Tesla for the long run?

[Texas Proud]

That article makes no sense. At .26/KwH I spend about .08/mile to drive my Model 3. That is twice as much as home charging, so it is more expensive. But how they went from .08/mile to $8.00 per gallon is beyond me. What ICE car are they comparing it to? And where did you come up with 45-90 minutes to supercharge? I average 15 minutes.

How about the Tesla site...


From Houston to the Grand Canyon (the one trip that I put in) had one 75 minute charge, 1 55 minute charge and 2 45 minute charges... also a total of 10 charges..



I would think that adding 10 to 15 minutes each time you have to charge is conservative for getting to the charger and back to the main road you are on...


I am sure you have no problem with doing what they say, but for me it still is a problem...


BTW, the estimated gas savings is a whopping $31 per the Tesla site...

 

[Ready]

How about the Tesla site...


From Houston to the Grand Canyon (the one trip that I put in) had one 75 minute charge, 1 55 minute charge and 2 45 minute charges... also a total of 10 charges..



I would think that adding 10 to 15 minutes each time you have to charge is conservative for getting to the charger and back to the main road you are on...


I am sure you have no problem with doing what they say, but for me it still is a problem...


BTW, the estimated gas savings is a whopping $31 per the Tesla site...

Try plugging the route into www.abetterrouteplanner.com. I plugged in your route and got the following:

1300 mile drive
8 stops
Total charge time across 8 stops of 2 hours 31 minutes. The shortest stop was 10 minutes, the longest stop was 26 minutes.

But as we’ve discussed before, an EV is not the best car for someone who does significant long distance driving.

But if the majority of my driving was a commute of less than 200 miles per day, there is no way you would convince me to go back to driving an ICE vehicle.

Also, its pointless to compare the cost of supercharging to gasoline. You will never go to a supercharger other than on very long distance trips. So if you want to look at cost savings you need to look at the price per KWH you pay at your home compared to the cost of gasoline in your neighborhood.

 

[Texas Proud]

Try plugging the route into www.abetterrouteplanner.com. I plugged in your route and got the following:

1300 mile drive
8 stops
Total charge time across 8 stops of 2 hours 31 minutes. The shortest stop was 10 minutes, the longest stop was 26 minutes.

But as we’ve discussed before, an EV is not the best car for someone who does significant long distance driving.

But if the majority of my driving was a commute of less than 200 miles per day, there is no way you would convince me to go back to driving an ICE vehicle.

Also, its pointless to compare the cost of supercharging to gasoline. You will never go to a supercharger other than on very long distance trips. So if you want to look at cost savings you need to look at the price per KWH you pay at your home compared to the cost of gasoline in your neighborhood.

SOOOO, Tesla is not the end all when it comes to planning a trip.... I thought it was the best at everything...




Edit to add... using a standard model 3 it is not what you say... 11 stops and one at 40 minutes... 7 of them over 20 mins... plus the 15 or so to get on and off...


I will agree that it is not good for long trips... I can have one for just short trips but so far the cost differential is still too high for me... maybe in 5 to 10 years...


Still do not think Tesla will reach 5 trillion in the next 10 years though...

 

[Ready]

SOOOO, Tesla is not the end all when it comes to planning a trip.... I thought it was the best at everything...




Edit to add... using a standard model 3 it is not what you say... 11 stops and one at 40 minutes... 7 of them over 20 mins... plus the 15 or so to get on and off...


I will agree that it is not good for long trips... I can have one for just short trips but so far the cost differential is still too high for me... maybe in 5 to 10 years...


Still do not think Tesla will reach 5 trillion in the next 10 years though...

I would not even consider taking a standard range Model 3 on a long trip. That car was built for daily commutes. I was using my Long Range RWD model to do the trip planning. My car has a range of 310 miles. The current LR AWD model has a range of 353 miles so the numbers would look a little better.

 

[NoiseBoy]

And then there is this, based on data through June, 2020 (all I can see for free):

The lead of the Model-3 is impressive, with over 100 000 more sales than the #2, Renault Zoe. World-wide, one out of seven EV sold was a Tesla Model-3. While sales took a beating in Europe and North America, it gained by local production in China, where it has become the best selling NEV model by a large margin. Global sales are now close to the leading ICE competitor models'.
​

EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database

 

[tulak]

It doesn’t look like Tesla is the top NEV in China anymore?

EV competition is (finally) ramping up.

