Thoughts on TESLA

[ERD50]

Starting to look at EV infrastructure including charging while you drive. Does this lead to man-sized slot car racing? One can only hope!


“Additions could include conventional charging stations, “super-charger” stations that work more quickly and “smart-powered lanes” that charge electric vehicles as they drive along the road. The smart-powered lanes would have charging technology placed under the pavement, which would then transfer power to a receiver on the bottom of electric vehicles.“

https://wgntv.com/2018/09/29/i-294-could-soon-include-smart-powered-lanes-to-charge-electric-cars/

Pipe dream, IMO. Where are the standards for non-contact (charge coils in the pavement, charge as you drive)? Can a car fast-charge while driving? That's a LOT of energy to transfer, and there will be losses. Losses mean heat (and/or RF energy being emitted! Think of the children!).

How will this be paid for (IL is beyond broke)? And hopefully the EV owners pay for it - I don't ask EV owners to pay for gas stations. And they already get away w/o paying road taxes through gas taxes.

Even at fast charge rates, if possible, that's ~ 20 minutes for a charge. At 60 mph, that's 20 miles of road that would need this capability (and the article mentions this project would cover only 22 miles).

The smart-powered lanes would have charging technology placed under the pavement, which would then transfer power to a receiver on the bottom of electric vehicles.

“This could really be a game changer and take the concern about range off the table, at least for those who use the Tollway system,” he said.

And happen to drive on that specific 20 mile stretch, and don't need a charge before they get there, and have that capability in their EV, and, and, and....

Again, pipe dream. With a side order of unicorn sprinkles.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Further to the wireless charging idea - they are talking about tens of kilowatts of high frequency energy, for 20 minutes at a time.

People have freaked out over less than a watt from cell phones, and that same energy from a 'smart meter', that broadcast only for seconds each hour.

No way the public is going to want to be around these power levels. I'm not frightened by the low level stuff, but just having that much power along miles of roadways is exposing people to potential dangers - could an accident expose that raw power and electrocute someone? How can you assure it is waterproof under any and all conditions for decades and miles?

And what is the efficiency? Losses just mean more electricity has to be generated, and then we can circle back to that whole argument of good hybrid versus grid marginal generation.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Yes, I think it will take more than 5 or 10 years for all electric to become price competitive with ICE vehicles...
BTW, where is the graph that shows that car ownership is going to go down because of ride share or whatever will happen with self driving cars making ownership a thing of the past?

Agree to disagree on the cost of EVs not dropping to affordable for the masses within 10 years.

Agree to agree with your point on car ownership declining. This is an ongoing trend with options like Uber. The next big change will be autonomous "taxis" that come to you with no driver at all.

 

[oneill225]

A good article on some Tesla competition; the Audi E-Tron.

This looks like it will compete with the Model X sometime in 2019. Bigger take-away for Tesla investors is the statement that they won't have any other electric cars ready for market until 2021.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/audi-of-americas-filip-brabec-talks-e-tron-future-electric-cars/

 

[Texas Proud]

Agree to disagree on the cost of EVs not dropping to affordable for the masses within 10 years.

Agree to agree with your point on car ownership declining. This is an ongoing trend with options like Uber. The next big change will be autonomous "taxis" that come to you with no driver at all.

That is the beauty of life... we can both have an opinion and both be right for now ... only time will tell who was actually right...

 

[oneill225]

That is the beauty of life... we can both have an opinion and both be right for now ... only time will tell who was actually right...

Amen. Talk to you in 10 years.

 

[kcowan]

Ouch, that’s not small sum.

and as rumoured, not to juice the stock price but to impress his girlfriend!

 

[NW-Bound]

Don't you realize there are scores of millions of people driving 10 year old Camrys and Hondas because they make less than $25k per year and can't afford to buy a $30 - $50k electric car? Many of these people work on their own cars and have families to feed. Millions live in apartments with no provision to charge an electric car, let alone afford one. None of this is going to change overnight, especially when our nation is losing its middle class rapidly. And the middle class and up are the ones buying Teslas.

Let them eat cake.

Oops. Last time someone purportedly said that, heads rolled.

When an electric car is under $20K and the used market is overflowing with $5K used ones, and power is as available as gasoline, then it may make sense.

For that to happen, we need to see parts for EVs being readily available for the unkempt masses to buy at O'Reilly and AutoZone to fix their own cars under tree shades. Not when a door lock mechanism replacement costs $1K.

