Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

My bold above. What exactly is exceeding expectations? And who's expectations?
Certainly not production estimates...
Certainly not autopilot features.... (only to be used on the freeway as it can't recognize a traffic light, etc)
Etc, etc, etc...

Do short sellers have high expectations? Tesla has been near the top of the short seller list for many months.

Within the past year, Tesla was predicted by many on this site to be on the verge of bankruptcy and/or unable to make a profit.

You are looking the other way if you do not think Tesla has faced a long string of dire predictions and continues to do so.

If, and when, they come out with the 35k Model 3, they will have again exceeded the expectations of many doubters.

Did you predict that Tesla would be approaching 200,000 Model 3 at this point? Did you predict that Tesla would be exporting to Europe and China at this point?

The fact that Tesla has a lot of "fans" and believers does not negate the fact that there is a significant crowd out there who have been predicting their failure for years.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
My bold above. What exactly is exceeding expectations? And who's expectations?
Certainly not production estimates...
Certainly not autopilot features.... (only to be used on the freeway as it can't recognize a traffic light, etc)
Etc, etc, etc...

Do short sellers have high expectations? Tesla has been near the top of the short seller list for many months. ...

Your reply does not address the question. You have a habit of doing that. Inconvenient facts? Change the subject!

We've told you before, an investor should LOVE shorts! Those shorts will be a force to prop up the stock on a drop. Some will use the drop as an opportunity to buy to cover their short. On a drop, you want buyers coming in to stabilize the stock.

Clearly, the comment was addressed to the expectations of the investors, we know what the expectations of shorts are.

... Within the past year, Tesla was predicted by many on this site to be on the verge of bankruptcy and/or unable to make a profit..

Really? Show me the posts of people predicting bankruptcy by this time. How many individual posters? How many is many? More than 3?

"Unable" to make a profit? Well, their profit is pretty marginal, and they have not had a full year of profits. Not sure that means much. But show me the posts anyway. I'm sure you could find posters questioning whether they could turn a profit, but predicting it? Maybe, but I doubt you will find "many".

... You are looking the other way if you do not think Tesla has faced a long string of dire predictions and continues to do so. ...

I don't think anyone denies that. Just about any start up does, it's the nature of the beast. Start ups are risky, and many questions due to the lack of history and an uncertain market. So?

If, and when, they come out with the 35k Model 3, they will have again exceeded the expectations of many doubters. ...

If? Ummm, if a $35,000 M3 does not materialize, they certainly did miss expectations.

And it sure appears that a significant number of the reservation holders expect a $35K M3, and some (most? many?) before the tax credit further evaporates.

To exceed expectations, they would have had it out before year end 2018. Didn't Musk ever refer to a $35,000 price minus $7,500 tax credit? Therefore, setting expectations?


https://electrek.co/2018/02/11/tesl...e-might-open-the-door-to-other-electric-cars/

But it still leaves a significant number of Model 3 reservation holders counting on the $35,000 base price.

In the US, some of them are even stretching their budget and counting on the $7,500 tax credit in order to buy the Model 3.

There's expectations for you. From an EV site. Those expectations were not met.

... Did you predict that Tesla would be approaching 200,000 Model 3 at this point? Did you predict that Tesla would be exporting to Europe and China at this point?...

Again, you are not addressing the comment. It wasn't about the posters's expectations, it's about investor/fans expectations. Musk set expectations of 10,000 M3s a week.

Sure, we aren't supposed to listen to the (this) CEO. Those 'expectations' don't count.

... The fact that Tesla has a lot of "fans" and believers does not negate the fact that there is a significant crowd out there who have been predicting their failure for years.

Again, not the question.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Your reply does not address the question. You have a habit of doing that. Inconvenient facts? Change the subject!
We've told you before, an investor should LOVE shorts! Those shorts will be a force to prop up the stock on a drop. Some will use the drop as an opportunity to buy to cover their short. On a drop, you want buyers coming in to stabilize the stock.
Clearly, the comment was addressed to the expectations of the investors, we know what the expectations of shorts are.
Really? Show me the posts of people predicting bankruptcy by this time. How many individual posters? How many is many? More than 3?
"Unable" to make a profit? Well, their profit is pretty marginal, and they have not had a full year of profits. Not sure that means much. But show me the posts anyway. I'm sure you could find posters questioning whether they could turn a profit, but predicting it? Maybe, but I doubt you will find "many".
I don't think anyone denies that. Just about any start up does, it's the nature of the beast. Start ups are risky, and many questions due to the lack of history and an uncertain market. So?
If? Ummm, if a $35,000 M3 does not materialize, they certainly did miss expectations.
And it sure appears that a significant number of the reservation holders expect a $35K M3, and some (most? many?) before the tax credit further evaporates.
To exceed expectations, they would have had it out before year end 2018. Didn't Musk ever refer to a $35,000 price minus $7,500 tax credit? Therefore, setting expectations?
https://electrek.co/2018/02/11/tesl...e-might-open-the-door-to-other-electric-cars/
There's expectations for you. From an EV site. Those expectations were not met.
Again, you are not addressing the comment. It wasn't about the posters's expectations, it's about investor/fans expectations. Musk set expectations of 10,000 M3s a week.
Sure, we aren't supposed to listen to the (this) CEO. Those 'expectations' don't count.
Again, not the question.
-ERD50