The three automakers account for nearly half of the country’s NEV sales: SAIC GM Wuling reported 36,070 electric vehicles sold in November, BYD 26,015 units and Tesla 21,604 electric cars. According to media reports, BYD represents a 138 per cent improvement over the same month last year. Almost all NEV sales were all-electric vehicles (25,553 of the aforementioned 26,015 units).

By far the most best-selling electric car in China in November was the Hong Guang Mini EV electric compact car from General Motors’ Chinese joint venture with SAIC and Wuling. 33,094 units of the Mini BEV were sold in November; 13,000 more than in October.

This is now the third month in a row that the small electric car is a best-seller, far outstripping Tesla Model 3 sales, and does not look to change any time soon.

...

In the first eleven months of the year, Tesla now has cumulative sales of over 110,000 units, which, it should be noted, is still not the same kind of exponential growth seen by Hong Guang Mini EV sales. General Motors is probably feeling pretty good about venturing into small car sales round about now.

https://www.electrive.com/2020/12/09/china-marks-strong-nev-sales-in-november/

 

[oneill225]

It doesn’t look like Tesla is the top NEV in China anymore?

EV competition is (finally) ramping up.



https://www.electrive.com/2020/12/09/china-marks-strong-nev-sales-in-november/

Do you honestly believe that a $4,400 mini-car is "competition" for the car market Tesla is starting to displace? That car is a low-margin option for those who cannot afford anything else; it would never sell in large numbers in the U.S. or most of the 1st world.

Tesla's closest emerging competition is the VW id4 and the Ford MachE. But, they are not really competition for Tesla as much as they are for traditional ICE cars. Also, they face the head winds of needing to be sold through dealerships; dealerships that make half of their profits servicing ICE cars.

Tesla not only has the best EVs, they do not advertise and they do not need to cater to middle-man dealerships that take another bite out of profits. If not for the current $7,500 EV incentive, neither the MachE nor the id4 would stand a chance against Tesla head-to-head. That incentive will expire should VW and Ford actually sell these cars in high numbers.

Please do not misunderstand me, I hope that quality EVs start popping up all over the world; ones that are as compelling as the Tesla models. That is not the case, today, however. It is also not on the immediate horizon. Tesla has a solid 2-3 year advantage over other EV makers for legit EV sales (not glorified golf carts).

I have made my money off of Tesla, so it is easy to stay in for as long as I choose. I am playing with profits, at this point. Would I buy into Tesla today? Yes. Tesla will do well for at least the next 3 years. As long as you hold onto the stock, you will have made a solid "long-term" investment regardless of lower returns after the next few years.

Those who think Tesla is just a fad for the rich, really do not grasp the shift happening from ICE to EV (and autonomous driving). The time to buy Tesla stock is not when everyone is on board, it is while doubts still remain and people are still resisting. This is when the biggest profits are still to be had and it is where Tesla will be for at least a few more years.

This is why I love hearing from EV (Tesla) doubters. I will sell my Tesla stock when the doubters give up and go into hiding (after buying an EV).

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Those who think Tesla is just a fad for the rich, really do not grasp the shift happening from ICE to EV (and autonomous driving). The time to buy Tesla stock is not when everyone is on board, it is while doubts still remain and people are still resisting. This is when the biggest profits are still to be had and it is where Tesla will be for at least a few more years.

This is why I love hearing from EV (Tesla) doubters. I will sell my Tesla stock when the doubters give up and go into hiding (after buying an EV).

That is great investment advice, get in when a winning company has a small market share. But we know that most people will never be better than average investors. People who don't understand the simple fact that you have to have some vision, the ability to see ahead of the pack, will never become good investors.

I've argued with enough "nervous Nellies" in the day to understand it's best not to try to convince them of anything. They are convinced every really good investment is a bad investment, they will probably lose their money, the stock is over-priced. It doesn't matter if I'm talking about SBUX and MSFT in the '80's, QCOM in the late '90's, or TSLA in 2020 - some people will want to be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt before they invest. And most people will NEVER be convinced, no matter how good the investment. Investors need vision in order to see more than the pack can see. You cannot teach someone 'vision'.

I started loading up on TSLA in 2019, generally 100 shares at a time (500 post-split). When it hit a split-adjusted $37 I doubled my total position all at once. Then, as I could see people were just beginning to understand the Tesla story, I added as it climbed. I also started buying leaps (longer-term call call options). Those ended up paying as much as 1000-to-1! I was rolling in the money. When Tesla fell in March on CV-19 concerns I registered at this site to share the good opportunity. But there were a lot of skeptics (and worse).

