Thoughts on TESLA

[Rianne]

Just when I thought it was over, there it is...Tesla.

 

[ERD50]

.... Paid 40% less for some things by pointing out some facts about sales to the cashier. It didn't qualify for the sale, but I got my 40% off. I've stunned friends and acquaintances by getting 50% off at Pavillions (Vons) supermarket pretty much every time I go. Not on everything, just select things. I only purchase those items I can get reduced. ....

Not sure what this has to do with Tesla? Still don't know what point you were trying to make.

Were you able to get TSLA at 50% off retail? Now that might be something.

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

Well, he mentioned monthly gas bills of $9~$11. But these all seem low. Maybe CA is different, but our basic connection charges with zero usage are close to that. My lowest bills in summer, water heat (new efficient water heater with damper control) and cooking only, 2 people who are conservative with resources, still come out above $20/month.

I have negative connection charges after factoring in my cashback (imagine my surprise when I got that offer). Variable cost is $6 in electricity, $6 in gas a month. I use roughly <300 kWh a year and <100 m3.

This is in Europe, not really known for low utility bills.

 

[ncbill]

Well, he mentioned monthly gas bills of $9~$11. But these all seem low. Maybe CA is different, but our basic connection charges with zero usage are close to that. My lowest bills in summer, water heat (new efficient water heater with damper control) and cooking only, 2 people who are conservative with resources, still come out above $20/month.
-ERD50

Our family of 4 paid only $6-$7/month for the natural gas used to heat water.

Until the gas company added a $10/month facility charge.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have negative connection charges after factoring in my cashback (imagine my surprise when I got that offer). Variable cost is $6 in electricity, $6 in gas a month. I use roughly <300 kWh a year and <100 m3.

This is in Europe, not really known for low utility bills.

Less than 1 kWh/day! Wow! How is that possible?

I still have not wired up my solar array/battery storage to the home electric panel, and still burning up the collected power using an extension cord to run two electric heaters inside the home. Just check the meters, and I obtained 18 kWh today. About 3/5 of that is burned off, and the remaining 2/5 goes into the battery to run one 400W electric heater through the night.

How does 18 kWh compare to what I use?

I have two refrigerators. The main one which we open a lot during the day draws 4.8 kWh/day. The auxiliary one in the utility room draws 1.6kWh/day.

Our total daily consumption varies from a minimum of 16 kWh/day to a max of 100 kWh/day. Total annual consumption is 16,300 kWh/year, or 45 kWh/day average.

By the way, the 18 kWh I collect today, if used to charge an EV, would be good for 54 miles of driving.

That power is from 20 solar panels with the nameplate rating of 5.5 kW maximum. Will see how much better it will get, come the summer months when the sun is higher, and the day is longer.

 

[bobandsherry]

Last natural gas bill was 13.47. It does rise a couple bucks in the winter due to the water heater.

Nope, no solar. Bill says .72 basic charge, delivery charge 11.10, 25.92 generation charge, .07 state tax. .12 per kWh.

You should write a book, if my math is correct that's 216 kWh used. If just two "fill ups" for your EV that's 150 kWh, that's only about 500 miles a month. But that leaves only 66 kWh for everything else in your house. So def you should write a book on how to live on such little electricity.

But back to Tesla, with that little use not sure why you went for EV except just for the fun of it as the premium paid for the Tesla wouldn't be offset by the savings in fuel. And if I recall you have two Tesla's, so really doesn't seem to make financial sense - you being a "Tightwad" Or maybe I'm all confused.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Just when I thought it was over, there it is...Tesla.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

You should write a book, if my math is correct that's 216 kWh used. If just two "fill ups" for your EV that's 150 kWh, that's only about 500 miles a month. But that leaves only 66 kWh for everything else in your house. So def you should write a book on how to live on such little electricity.

But back to Tesla, with that little use not sure why you went for EV except just for the fun of it as the premium paid for the Tesla wouldn't be offset by the savings in fuel. And if I recall you have two Tesla's, so really doesn't seem to make financial sense - you being a "Tightwad" Or maybe I'm all confused.

