JustCurious
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Sep 20, 2006
- Messages
- 1,396
I agree.Yes, "low risk". IMHO.
I agree.Yes, "low risk". IMHO.
We have another thread going like that from earlier in the week, one post from the OP and six pages of us all talking to each other.
Generally perceived as better than talking to ourselves.
Talking to yourself is better than also answering your own questions!
Or arguing with one's self!
When a person talks to him/herself, but neither agreeing nor arguing, what is the talk about?
Debating, pleading, commiserating, begging, imploring, consoling, what?
Threads are often taken off line while the moderators discuss what to do about problematic posts. It keeps problems from getting worse.Not sure where to ask this, but the thread about the wedding and vaccinated guests seems to have disappeared?
Not sure where you're getting those numbers, because the percentage of non-vaccinated population to have gotten COVID19 to-date is a lot higher than 0.2%.
US Cases to-date: 34,342,366
US Population: ~331M
(See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
Of course, "some" of those infections are vaccinated people, but for sake of example, let's assume most all are un-vacc'd.
So, rate of infection is ~10.37%, not .2%.
Now, since Pfizer protects 88% against the Delta variant..
(1 - .88) * 10.37 = 1.24%.
A heck of a lot better than 10.37%, but still quite a bit above "low" risk IMHO.
Threads are often taken off line while the moderators discuss what to do about problematic posts. It keeps problems from getting worse.
Actually, I think you are confusing relative risk and absolute risk. Vaccine efficacy is a measure of relative risk. That is, it tells you how much better you would have fared if you had the vaccine than if you had not. It does NOT tell you your risk of contracting Covid. This can be seen in the vaccine trial data. To wit:
source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577
The absolute risk of catching Covid among the unvaccinated during the trial period of 2 months was 162/21,278 or 0.76% (so a 99.24% chance that you would not catch Covid even if unvaccinated during those two months.) The absolute risk of catching Covid if you were among the vaccinated was 8/21,270 or 0.04% (so a 99.96% chance that you would not catch Covid.) The relative risk reduction (efficacy) is 1-(.04/0.76) = 94.7%.
Even if the Pfizer vaccine were only 88% effective against the Delta variant, that would put your chances of catching Covid at 0.09% (assuming that the Delta variant is as transmissible as the original) NOT 12% .
Here's the math:
162/21,278 people in unvaccinated group catch Covid
vaccine is 88% effective, so
162 x (1 - .88) = 19.4 people in vaccinated group catch Covid
which means your odds of catching Covid (Delta) are 19.4/21270 = 0.09%
My concern is breakthrough infections that turn into Long Covid. This article describes a fully vaccinated nurse who contracted Covid and now has Long Covid.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...cLc5letu-5ojMQ3g2AMHkZVrGBGBPevk0cI4m4vDZjEYc
She belongs to one of the support groups and felt it was important to share her story.