vehicles in general.

We actively discuss other technologies in this forum - Android vs IOS, Windows vs PC, Quicken vs Mondeydance...and the discussion never gets heated. But if we start saying things about Tesla it seems to evoke strong reactions. I’ve never understood why. People can be an enthusiast about anything they want. If you are not an enthusiast of the subject being discussed I would think you would just move on and not participate.
 
Interesting discussion. I generally reserve my discussion of Tesla products and company related info to the Tesla dedicated forums where other enthusiasts hang out. But I’m always fascinated by the strong opinions people have against Tesla or electric vehicles in general.

We actively discuss other technologies in this forum - Android vs IOS, Windows vs PC, Quicken vs Mondeydance...and the discussion never gets heated. But if we start saying things about Tesla it seems to evoke strong reactions. I’ve never understood why. People can be an enthusiast about anything they want. If you are not an enthusiast of the subject being discussed I would think you would just move on and not participate.

Good comments. I think some people feel threatened by Tesla and, as an investor, that's a good sign. Disrupters can only disrupt by displacing existing profit centers - oil, gas, dealerships, auto parts, engine shops, gas stations and suppliers, tanker truck manufacturers, the list is long.

The market is predicting Tesla will make huge profits over the next several years and those profits don't materialize from thin air - they come from decimating other existing industries. Which is why investors don't want to be on the wrong side of history when it comes to future developments in transportation and energy. It doesn't take many dogs in your portfolio to ruin the returns you are counting on for a retirement free from money worries.
 
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Interesting discussion. I generally reserve my discussion of Tesla products and company related info to the Tesla dedicated forums where other enthusiasts hang out. But I’m always fascinated by the strong opinions people have against Tesla or electric vehicles in general.

We actively discuss other technologies in this forum - Android vs IOS, Windows vs PC, Quicken vs Mondeydance...and the discussion never gets heated. But if we start saying things about Tesla it seems to evoke strong reactions. I’ve never understood why. People can be an enthusiast about anything they want. If you are not an enthusiast of the subject being discussed I would think you would just move on and not participate.

I agree. I have not said anything about Tesla, because the fact is I don't know much about it, so I try to read and learn and hope something catches my eye in a way it didn't before. But I am intrigued about Tesla to say the least.
 
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I was a TSLA doubter for a long time, but decided to begin speculating with ~5% of my portfolio last year, and one of my picks was TSLA pre-split. I only put $10k in, so I'm not out dancing in the street, but it's still fun to have a "2 bagger" in my portfolio. I think TSLA has a chance to justify its current valuations and possibly even more. If they can continue to bring in raw materials through one door, add their engineering and IP to them, and sell the resulting products out the exit for much higher margins than traditional automakers, what's not to like? Also, and this is just my gut feeling, I believe that TSLA's consumers are willing to pay more for their products than a direct comparison to say a Honda Accord would have one believe is reasonable. Kind of like Apple has been able to do throughout its history.
 
... I believe that TSLA's consumers are willing to pay more for their products than a direct comparison to say a Honda Accord would have one believe is reasonable. Kind of like Apple has been able to do throughout its history.

I think you are 100% correct. I like Tesla and what they stand for, but I can't bring myself to buy one. My most recent auto purchase was an 8 year old Accord that I got for about 10K and it will most likely last me years (barring accidents/etc). I also like Apple products, but again, I don't own anything Apple makes and I don't think I have EVER spent more than $200 for a cell phone.

Nonetheless, I did jump on the TSLA bandwagon as an investor and have been pretty happy with the gains.
 
... In 2025 we meet again and compare notes to see how this unfolded. We will look at TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits. This will clearly show who had the most vision. :cool:
OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits?

My vision is that Tesla will have become or will clearly be on the way to becoming a fairly ordinary, though interesting, company. The stock price will have collapsed as necessary to produce earnings per share of 5% or more and revenues and vehicle market share will reflect Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve. Also, Tesla's share in China may have been limited by government actions, as Xi will not permit any American auto company to dominate his home market. There is also existential risk for Tesla if a competitor or group of competitors are able to develop batteries of much higher energy density and choose to limit Tesla's access to them. Tesla's other lines of business will be minor revenue contributors unless events, internal or external, seriously damage the vehicle business.
 
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OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits?