If I wanted to save every last dollar, I would have kept my Prius, or sold it and got a Leaf. A Leaf would have met my driving needs. Saving every last dollar was not my decision, as you pointed out.

My #1 goal was car safety. Tesla is #1. California drivers are pitiful. I have a nice big battery to insulate me from impact.

The fact that I could afford it, the tax credits, the silent ride, outstanding sound system, all these were factors. We are all going to die someday, we should enjoy everything we can in life. I enjoy my cars. Robbie likes beef and crab. Breedlove likes loud engines. Everybody's different.

So if your main goal is how much is in your bank account, don't purchase a Tesla. I am 56. I'm doing anything I want from now til death that I can enjoy.

And I have been told 10 or 20 times about writing a book. The car purchases contradict my normal miserly ways. But I stopped working at 45 thanks to them, I wouldn't have been able to otherwise.

 

[oneill225]

View from Mercedes

"We are changing the car more in the next 10 years than we ever have before"

If you have any doubts that EVs and autonomous are the near and far future of autos, here is another article that reinforces where the dollars will be going.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/mercedes-benz-designer-gorden-wagener-interview-on-tech/

 

[ERD50]

....
The fact that I could afford it, the tax credits, the silent ride, outstanding sound system, all these were factors. We are all going to die someday, we should enjoy everything we can in life. I enjoy my cars. Robbie likes beef and crab. Breedlove likes loud engines. Everybody's different. ....

And that's fine, not everyone is buying based on economic decisions alone. But I'm still confused about what sort of point you were trying to make with your electric bills.

Regardless, as Tesla attempts to branch out to a larger audience (which is very relevant to Tesla's future), economics and fuel savings will become a larger issue for many. Here's what Musk said in 2015:

Elon Musk @elonmusk

We debated this, but there really is $10k gas saved by most owners over 5 yrs (avg ownership period). Since it's true, we are sticking w it. -- Apr 10, 2015

Hmmmm. Keeping it simple, lets say charging is free. Gas prices at the time were ~ $2.40. Let's round up to $3.00. That's 667 gallons a year. For the average annual 12,000 mile driver, the car would have to get less than 18 mpg, even with those generous assumptions.

So for someone looking at the economics, and adding in the cost of charging (new owners don't get much/any free charging, right?), and the cost of installing a charger at home, versus gas prices on an affordable high mpg car, they are not going to find much savings.

That's does not sound helpful for Tesla, especially after Musk sets the bar so high...

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

"We are changing the car more in the next 10 years than we ever have before"

If you have any doubts that EVs and autonomous are the near and far future of autos, here is another article that reinforces where the dollars will be going.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/mercedes-benz-designer-gorden-wagener-interview-on-tech/

It there anyone here doubting that EVs and autonomous driving have a future? I'm not sure what the point is of your posts like this.

Any debate is about how near and how much. And will Tesla stay competitive as that market grows. The vagueness of your statement makes it pretty much meaningless in the context of this thread.

Would you invest in a company/industry just based on them saying they are putting $ into research? Here's an example, and oddly, from a company making [-]buggy whips[/-] vacuum tubes:

https://www.jj-electronic.com/en/company-profile

We offer more than 35 preamp, power and rectifier tubes. All tubes were developed by our in-house research and engineering teams.

Even more oddly, there is a connection to Tesla (not TSLA though)!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JJ_Electronic

... Before 1989, TESLA was the main Czechoslovak producer of electron tubes. While TESLA vacuum tubes were exported all over the world, and were known for their quality, the company did not survive the change of economic system after 1989 in combination with the downturn in the vacuum tube market. JJ Electronic was founded in 1993, using the old TESLA machines for the manufacture of vacuum tubes. Eventually, JJ Electronic started to produce their own line of vacuum tubes and electrolytic capacitors, being mainly targeted at high-end audiophile and guitar amplifier applications.

So the vacuum tube maker TESLA failed, and another company bought their production equipment and seem to be making money in a niche market. Hmmm, will that happen to TSLA? I don't know, but I would not rule it out.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Tesla Leads

More evidence that the switch from traditional ICE vehicles to EV is harder than traditional auto makers may have believed.