So funny and a great example of the rabbit holes that you cherish, so much.

My point was simple: Tesla has had and continues to have many doubters (investor and non-investor). Not very controversial.

 

[ERD50]

So funny and a great example of the rabbit holes that you cherish, so much. ....

This is the kind of comment that the moderator's warned about. Please stick to replying to the content of a post, instead of attacking the poster, and making assumptions of their motivations.

If you honestly think my comments are some form of 'rabbit hole', then demonstrate that objectively. You don't know what I do or do not "cherish", so leave it out of your posts please.

.... My point was simple: Tesla has had and continues to have many doubters (investor and non-investor). Not very controversial.

I get your point (well, some of it - clearly no 'investor' is predicting bankruptcy?). But it had nothing to do with the post you replied to. So it is a pointless point.

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

Within the past year, Tesla was predicted by many on this site to be on the verge of bankruptcy and/or unable to make a profit.

I challenge you to provide a list of said people and/or posts that substantiate your comment.

 

[oneill225]

I challenge you to provide a list of said people and/or posts that substantiate your comment.

Why would I waste my time in such a way? Just one example to jog your memory: Tesla needs to come up with a lot of money in March if the stock price is below 360. I have seen repeated prognostications (in this very thread) suggesting that it could be their breaking point. If you can't find them, then you are not looking. These are not wild claims.

 

[bobandsherry]

Why would I waste my time in such a way? Just one example to jog your memory: Tesla needs to come up with a lot of money in March if the stock price is below 360. I have seen repeated prognostications (in this very thread) suggesting that it could be their breaking point. If you can't find them, then you are not looking. These are not wild claims.

Hey, you made the statement. Guess should take that as unsubstantiated then and that you were just dead wrong.

 

[Aerides]

Mod Hat on:
****************
The mod team has been unusually lenient with this thread, given the high interest and engagement from so many members. While many of the points raised clearly bring out some contentious discussions, for the most part, members have avoided taking things personally, or engaging in off topic sniping.

However, the above few posts are failing to avoid that behavior. Please take that stuff offline, elsewhere, to allow this thread to continue for those that are enjoying the actual discussion topic.

/mod had off
***********

Repeating my post from a few days back. This is the last time I'll waste the keystrokes so please take heed.

 

[Texas Proud]

How about
The CFO discovers that he is not in charge of the financial forecast and the CEO insists on his version. Maybe the CEO is becoming erratic too? So he decides to no longer be associated with fake forecasts!

(Been there, done that!)

Good example, but I would throw that into #2...

 

[ls99]

The electricar of tesla is on the market and is selling.
Elon Musk Says Tesla’s Next Roadster Will Feature Rocket Thrusters | Fortune

His next innovation is the flying compressed gas prpulsion tesla.
"SpaceX option package for new Tesla Roadster will include ~10 small rocket thrusters arranged seamlessly around car. These rocket engines dramatically improve acceleration, top speed, braking & cornering. Maybe they will even allow a Tesla to fly …

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 9, 2018
​

These would not be flame-spitting jet engines burning rocket fuel—that would, among other problems, almost certainly not be street legal. Instead, the thrusters would be small, extremely strong vessels holding highly compressed gas. "

Seems a bit far fetched. Probably more expensive than the electric one.
Although I recall some Air Force guys caliming that a barn door can be made to fly with enough thrust. Not sure about directional control.

 

[ERD50]

Any thoughts on this (and please heed the mod warning - comment on this, not the messenger)?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ll-technologies-for-218-million-idUSKCN1PT1C9

Tesla to buy battery tech maker Maxwell Technologies for $218 million

Maxwell, whose customers include General Motors and Lamborghini, makes ultracapacitors that are used in automobile batteries to lengthen their lives. They are also used for electric energy storage on power grids.