I held my core shares while taking profits on 25% as I am a dyed-in-the-wool long-term buy and hold investor, not a stock trader. I've already realized millions in profits and I have millions more in un-realized gains that I plan on holding indefinitely. This stock is not done running over the next decade - in the end it will have proven to be a much better investment than Amazon.

As usual, do your own research. But beware, there is plenty of anti-Tesla information made up by Tesla short-sellers and others whose financial interests are seriously threatened by the disruption Tesla is bringing to huge industries. Oil and gas, electrical utilities, legacy auto, are all hugely threatened. This disinformation campaign has scared off the most timid investors and that just makes it better for investors like myself over the long run. Wall Street is just now starting to understand the likely future path of Tesla.

 

[braumeister]

Tesla will do well for at least the next 3 years. As long as you hold onto the stock, you will have made a solid "long-term" investment regardless of lower returns after the next few years.

This stock is not done running over the next decade - in the end it will have proven to be a much better investment than Amazon.

I don't think there is any question that Tesla makes outstanding cars, and I certainly agree that we are seeing the early stages of a major shift from ICE to EV.

But I think there is a big difference between buying one and investing in the company's stock at this point.

 

[oneill225]

I don't think there is any question that Tesla makes outstanding cars, and I certainly agree that we are seeing the early stages of a major shift from ICE to EV.

But I think there is a big difference between buying one and investing in the company's stock at this point.

I get the hesitation. Buying into a fast rising stock is unnerving, but some fast rising stocks have more than just momentum going for them. I view Tesla as another Amazon, Apple, Netflix, etc....back when those stocks finally turned a corner and became staples for world consumers. You can find lots of analyst stories declaring Amazon "overvalued" when they lost money year after year while building out their distribution systems. Remember the warnings that the big retailers would crush Amazon whenever they decided to get into the online sales game? Some things are not as easy as they appear.

I am not recommending that Tesla should be your only investment, but betting relatively early on a company so far ahead in the worldwide shift from ICE to EV is not as risky as some would have you believe. For those who want to diversify a little more while still getting a good chunk of Tesla, I would recommend the ARK funds.

 

[OldShooter]

... you have to have some vision, the ability to see ahead of the pack ...

Still waiting to see your "vision" as promised in your post #80. Just a few numbers or percentages of the market: " In 2025 ... TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits"

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Still waiting to see your "vision" as promised in your post #80. Just a few numbers or percentages of the market: " In 2025 ... TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits"

I've decided I've provided more than enough info to let people know where I stand. The bottom line is, "will TSLA be a good investment?". In five years I believe the results will be so good there will be no doubt it was a great investment and that my vision more closely matched reality. You will call it luck and say at the time it was a very risky move that just happened to work out against all odds.

So it's pointless in this instance

 

[oneill225]

Still waiting to see your "vision" as promised in your post #80. Just a few numbers or percentages of the market: " In 2025 ... TSLA's share price, revenues, market share and profits"

What's the point? We can pull any numbers out of our hiney, as can you.

It does not require precise psychic ability to recognize that Tesla appears to have a bright future in the world marketplace for many years to come. These are, of course, educated guesses that rely on many factors and a little luck. Since when can anyone accurately predict future success down to the dollar with any certainty? That standard is not achievable even without lifechanging events like pandemics and war.

The best we can do is predict trends based on history, the world as it is, and how we hope it will be.

To that end, history has shown us the financial success that transformational companies can experience. A lot of TSLA buyers believe that Tesla is on a similar upward trajectory as Amazon 5-10 years ago. This is Amazon's historical chart:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/stock-splits

I would guess that Tesla is about where Amazon was in 2016. Pulling a fictional future number or percentage out my rear-end does not make it more or less likely to happen.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I don't think there is any question that Tesla makes outstanding cars, and I certainly agree that we are seeing the early stages of a major shift from ICE to EV.

But I think there is a big difference between buying one and investing in the company's stock at this point.

I think it's interesting that both of the quotes you are responding to speak only to each persons belief that TSLA stock (not the cars) will be a good long-term investment (without addressing any of the benefits of owning Tesla products) and you counter that by saying there is no question the cars are outstanding products but there is a difference between car buying and investing.

