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-   -   I vote to call it a Bear Market! (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-vote-to-call-it-a-bear-market-95345.html)

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 02:39 PM


Originally Posted by OldShooter (Post 2160656)
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
– Warren Buffett

Hopefully, the transfer of money will go from the Nervous Nellies and GetRichQuick crowd to my kids. Not from me!!;D

Chuckanut 12-21-2018 02:49 PM

FWIW, since I have no special or secret knowledge relating to the stock market, I think many investors are a bit freaked out by the interest rate increases. They have to think that the war on savers very low interest rates are normal, the way things should be. OTOH, I remember my father being overjoyed to get a 5.8% mortgage. He considered under 6% mortgages back then to be a deal.

Combine the interest rate increase effect with the trade issues and tariffs that might damage economic growth, and I can see a case for a lower market. But, I don't expect a Bear market because the economy is still strong, interest rates while higher are certainly not historically high, and unemployment is very low. Lower oil prices can't hurt either, unless one lives in an area that depends on high oil prices. Sorry about that Alaska, Texas, and the rest.

At some point people will remember or learn that somewhat higher interest rates for mortgages, t-bills, etc. are normal. And, one way or the other this tariff/trade conflict will end. The only question is when. ???

My 2˘ from a guy who knows no more than you do. Take what you wish and leave the rest.

JoeWras 12-21-2018 02:51 PM

There's something about a trillion. Every time companies near it, or touch it, the market bounces off. Happened in 2000 too, except then the number was $500B. About equivalent to now.

Feels to me that a bear bit my butt.

zaqxsw 12-21-2018 03:00 PM

Hey! Most dividends are going UP! :) In at least half of my portfolio holdings.

No expert here, but my reinvested dividends are buying more stock. Isn't that what counts in the long run?

I know, easy to say being retired, and not needing anything more. It's just numbers, right? I will comfortably sleep and eat tonight and tomorrow...

How can I be hurting???

It's numbers for me. I like W2R's posts.

retired1 12-21-2018 03:05 PM

+1 Already seeing -10% drop in my portfolios

foxfirev5 12-21-2018 03:14 PM

Yep she's a bear. As a retiree living on dividends etc I see no need to overreact, yet. However, past experience indicates that dividends will fall as well. This quarters dividends reflect the past not the future.
Buckle up. It could get bumpy.
Heaven forbid I may have to fly coach next year.

O2Bfree 12-21-2018 03:32 PM

Bear market? Are layoffs coming?? I want to go out with a severance package!

Lsbcal 12-21-2018 03:36 PM

I think the next 12 months are going to be very profitable.

zaqxsw 12-21-2018 03:43 PM

I sure hope it doesn't rebound before the first of the year. I've still got two more years of ROTH conversions to do.

Another positive about all of this, but it is a selfish thought...

easysurfer 12-21-2018 03:49 PM

1 Attachment(s)
What? I ain't afraid of no bear!

Gulp .....

O2Bfree 12-21-2018 04:06 PM

All I want for Christmas is some VTSAX, some VTSAX, some VTSAX...

steelyman 12-21-2018 04:57 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!

Originally Posted by MichaelB (Post 2160786)
How far off the high is something I don’t track. Right now we’re down around 3.5% and I recall us being up around 4.5% earlier this year, so I guesstimate we’re about 8% off this high. Not sure what significance that has, if any.

Stocks outside the US are all down 20% or more (from their high earlier this year). They didn’t run up nearly as much as the US.

It’s just another way of looking at your general trend but in a non-competitive way (vs YTD-type stuff) and not bracketed by specific calendar dates.

I agree about internationals, they’ve been a monkey on the back.

ShokWaveRider 12-21-2018 05:04 PM

Another 900 points to go down on the S&P till I consider getting in... :) Only another ~18 or so more full trading days give or take.

joeea 12-21-2018 05:23 PM

I didn't realize this was something that could be voted on! Is there an electoral vote, or just a popular vote?

Can I get an absentee ballot? To be honest, I'll probably just throw it away, since I don't care at all what you label it.

corn18 12-21-2018 05:28 PM

Yeeeeehah! Ride 'em, cowboy!


NYEXPAT 12-21-2018 05:43 PM


Originally Posted by corn18 (Post 2160900)

Thanks for that, I love a good chart!

redduck 12-21-2018 06:03 PM


Originally Posted by O2Bfree (Post 2160847)
All I want for Christmas is some VTSAX, some VTSAX, some VTSAX...

There just might be a VTSAX after Christmas sale: you know, like 40% off the lowest price on the tag.

Oz investor 12-21-2018 06:03 PM


Originally Posted by zaqxsw (Post 2160803)

No expert here, but my reinvested dividends are buying more stock. Isn't that what counts in the long run?

that philosophy has been working for me so far , but there will be a time in the near future ( 2020 ) when i will need to take some of those dividends ( not all , hopefully ) in cash

good luck

Ed B 12-21-2018 07:14 PM

My personal portfolio has me close to correction territory. I am down 7.12%

But as far as the Markets in general it looks we are less than a week from reached to -20% threshold.

-1 as of today, but a week/month/quarter from now my vote may change.

Siestatime 12-21-2018 10:10 PM


Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 2160420)
-1. Not yet.

The S&P high was 2940.91. It closed today at 2467.42. That's -16.1% down. Only 4 more percents to go. It may make it there before New Year. Plenty of time for us to celebrate NY and start 2019 in the pits. Why rush it?

But, but, but it increases my WR. :mad:

Agree. Not yet. It will get worse - and the faster, the better. It’s long overdue. Let’s hope for a quick rebound. Happy New Year!

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