Improved power storage is critical to two of Tesla’s main products - electric cars and backup power for homes and power utilities.

Seems like it caused at least a temporary drop in TSLA.

I don't see a place for ultra-caps in an EV. Super-caps have some attractive properties, but they are big and expensive compared to batteries. They may have a place in a hybrid, where you have a small kWh battery pack, but still need high peak power for a few seconds. That is where super-caps shine.

But with the large kWh packs in a full EV, those surge currents are easily handled, they are relatively small compared to the large pack. If not, you would not see these crazy 0-60 times in a Tesla.

In an EV, maybe to absorb regen breaking, but I doubt there is enough gain for the added space, weight, complexity and cost.

Maybe they are just buying the tech so it isn't available to competitors developing hybrids?

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

More news today (again, please heed the mod warning - comment on this, not the messenger):

https://www.reuters.com/article/vol...evices-for-ev-charging-stations-idUSL1N1ZW1O5

VW's Electrify America buys Tesla devices for EV charging stations

Electricity users can incur high-demand charges from many U.S. utilities when they draw a lot of energy from the grid in a short time, which can happen charging an electric vehicle or a number of them at once at a single station.



“If you pass the demand charge onto the customer in a high-demand charge market” it can cost anywhere from $70 to $110 to charge a vehicle, Electrify America’s chief operating officer Brendan Jones told Reuters. “If you did that, obviously nobody would buy an electric vehicle.”



Tesla Powerpack battery systems draw power from the grid during off-peak hours and store it for use during peak hours to avoid or reduce demand charges.

Interesting that VW would buy from Tesla, who I would think VW would see as a competitor. Does that indicate that Tesla's storage products are significantly better than anything else out there?

While most EV owners will charge overnight at slower rates which avoids high demand rates, it seems that most Supercharger users are going to be doing this high demand charging during the day or early evening. So each supercharger would need a significant amount of battery back up to avoid surge pricing.

For a simple illustration, assume a charge station had even 10 customers/day (seems low, at 30 minutes each, that is only 50% use over a 10 hour period). Again, keeping it simple, if you don't want to draw anything from the grid during peak times, you would need about 8 battery packs (assume 80% charge to the car) to supply that. A little less if you slow charged them throughout the day. but something like that.

That adds some significant cost to a station. At the talked about future $100/kWh, that would be ~ $80,000 adder to each station. If you added a $4 surcharge to each 'fill up' to pay for that battery, at 10 uses per day, that would over 5 years to pay for that battery pack (past time to replace it when used daily?). And that is assuming $100/kWh battery - when will we get there?

And what about the MegaChargers for a semi? The semi is ~ 10x the battery pack size, right? Multiply everything by 10.

And due to round-trip losses from charge/discharge of the back-up battery, figure you need 10%~15% additional kWh from the grid to get that energy to the EV.

-ERD50

 

[Breedlove]

How did the Tesla's do during the Polar Vortex ?

 

[NW-Bound]

I wonder how many EVs are in Australia, and if they are banned from plugging into the grid during the current heatwave.

From an Australian newspaper:

The union representative from the heart of Victoria’s brown-coal country said capacity had tightened since the closure of the Hazelwood power station in 2017, stripping 1200 megawatts from the system – 100 megawatts more than the power on tap under the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trade scheme.

He pointed to power “trips” at Loy Yang B Power Station this week – stripping more than 500 megawatts from the grid – as an example of spikes and fluctuations in a system he said needs a foundation of “baseload” power from coal and gas-fired stations.

“When everything tightens up and everything you’ve got has to keep running, that’s when maintenance problems like this become more apparent,” Mr Dyke said.

The wholesale electricity price soared as a result of the Loy Yang B failure, leaping briefly from about $80 a megawatt-hour to an incredible $12,000 and higher...

$80/MWh is 8c per kWh, in the normal range for power in the US.

$12,000/MWh is $12 per kWh. At that rate, it would cost me $1,200/day in the hottest day of summer if I maintain the same consumption.

PS. Australia is suffering another heatwave where temperature hits 124F in some spots on 1/31/2019. However, the quote above is from Jan 2018.

 

[Hamlet]

Happy customers = happy investors.

https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-model-3-tops-satisfaction-brings-joy/

This is just plain wrong. I was a really happy customer during the dotcom boom when companies like drugstore.com were willing to give me free $35 orders for just the cost of shipping. They wanted to show growth, so they sold products at a loss. Their investors did not end up happy.

I hate Comcast with a passion as a customer, and I think most of their customers do. That hasn't prevented their investors from doing very well over the years.