My vision is that Tesla will have become or will clearly be on the way to becoming a fairly ordinary, though interesting, company. The stock price will have collapsed as necessary to produce earnings per share of 5% or more and revenues and vehicle market share will reflect Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve. Also, Tesla's share in China may have been limited by government actions, as Xi will not permit any American auto company to dominate his home market. There is also existential risk for Tesla if a competitor or group of competitors are able to develop batteries of much higher energy density and choose to limit Tesla's access to them. Tesla's other lines of business will be minor revenue contributors unless events, internal or external, seriously damage the vehicle business.

I look forward to reading this in TSLA's next SEC filing. :D
 
OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits?

My vision is that Tesla will have become or will clearly be on the way to becoming a fairly ordinary, though interesting, company. The stock price will have collapsed as necessary to produce earnings per share of 5% or more and revenues and vehicle market share will reflect Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve. Also, Tesla's share in China may have been limited by government actions, as Xi will not permit any American auto company to dominate his home market. There is also existential risk for Tesla if a competitor or group of competitors are able to develop batteries of much higher energy density and choose to limit Tesla's access to them. Tesla's other lines of business will be minor revenue contributors unless events, internal or external, seriously damage the vehicle business.

That is very vague.
For more specifics, I recommend this breakdown.

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/

This is a year old, but still gives a very good framework.
BTW, the bear case, assumes Tesla will maintain loose some of their 18% global EV market share. The bull case assumes they will maintain the 18%.
 
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That is very vague.
Yup. The future is vague. No surprise there.

For more specifics, I recommend this breakdown.

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/

This is a year old, but still gives a very good framework.
BTW, the bear case, assumes Tesla will maintain loose some of their 18% global EV market share. The bull case assumes they will maintain the 18%.
I always get a kick out of this type of thing. Basically, the methodolgy is to start by picking a number whose future value is uncertain. Then, keeping that first number, pick a second number whose future value is also uncertain. Then, a third number ... And so on. Pretty soon the forecaster has a whole set of numbers where the joint probability of them all happening is close to zero, now he/she starts to draw conclusions. Garbage in, Gospel out. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out

The test of a piece like this lies outside the piece. What is the anonymous prognosticator's ten year track record including all forecasts made? Funny, no one ever offers this information when they are publishing forecasts. The best you get is crowing about a cherry-picked case where they were right.

I'm sure if you go back a few years you can find many very amusing analyses of Tesla written in the same convincing style as this one, and totally wrong. The more exact (i.e., non-vague) the forecast the less likely it is to materialize.

I just finished re-reading a very good book. If you're interested in this kind of thing, try "The Drunkard's Walk. How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow, a Berkeley/Caltech professor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Mlodinow
 
So, do not have the article and am not going to look for it...


I was reading Road & Track (IIRC) about their experience with an electric car.... the article was about how it was cheaper to 'fill up' at home...


BUT, the thing that caught my eye was if you charged at a supercharger it was 26 cents per KWH which they calculated was over $8 per gallon equivalent....



So, for my longer trips I need to allocate 45 mins to an hour and a half to fill up AND is is going to cost me over $8 'per gallon'?





BTW, you missed my point about earnings... when you are growing you can get away with not producing the earnings that your valuation might require as there is still growth to consider... but if you are a $5 trillion company there is little growth that is going to happen... so you need to produce $500 bill to $1 trillion of PROFIT to support that valuation...


A quick look shows that the entire auto industry is not making close to that much... so Tesla needs to be able to sell 100% of vehicles and make more money per vehicle than the avg manufacturer...



BTW, since Fiat Chrysler is still selling a bunch of vehicles even though all reports show they are not even close to being as good as others there is no way that Tesla will be able to take over the market...


Again, my comments are on the valuation of Tesla... it is now a profitable company and will more than likely be in business for a long time... but worth $5 trillion.... not in my lifetime....
 
So, do not have the article and am not going to look for it...


I was reading Road & Track (IIRC) about their experience with an electric car.... the article was about how it was cheaper to 'fill up' at home...


BUT, the thing that caught my eye was if you charged at a supercharger it was 26 cents per KWH which they calculated was over $8 per gallon equivalent....



So, for my longer trips I need to allocate 45 mins to an hour and a half to fill up AND is is going to cost me over $8 'per gallon'?