This industry will be driven by battery tech and cost. Tesla is the company leading now and into the foreseeable future.

https://insideevs.com/porsche-audi-tesla-model-3-teardown/

 

[Chuckanut]

Note: I offer the article below for your consideration since the author spends a deal of it comparing the German auto industry's attempts to build EVs to what Tesla is doing.

Thousands of people who drive a German car today are waiting impatiently for their first American car (the first American car they’ve ever bought in their life). It is both a first American car and a first electric car for most of them, and both of those qualities separately have previously been very convincing reasons to make sure you do not order. Today, everything is different, the world has changed.

Here's one guy's take on how the Germans are approaching the EV. Basically, he seems to be saying 'to little, to late'. And, that the German auto industry (60% of Germany's economic growth according to the author) may be at risk. You be the judge.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10/to-all-german-automakers-believe-me-you-are-still-sleeping/

This is very important to comprehend, because to build an electric vehicle, if you have ICE tools, ICE experience, and ICE people, it is very hard. It is harder than most believe because it looks so similar from the outside — despite so much difference inside. We have seen the results from German automakers building EVs. Some of them are actually ICE vehicles with a battery and electric powertrain instead. Others are quite ugly. Some are nice to look at but fall behind in all specifications Tesla has proven possible today.

Besides this really sad information, all of those incumbent automakers try to influence the public opinion with what they call “electrified vehicles,” which are in fact cars with combustion engines and carbon emissions. They are able to drive a few miles on electricity and then drive on gas or diesel.

The comparison of Tesla with BMW is interesting, IMHO. Who knows what will happen? Time will tell.

BMW announced the i4 and i7, with promising ranges and price tags, for the years 2021 and 2022, which is about 3–4 years from now if everything happens as planned. BMW has just one full but old electric vehicle available for sale today, the i3, which had about 35,000 sales in 2018 (shrinking year over year).

 

[bobandsherry]

"We are changing the car more in the next 10 years than we ever have before"



If you have any doubts that EVs and autonomous are the near and far future of autos, here is another article that reinforces where the dollars will be going.



https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/mercedes-benz-designer-gorden-wagener-interview-on-tech/

Perhaps I'm under the wrong impression, but I thought this thread was to be centered on Tesla as an investment opportunity and not on EV's and the future there of.

 

[ERD50]

More evidence that the switch from traditional ICE vehicles to EV is harder than traditional auto makers may have believed.

This industry will be driven by battery tech and cost. Tesla is the company leading now and into the foreseeable future.

https://insideevs.com/porsche-audi-tesla-model-3-teardown/

So while that article appears positive regarding Tesla versus Audi & Mercedes, I'm not sure there is much there to push Tesla stock price.

The Audi/Merc cars they are talking about are ~ $80,000 USD, right? Not really where Tesla is looking anymore in terms of future growth.

-ERD50

 

[ls99]

Back to Tesla:
"The company reportedly cut 150 people from a team of about 230. The team worked at a facility in Las Vegas and was tasked with getting cars from the factory and into the hands of customers in the U.S. and Canada. More than 3,000 Tesla employees lost their jobs in January — the company’s second mass layoff in less than a year.
“There are not enough deliveries,” one of the laid-off employees told Reuters. “You don’t need a team because there are not that many cars coming through.”

see article: Silicon Valley Buisenss Journal
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...h-america-delivery-team-job-cuts-model-3.html.

 

[oneill225]

So while that article appears positive regarding Tesla versus Audi & Mercedes, I'm not sure there is much there to push Tesla stock price.
The Audi/Merc cars they are talking about are ~ $80,000 USD, right? Not really where Tesla is looking anymore in terms of future growth.-ERD50

I think it is safe to assume that Tesla is the company to beat at all levels in the EV market. This article helps to confirm that even the best car manufacturers (in terms of innovation and technology) are struggling to build a better car than Tesla has on the market now. If Mercedes and Audi are getting a little panicked, then Ford, Chevy, et al, must be crapping their pants.

The point is, that anyone looking to be an early investor in this emerging global industry should be putting their money into TSLA stock. This is going to be similar to the computer industry back in the 80s and 90s. Those who invested early in Microsoft and Apple made a ton of money. With risk comes reward.