Selling dollars for 90 cents is very likely to make happy customers and unhappy investors.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

How did the Tesla's do during the Polar Vortex ?

Both of mine are splendid.

 

[bobandsherry]

Both of mine are splendid.

Based on your profile you are in So Cal, so well.

Here's article:

Tesla Model 3 Owners Vent About Polar Vortex Affecting Cars

Appears Tesla is going to issue an OTA software update to make improvements, not sure what that would consist of in regards to the cold.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Based on your profile you are in So Cal, so well.

Here's article:

Tesla Model 3 Owners Vent About Polar Vortex Affecting Cars

Appears Tesla is going to issue an OTA software update to make improvements, not sure what that would consist of in regards to the cold.

Tesla did say a software update is available on my Model 3 today, I scheduled it for 2AM. If it is anything relevant I'll report back.

 

[jazz4cash]

I agree on this, but I assume that the "software gizmos" are where the high margin profit is generated.

Same thing with the Big Auto guys. Selling a "basic" bare bones pickup truck? Try finding a new $27,000 Chev Colorado. (I tried, as you can "build" one on GM's website, but can't find one in the dealer stocks.)

I dunno about that. My Chevy dealer has 25 in stock and 1/3 of them are under 27k sticker (but they’re all white like every other commercial truck on the road).

 

[ERD50]

I dunno about that. My Chevy dealer has 25 in stock and 1/3 of them are under 27k sticker (but they’re all white like every other commercial truck on the road).

Cheapest near me:

https://www.libertyvillechevrolet.com/new-vehicles/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=libertyville_chevrolet_gmb#action=im_ajax_call&perform=get_results&search=colorado&page=1&type%5B%5D=New&order=DESC&orderby=price


MSRP $37,585
Lib Chevy Price $31,539


-ERD50

 

[Texas Proud]

I dunno about that. My Chevy dealer has 25 in stock and 1/3 of them are under 27k sticker (but they’re all white like every other commercial truck on the road).

Dealer nearest me has 22 and 2 are less than $27K... legit...



Another shows a number less than $27K but they include all available discounts and there is no way you can get them all...

 

[bobandsherry]

How did the Tesla's do during the Polar Vortex ?

While story is not specific to Tesla, it does mention experience with Model 3. So just kind of highlights obstacles that all EV's need to overcome.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/05/tesla-jaguar-and-nissan-evs-lose-power-in-freezing-temps-.html

 

[aja8888]

Dealer nearest me has 22 and 2 are less than $27K... legit...



Another shows a number less than $27K but they include all available discounts and there is no way you can get them all...

A year ago when I was looking, the Colorado's were flying off the shelves. I believe I have a thread somewhere on my experiences. Now, ALL truck sellers are stuffed with unsold trucks as sales have come to a halt and people are all bought up, so to say.

I'm not looking now as I stumbled on a mint condition 1998 F150 Lariat Edition, extended cab version, with 45,000 original miles on it and grabbed it. I have the original window sticker on that highly optioned F150 and it was $29,000 back in 1998.

 

[aja8888]

Let's get back to Tesla

Article on Tesla's adventure in building out a plant in China seems unrealistic from a cost perspective:

In August, Tesla claimed the all-in cost of the Shanghai Gigafactory would come out to $2 billion. On its face, this cost looks radically optimistic. Auto analyst Bertel Schmitt recently pointed out that the starting cost of building an auto manufacturing plant capable of producing 250,000 units per year is about $1.5 billion, but it can be higher. Tesla claims not only to be aiming for double that production, but also to be producing the batteries for these vehicles.

Given Tesla’s plans for the facility, the cost is likely to be at least $4 billion, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs. Automakers with extensive experience building factories around the world run into far higher costs than Tesla predicts. The China plants constructed by General Motors (GM) in recent years, for example, had an average cost of $5.6 billion per factory.

Tesla claims its planned Shanghai factory will be up and running by the end of 2019 producing 3,000 Model 3 sedans per week.

The company claims the cost of construction to hit that production rate is about $500 million and that this will be paid for almost exclusively via loans from Chinese banks.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...ina?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

It's a good read, especially the forecasts by Musk.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Article on Tesla's adventure in building out a plant in China seems unrealistic from a cost perspective:





https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...ina?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

It's a good read, especially the forecasts by Musk.

I would not be surprised if the plant in China is indeed substantially completed and producing vehicles by Chinese New Year next year.

Tesla will have a very hard time selling mass produced EV's in China unless cost can be drastically cut, like 50% . Just too much competition in the China EV market.

The real value in the plant is producing parts and large sub-assemblies at low cost for shipping to the US plant in Fremont CA.