 

[kcowan]

Do you realize that the chart is a 25 year projection? Do you really think it will take more than 5 or 10 years before electric cars will be price competitive with the future version of a Camry?

I cited an article that refers to multiple analysts having to revise their 2016 predictions regarding EV growth. Most had to triple their estimates from just a couple of years ago. It will happen faster than that chart.

Also note that the forecast was made in 2015 so actuals are no longer part of the forecast! Also this chart says that ICE vehicles will go from 82 million to 58 million in 2040. That surprises me as high. It also indicate some of the limiting factors are being included in the EV forecast.

I hope they did not include SEA in their forecast:

China likely will handle their own EV needs

 

[nash031]

Anyone else find it amusing that “Mr. Tightwad” owns a $100K+ SUV and another $50K+ car? I’m sure well below his means, just made me smile.

 

[jazz4cash]

Yeah, but not compare to what the British cave divers want to sue him for, $75k. That’s peanuts.

Yep. There is plenty of additional exposure to criminal and civil litigation.

 

[beowulf]

I keep cars until the wheels fall off. 13-17 years is the norm. And then I sell them for whatever I can get - or, if they have safety issues, I donate them for scrap. I won't buy a car that will almost certainly need expensive parts - engine, transmission, huge battery, etc. in less than 10 years. Even the batteries in hybrids are only good for 7 years and then a big expense. Only car that I bought new and sold in 10 years or less was my 72 Vega hatchback. It was literally rusting away and burning a quart of oil in its aluminum block with burnt out plastic valve guides every 40 miles by 10 years and I sold it. Collected my neighbor's used oil in gallon plastic milk containers and filtered it through fine wire mesh and a strong magnet. Plus I did all the maintenance myself after the 15 minute warranty expired.

Current cars are 9 years old and 4 years old. Hopefully many more to go .

 

[oneill225]

I keep cars until the wheels fall off. 13-17 years is the norm. And then I sell them for whatever I can get - or, if they have safety issues, I donate them for scrap. I won't buy a car that will almost certainly need expensive parts - engine, transmission, huge battery, etc. in less than 10 years. Even the batteries in hybrids are only good for 7 years and then a big expense. Only car that I bought new and sold in 10 years or less was my 72 Vega hatchback. It was literally rusting away and burning a quart of oil in its aluminum block with burnt out plastic valve guides every 40 miles by 10 years and I sold it. Collected my neighbor's used oil in gallon plastic milk containers and filtered it through fine wire mesh and a strong magnet. Plus I did all the maintenance myself after the 15 minute warranty expired.

I usually get the itch for a new car around the 7-8 year mark and I have never gone over 90k miles on any of my cars. I have concluded that this is not the norm for many, though.

I am always surprised by the number of people who lease vehicles. Some of whom swap cars every year. As mentioned, the newest trend (more among the young) is to just use an Uber type service and not even own a car. The days of two cars in every garage are fading. To each his own.

 

[braumeister]

I usually get the itch for a new car around the 7-8 year mark and I have never gone over 90k miles on any of my cars. I have concluded that this is not the norm for many, though.

You're hardly alone. I've never gone more than six years between new cars. But that can easily be 150,000 miles for me.

 

[Fedup]

Ah you all big spenders. I buy them brand new but keep mine till it falls apart. Then I give away to charity, last one was sold at auction for $750. I also got to deduct that on my charitable contribution.

 

[ERD50]

Anecdotes!

I see many sources that state the average age of US cars on the road is 11~12 years. Now, they don't provide a median, but if car sales are fairly flat, clearly many cars are quite a bit older than 12 YO, since there are lots of 1,2,3 YO cars in the mix.

So if it takes 10 years for EVs to get down to "common man/woman" pricing, and another 12 years for those to make those sales representative (and not everyong will buy an EV, even at price parity), I think we are a long way off before EVs make up a large % of cars on the road.

I won't predict a date. It's far out enough that maybe other options will arise. And as I've been saying, the next generation hybrids might be more attractive than an EV for many people.

-ERD50

 

[JoeWras]

Anecdotes!

I see many sources that state the average age of US cars on the road is 11~12 years. Now, they don't provide a median, but if car sales are fairly flat, clearly many cars are quite a bit older than 12 YO, since there are lots of 1,2,3 YO cars in the mix.