I feel like our intelligence has been insulted. Of course there's a difference between buying a car and investing in the company that makes them! Why don't you address why you think the stock will not be a good long-term investment? Are we to take your praise of the product as a sign that you have no anti-Tesla bias and are just calling it how you see it?

 

[braumeister]

I feel like our intelligence has been insulted.

I'm sorry you feel that way.
Carry on.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I would guess that Tesla is about where Amazon was in 2016. Pulling a fictional future number or percentage out my rear-end does not make it more or less likely to happen.

Yes. I'm more of a "big picture" kind of investor (as opposed to trying to project growth using spreadsheets down to a gnat's eyelash) and it's worked out really well for me. OldShooter calls it luck, I call it discovering what works and sticking to it. Buy and hold. The better the company, the better the results. I've had investments that grew faster but none with the magic combination of growth and staying power that I expect from Tesla.

I do think your 2016 comparison is off a little bit considering the gigantic difference in the size of the markets Tesla is addressing vs. those of Amazon. Of course, Amazon has a history of growing the number of markets they address (they started out as books only) but so does Tesla.


One area discussed by Tesla as being ripe for disruption and a natural fit for their home energy solutions is residential climate control systems. A person's home is their castle and people want the security of knowing they can afford to keep it livable and that even if the world around them has increasing storms (whether the 'storms' be physical, political or economic) that they will be able to maintain a comfortable home.

Water needs to be heated and the home needs to maintain comfortable temperatures - this should all be integrated into scalable solutions that are easy to design and install. It could include refrigerators and freezers too. They could all share the same one or two highly efficient heat pumps. Currently, refrigerators dump their heat inside the house which is good in the winter but adds additional cooling loads in the summer. Tesla can leverage their knowledge of systems integration and innovations like their Octovalve (first introduced in the Model 3) to seamlessly and efficiently transfer heat energy where it needs to go. The potential savings here are huge and it's really stupidly inefficient the way it's currently done.

By coupling ultra-efficient heat pump systems with Tesla's residential energy storage and production products, residences of the future can be largely or entirely grid independent while saving money and maintaining a pleasant home environment.

Current heat pump systems are too expensive to purchase and too difficult to install, their design is piecemeal and they are not versatile in terms of being a whole house energy solution. The all-electric home was sold in the 1950's and 1960's as the future and Americans were encouraged to consume all that cheap electricity being pumped out by huge hydroelectric dams. But the heating was resistive, the air conditioners inefficient and the price of electricity was soon to climb making it uneconomical with natural gas.

Technology has flipped this equation using solar and batteries to create and store the energy on-site and highly efficient mini-split heating/cooling systems that are 3-5 times more efficient at heating an cooling than resistive heat and window air conditioners.

Tesla may leverage their fast growing customer base for home energy and transportation solutions to expand into integrated climate control systems. Customer acquisition costs are a large expenditure for traditional heating/cooling companies, Tesla doesn't even advertise! This saves the consumer a lot of money by allowing superior products at lower prices.

My point with all this is that it is but one example of how Tesla is more like Amazon was in 2009, not 2016. From an investment standpoint, this matters.

 

[OldShooter]

What's the point? We can pull any numbers out of our hiney, as can you. ...

Not my idea. In post #38, @RetiredAtThirty-eight proposed that we share our "vision" for TSLA. I did so in a reasonably specific way, but he has not. IIRC at one earlier point he forecast a market cap of $2-3trn. I am very curious to see the revenues, market share and profits that could support such numbers. I tried, but failed, in post #52.

 

[Bamaman]

Almost 500,000 cars delivered in 2020. Moving to Texas and building a huge new factory there.

Wonder when they're going to turn a profit? What would the stock price be with proper management in such a heavy industrial environment?

I'm not sold on a car that's (1) so expensive, (2) has no dealers, (3) has no outside mechanics that can do repairs and (4) does not sell parts to the public. Just try to get one repaired if it's in a wreck. And I don't care to have to plan out every 200 mile trip so I can find a Supercharger.

 

[Christine]

Wonder when they're going to turn a profit?

They already did.

 

[braumeister]

I think he means without counting the sales of emission credits. Is it profitable just on car sales yet?

 

[oneill225]

Almost 500,000 cars delivered in 2020. Moving to Texas and building a huge new factory there.

Wonder when they're going to turn a profit? What would the stock price be with proper management in such a heavy industrial environment?