 

[ERD50]

I think it is safe to assume that Tesla is the company to beat at all levels in the EV market. This article helps to confirm that even the best car manufacturers (in terms of innovation and technology) are struggling to build a better car than Tesla has on the market now. If Mercedes and Audi are getting a little panicked, then Ford, Chevy, et al, must be crapping their pants. ...

Maybe, maybe not. We will see.

... The point is, that anyone looking to be an early investor in this emerging global industry should be putting their money into TSLA stock. This is going to be similar to the computer industry back in the 80s and 90s. Those who invested early in Microsoft and Apple made a ton of money. With risk comes reward.

I'm not sure your point is valid. Maybe Tesla will be like one of these ~ 100 companies (I clipped the list to not take up so much space and avoid copyright issues):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...cturers#Companies_that_have_ceased_production

Companies that have ceased production

Acorn Computers
Alliant Computer Systems - Ceased operations in 1992.
Altos Computer Systems - acquired by Acer in 1990.
Amdahl Corporation - A wholly owned subsidiary of Fujitsu since 1997.
Amstrad
Apollo Computer - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 1989.
Apricot Computers - ceased operations in 1999.
Ardent Computer - Merged with Stellar Computer to form Stardent in 1989.
AST Computers, LLC - Exited the computer market in 2001.
Atari Corporation
Bell & Howell
Burroughs - Merged with Sperry to form Unisys in 1986.
Celerity Computing - Acquired by Floating Point Systems in 1988.
Commodore International - declared bankruptcy in 1994.
Compaq - Acquired by Hewlett-Packard in 2002. Defunct as a subsidiary as of 2013.
CompuAdd - filed for bankruptcy in 1993.
Computer Automation
Control Data Corporation (CDC) - Shrank as units were spun off from 1988 to 1992; remainder is now Ceridian.
Convergent Technologies
Convex Computer - purchased by The Hewlett-Packard Company in 1995
Corona Data Systems - among the original "IBM PC Compatible" clone makers
Cromemco
Data General - was one of the first minicomputer firms from the late 1960s, purchased by EMC in 1999 for its innovative RAID array storage.
Digital Equipment Corporation - Acquired by Compaq in 1998.
Durango Systems Corporation merged with Molecular Systems in 1982 which went bankrupt in 1984


// clipping E~S//

Tandon Corporation
Tandy Corporation - Previous parent company of RadioShack, produced the TRS-80 and Tandy 1000 and 2000 IBM PC compatible computers. Sold their computer division to AST Computers in the early 1990s.
Tiny Computers - merged into TIME Computers.
Texas Instruments
TriGem Computer - Declared bankrupt in 2012
Averatec - Averatec subsidiary goes out of business in 2012.
Tulip Computers - changed its name to Nedfield NV in 2008, pronounced bankrupt on 3 September 2009.
Vigor Gaming (USA) - Disappeared in March 2010
VoodooPC
VTech
Wang Laboratories - acquired by Getronics in 1999.
Wipro - Ceased PC manufacturing.
Xerox - Exited the computer business.
Zenith Data Systems - Merged With Packard Bell and NEC in 1996
Zeos - merged into MPC Corporation in 1996, which in turn filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2008.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Back to Tesla:
"The company reportedly cut 150 people from a team of about 230. The team worked at a facility in Las Vegas and was tasked with getting cars from the factory and into the hands of customers in the U.S. and Canada. More than 3,000 Tesla employees lost their jobs in January.

Is it your belief that Tesla is about to collapse? Do you think demand for electric cars has been satisfied? What do you take from the reduction of 150 people from a company that employs many thousands?

At the end of the day, these are just routine business decisions. Workers and assets are appropriated, as needed and projected. Reading more into it than that is not supported by the production rates. Tesla is still cranking out thousands of cars every week and shipping them around the world.

Now, if Tesla cannot sell the cars they are making, I will reevaluate my position.

 

[ERD50]

...

Now, if Tesla cannot sell the cars they are making, I will reevaluate my position.

If/when that news comes out, it may very well be too late to "reevaluate" your position - at least profitably.

Do you think demand for electric cars has been satisfied?

The signs are that US demand for $40k+ Model 3s has dropped. Do you agree?