That article makes no sense. At .26/KwH I spend about .08/mile to drive my Model 3. That is twice as much as home charging, so it is more expensive. But how they went from .08/mile to $8.00 per gallon is beyond me. What ICE car are they comparing it to? And where did you come up with 45-90 minutes to supercharge? I average 15 minutes.
 
BUT, the thing that caught my eye was if you charged at a supercharger it was 26 cents per KWH which they calculated was over $8 per gallon equivalent.....

I'm not sure how on earth they calculated $8 /gal equivalent but it's not true. I recently bought a Tesla and just returned from my first road trip:

North TX > Canton, OH > Sarasota, FL > Houston, TX > North TX - Just under 5k miles total.

Mostly mild weather but I ran the heater the entire time and seat warmers part of the time. One hotel had free overnight charging and one super charger was free for reasons unknown to me. I paid a total of $213.31 for charging. It would have been much more expensive in my ICE which gets 30 mpg/hwy at best.

As well, most stops were 20 to 30 minutes. The only reason I stayed 45 or so minutes was when the next charger in the path was a bit too far of a distance. The latter will resolve over time.

All in all, it was a good experience and interestingly, I was never alone at a super charger location except for one I arrived at around 2 something in the morning. I also never had to wait although I filled the last open stall in one location.

I'm not saying that an EV is for everyone; just that the article you read seemed to have some wrong information .
 
OK. What is your vision for market cap, revenues, market share and profits?

My vision is that [..] Tesla's continued presence as a minor (well under 50%) player in the portion of the world vehicle market that they serve.

Wow, really going out on a limb there. In the next 5 years Tesla will have less than 50% market share! Alert the media!
 
I'm not sure how on earth they calculated $8 /gal equivalent but it's not true. I recently bought a Tesla and just returned from my first road trip:

North TX > Canton, OH > Sarasota, FL > Houston, TX > North TX - Just under 5k miles total.

Mostly mild weather but I ran the heater the entire time and seat warmers part of the time. One hotel had free overnight charging and one super charger was free for reasons unknown to me. I paid a total of $213.31 for charging. It would have been much more expensive in my ICE which gets 30 mpg/hwy at best.

As well, most stops were 20 to 30 minutes. The only reason I stayed 45 or so minutes was when the next charger in the path was a bit too far of a distance. The latter will resolve over time.

All in all, it was a good experience and interestingly, I was never alone at a super charger location except for one I arrived at around 2 something in the morning. I also never had to wait although I filled the last open stall in one location.

I'm not saying that an EV is for everyone; just that the article you read seemed to have some wrong information .

EV is quite appealing: cheaper to use and maintain. It is also fun to drive. I am ready to buy until the price becomes more affordable and the charge time down to 5 to 10 minutes. :cool:
 
Wow, really going out on a limb there. In the next 5 years Tesla will have less than 50% market share! Alert the media!

So, no chance Tesla could go from the current 1% market share to 50%? :(

Dang! I was hoping they might hit 75%. :rolleyes:

OK, that's sarcasm in case anyone out there can't tell. Just to be clear, Tesla can do exceptionally well in the automotive space even if they only hit 20% market share.

I predict that sometime before 2030 revenues from manufacturing automobiles become less than half of their total revenues.
 
And I know you are skeptical so here's what I suggest: In 2025 we meet again and compare notes to see how this unfolded. We will look at TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits. This will clearly show who had the most vision. :cool:
Still waiting to know what your vision is for "TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits."

(I suggest using market cap instead of share price, which is affected by splits, buybacks, and new issues.) I am especially looking forward to your vision's specific numbers.
 
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/...-full-year-2020-financial-results-and-webcast


Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2020 after market close on Wednesday, January 27, 2021. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2020 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.


We might get some info then.
 
Tesla has been ceding ground in Europe, with its Model 3 now only the fourth-best selling pure electric vehicle (EV) on the continent, according to recent statistics.

...

In the latest EV rankings, the Renault Zoe held onto the top spot, closely followed by the VW ID.3, according to sales figures from plug-in vehicle market database EV Volumes. Hyundai’s Kona was third ahead of the Tesla Model 3.

“While this should worry Tesla shareholders, it is even more striking that the Model S and X are not in the top 20 ranking despite direct competing models such as Audi e-tron being on the list,” Garnry added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/tes...should-trouble-investors-strategist-says.html
 
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