I'm not sold on a car that's (1) so expensive, (2) has no dealers, (3) has no outside mechanics that can do repairs and (4) does not sell parts to the public. Just try to get one repaired if it's in a wreck. And I don't care to have to plan out every 200 mile trip so I can find a Supercharger.

Not sure what constitutes "proper management" in your view. Ford, GM, VW? They are all scrambling to create an EV that can compete in the market with Tesla. Not very impressive from a management standpoint.

Regarding profit, Tesla will complete two new and massive factories in Berlin and Austin this year while the CA and China factory are producing thousands of Model Ys and 3s each week, currently. Projections for 2021 are a million cars sold. Tesla also is expanding on its huge advantage in charging infrastructure.

Yes, the cars are still too expensive, but not by much and the prices are coming down while the driving range is going up. A 263 mile Model 3 will cost about $38,000 and a 244 mile Model Y sells for $42,000. Higher mileage versions are a little more:

https://www.tesla.com/modely/design#battery

Price out a similarly equipped Toyota Camry or Rav4 and you will pay close to the same.

No dealers is an advantage, not a weakness. What value do you find in buying from a dealer?

Service must continue to improve, but give it time. Starting from nothing takes a few years. I would note that you will never have to change your oil, timing belts, or brakes with an EV, although tires will wear a little faster due to better torque and acceleration.

Cross country drives in a Tesla will cost about 1/3 less than ICE cars, but you are correct that charging will force you to take a break every 4 or 5 hours. Supercharging takes 30-40 minutes. I would get a meal, visit a restroom, and stretch my legs during that time, but I understand some are in a bigger hurry.

When not on cross country trips you can charge in your garage or carport. In my view, the time saved avoiding weekly trips to the local gas station outweighs the extra time spent charging on a cross country.

EVs are displacing ICE vehicles as we speak and the pace will continue to grow. This thread asks about the "long-term" investment value. If the future is with EVs, then the long-term is looking good.

 

[MRG]

Almost 500,000 cars delivered in 2020. Moving to Texas and building a huge new factory there.

Wonder when they're going to turn a profit? What would the stock price be with proper management in such a heavy industrial environment?

I'm not sold on a car that's (1) so expensive, (2) has no dealers, (3) has no outside mechanics that can do repairs and (4) does not sell parts to the public. Just try to get one repaired if it's in a wreck. And I don't care to have to plan out every 200 mile trip so I can find a Supercharger.

I'll be picking mine up after hitting a deer at high speed. They said 8 weeks and that was real, they needed an extra 2 to replace the PPF, same as any vehicle.

I've never been to a Tesla showroom. Why? I purchased from the internet and they delivered the vehicle to my front door. It's natural to think anything different is somehow bad but I'm not sure what I ever got from a dealership except a hard time. Matter of fact when I had a Ford that was a lemon the dealership did everything they could to discourage me from getting my money back.

 

[Qs Laptop]

I think he means without counting the sales of emission credits. Is it profitable just on car sales yet?

If I'm reading the income statements and news reports correctly, Tesla received $448M in revenues from regulatory emissions credits from other car makers in Q2 2020 and had revenues of $6.04 billion in Q2 2020. Earnings for Q2 were $104M. So, yes, I'd say they are showing a profit without counting the sales of emission credits.

Also, the federal emissions tax credit scheme is getting changed in 2021. Emission credits earned prior to 2017 will expire at the end of 2021 and gradually be phased out.

As far as the federal tax credits for buying Teslas--that was gradually being phased out over the years and ended on December 31, 2019.

 

[P.S.]

R@38, oneill, and MRG:
Thanks for contributing to and continuing the debate.
I like the book “Factfulness” by Rosling for an in-your-face explanation of humanity moving on. Each generation pushes onward, changes become more seismic. Might be messy, all kinds of dead ends and false leads, but always forward... forward.

 

[braumeister]

If I'm reading the income statements and news reports correctly, Tesla received $448M in revenues from regulatory emissions credits from other car makers in Q2 2020 and had revenues of $6.04 billion in Q2 2020. Earnings for Q2 were $104M. So, yes, I'd say they are showing a profit without counting the sales of emission credits.

I was looking at this article from October in US News, which said

Revenue rose to a record $8.77 billion from $6.30 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected revenue of $8.36 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of 76 cents per share. It reported net income of $331 million, or $874 million excluding stock-based compensation awards given to Musk.

Revenue from the sale of regulatory credits made up $397 million. Without that revenue, Tesla would not have achieved a profitable quarter.