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

I'm not sure your point is valid. Maybe Tesla will be like one of these ~ 100 companies (I clipped the list to not take up so much space and avoid copyright issues):-ERD50

At some point, the clouds begin to clear and it is apparent who is winning the game. It happened with Microsoft and it is happening now with Tesla.

The safe bet is to just wait and buy broad index funds. I have no problem if that is where you are at. If you want bigger returns, however, then it is necessary to up the risk factor a little by putting some of your money to work in a company that has a bright future. Tesla is one of those companies.

 

[oneill225]

The signs are that US demand for $40k+ Model 3s has dropped. Do you agree?-ERD50

I, honestly, do not know. The wait lists have gone down as the early adopters have been satisfied, but I think Tesla benefits hugely from word of mouth sales. In other words, every happy Tesla customer gets a friend or relative to buy one, as well. This kind of "demand" is not reflected as easily as a wait list. Keep in mind that Tesla does not really advertise their products.

Of course, there is a limited market for any product at any price point. I doubt that Tesla's market for the Model 3 has reached that point, yet. $40,000 is not outrageous for a car, anymore.

Sedans are the least popular segment in the auto industry, right now. The bigger question may be whether the market for sedans has any future. Tesla needs to produce an affordable cross-over like the Model Y to meet the largest future demand. I see no reason to doubt that it will happen.

 

[ls99]

Is it your belief that Tesla is about to collapse? .......

No. But the company or their retail products are not worthy of a dime of my money, especially not as an investment.


I might buy a junked tesla just to play and or experiment with. Though it would have to be cheaper than a used golf cart, to run around in my camp with.
Providing it has a three phase motors. Based on my past Heavy and Light Railroad and electronics experience, I would junk all of their electronics and use a home brew three phase driver. Based on Munro's teardown evaluation, the only really good thing in the cars is the motors. The rest is overpriced video games and shoddy metalwork.

 

[oneill225]

No. But the company or their retail products are not worthy of a dime of my money, especially not as an investment.
I might buy a junked tesla just to play and or experiment with. Though it would have to be cheaper than a used golf cart, to run around in my camp with.
Providing it has a three phase motors. Based on my past Heavy and Light Railroad and electronics experience, I would junk all of their electronics and use a home brew three phase driver. Based on Munro's teardown evaluation, the only really good thing in the cars is the motors. The rest is overpriced video games and shoddy metalwork.

High standards. I like it.

Stick with the index funds. It is safer there.

 

[ERD50]

At some point, the clouds begin to clear and it is apparent who is winning the game. ....

By that time, it's usually too late for an investor to make outsize profits. If it is clear to everyone, the stock has already been bought up.

... It happened with Microsoft and it is happening now with Tesla. ....

Maybe. I don't see much evidence of it. Lotsa headwinds for Tesla.

... The safe bet is to just wait and buy broad index funds. I have no problem if that is where you are at. If you want bigger returns, however, then it is necessary to up the risk factor a little by putting some of your money to work in a company that has a bright future. ...

Agreed. But predicting the future is a tough game. You are likely to pick a company with a dim future.

... putting some of your money to work in a company that has a bright future. Tesla is one of those companies.

Just keep telling yourself that, and ignore any negative, critical views. We'll see how that works out for you.

I, honestly, do not know. The wait lists have gone down as the early adopters have been satisfied, but I think Tesla benefits hugely from word of mouth sales. In other words, every happy Tesla customer gets a friend or relative to buy one, as well. This kind of "demand" is not reflected as easily as a wait list. ...

I'd agree that word of mouth has worked well for them in the past, But Tesla has dropped the price twice now - is it still working? Apparently not well enough.

... Sedans are the least popular segment in the auto industry, right now. The bigger question may be whether the market for sedans has any future. Tesla needs to produce an affordable cross-over like the Model Y to meet the largest future demand. I see no reason to doubt that it will happen.

So if Tesla is such a visionary company, why didn't they foresee this, and design the Model 3 as an SUV/Crossover? Model X was not a big seller. Model Y might be out in volume in 2020 ( or is that just Musk optimism?)? They really missed the boat. That would not give me confidence if I were an investor.

-ERD50