So if it takes 10 years for EVs to get down to "common man/woman" pricing, and another 12 years for those to make those sales representative (and not everyong will buy an EV, even at price parity), I think we are a long way off before EVs make up a large % of cars on the road.

I won't predict a date. It's far out enough that maybe other options will arise. And as I've been saying, the next generation hybrids might be more attractive than an EV for many people.

-ERD50

The only wildcard to this is if the political winds blow such that huge changes are made to laws. For example, an extreme hike in gas taxes. Or maybe a "Cash for ICE Cars." Etc. That could speed things up a bit.

 

[cyber888]

The stock will go up a little, because now the "will they won't they" is removed. The market loves certainty, and hates unknowns.

Yep. With SEC out of the way, and Musk still holding the CEO position and still a member of the Board, the 'uncertainty' and 'drama' is gone. Investors want stability. There should be short covering tomorrow Monday.

 

[oneill225]

Yep. With SEC out of the way, and Musk still holding the CEO position and still a member of the Board, the 'uncertainty' and 'drama' is gone. Investors want stability. There should be short covering tomorrow Monday.

Tesla is also about to report meeting the Q3 manufacturing projections. I will be buying if I can get in close to the current price.

 

[oneill225]

Anecdotes!
I see many sources that state the average age of US cars on the road is 11~12 years. Now, they don't provide a median, but if car sales are fairly flat, clearly many cars are quite a bit older than 12 YO, since there are lots of 1,2,3 YO cars in the mix.
So if it takes 10 years for EVs to get down to "common man/woman" pricing, and another 12 years for those to make those sales representative (and not everyong will buy an EV, even at price parity), I think we are a long way off before EVs make up a large % of cars on the road.
I won't predict a date. It's far out enough that maybe other options will arise. And as I've been saying, the next generation hybrids might be more attractive than an EV for many people.

Over 17 million autos are sold in just the U.S. every year. Plenty of room to grow over the next 10 years. By the way, the "common" folk should be able to buy one much sooner than 10 years and they will.

I don't understand your predictions for hybrids. They are needed by some in the short-term, but who will want one when range and charging issues go away for full EV?

Overall U.S. Auto Industry Sales Figures – Monthly And Yearly | GCBC

 

[braumeister]

I don't understand your predictions for hybrids. They are needed by some in the short-term, but who will want one when range and charging issues go away for full EV?

Seriously? The day when I can drive a full EV across the country (yes, I do that) and spend no more time charging it than I do filling an ICE with gas is still a long way off.

I'm edging into it with the PHEV I recently bought, but …

 

[oneill225]

Seriously? The day when I can drive a full EV across the country (yes, I do that) and spend no more time charging it than I do filling an ICE with gas is still a long way off.

I'm edging into it with the PHEV I recently bought, but …

As I said, when the range and charging issues go away. Chargers will become more ubiquitous than gas stations and charging times will get faster.

How many miles are driving each day? You can go over 300 miles on a single charge, today. Are you telling me that a 45 minute fast charge/break before your next 300 miles is outrageous?

 

[Chuckanut]

Given some of the new safety improvements in modern cars and my somewhat aging reflexes, I will probably trade in my 2012 in a few years for one with things like front impact warnings, lane change warnings, and all the other stuff that improves safety for me and those around me when I drive. OTOH, I am still doing fine with the old 2012 and the tabs, while high, are still a lot lower than they would be on a new car. Soon I can even drop collision insurance.

 

[Midpack]

How many miles are driving each day? You can go over 300 miles on a single charge, today. Are you telling me that a 45 minute fast charge/break before your next 300 miles is outrageous?

It’s “outrageous” to the estimated 90% of the population who can’t afford a Tesla (well over $35K) and only need 5 minutes for refuel their ICE or hybrid. More affordable EVs don’t get anything like 300 mile range. Many/most Tesla buyers are eco-chics, notably the ones who brag about zero emissions...

 

[braumeister]

How many miles are driving each day? You can go over 300 miles on a single charge, today. Are you telling me that a 45 minute fast charge/break before your next 300 miles is outrageous?

How many miles I drive on an average day is irrelevant. When I make a long trip, which I do a number of times every year, I would definitely resent having to spend that long on a charge. And it wouldn't be 300 miles, either -- much less if that's the range. Even now, you have to plan your fuel stops to be sure you have enough in your tank for what you're doing. And charging stations won't be as ubiquitous as gas stations for a very long time indeed.