Worst December since Great Depression

[gcgang]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/wor...-the-stock-market-since-great-depression.html

Dow and S&P only down about 8%, hard to believe it's one of the worst.

But at this point, I'd settle for a lump of coal for Christmas.

Humbug!

 

[marko]

Well, it's an eye-grabbing--and true--headline on the part of CNBC but the chart shows this Dec is down 7.6% vs 17% in 1931. A big difference IMO.

I don't have the numbers for December 2008 and I was surprised that it didn't make the chart.

 

[Maenad]

It's possible that by the time December rolled around in 2008 that a lot of the damage had already been done.

Also, it was the month after the presidential election here in the US - sometimes the markets here idle at that point while trying to determine what the new person in the Oval Office is going to do.

 

[braumeister]

On the other hand,

Over the past 100 years, December has never produced the worst monthly return of the calendar year.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/s-p-500-index-over-the-past-100-years-december-has-never-been-the-worst-calendar-month-of-the-year

 

[marko]

I've just written off this year as one of the crazy ones and hoping for a better one ahead. 2011 and 2015 were dogs as well.

 

[HF63]

2019 might be another dog year if the China problem continues.


I do not see a quick resolution to this problem.

 

[flintnational]

Alternate headline - In Gift to Investors, Stocks go on Best December Monthly Sale Since Great Depression

 

[Andre1969]

December 2008 was actually a rebound month, so while 2008 as a whole was a horrible year, December itself wasn't. Most of the losses, for me at least, came in September, October, and November, with the bottom hitting around Thanksgiving. By December 31, I was actually up about 20% from that bottom.

That upward trend continued into early 2009, to where I was up around 31% from that Thanksgiving bottom, but then it took another sharp turn for the worse, and the "official" bottom hit on March 9, 2009.

 

[candrew]

Based on what my parents told me of their experiences living through The Great Depression, so far this December is much better for us than any they had to survive was for them.

 

[HarveyS]

The month isn't over yet.

 

[COcheesehead]

I saw a chart the other day that showed in most, not all, bad Decembers lead to worse Januarys. The good news is about a year later, most, not all, markets are positive again.

 

[MichaelB]

For all we know markets may fall substantially from here, but for now, we are close to all time highs in the US. The only way to see current equity market levels as anything other than "really good" is to pick one specific time frame and then compare it without context.



https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/spx-vs-pundits-2/
.

 

[marko]

Alternate headline - In Gift to Investors, Stocks go on Best December Monthly Sale Since Great Depression

+1

 

[joeea]

We are looking at a lost year here.

Haven't had one in a while?

 

[Dtail]

On a related note, is the bull market considered to be ended only if the SP 500 goes down 20% from the most recent high?

 

[mamadogmamacat]

Up for the moment.

They buying the bargains (most likely)

and/or has Santa showed up after all?

 

[HadEnuff]

I will neither win big, nor lose big on market swings, because my equities AA is only 27%. However, if the market continues to slide, to a point maybe 25-30% from the highs, I will likely up my equities AA, and maybe "win" a little.

Time will tell.

 

[kgtest]

We are looking at a lost year here.

Haven't had one in a while?

Better than a lost TWO years! I still think we can end up above water beating inflation.

 

[USGrant1962]

We are looking at a lost year here.

Haven't had one in a while?

2015. Wouldn't call that "a while".

 

[gstillson]

Better than a lost TWO years! I still think we can end up above water beating inflation.

If inflation is negative

 

[flintnational]

For all we know markets may fall substantially from here, but for now, we are close to all time highs in the US. The only way to see current equity market levels as anything other than "really good" is to pick one specific time frame and then compare it without context.



https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/spx-vs-pundits-2/
.

Reviewing the chart you provided, I noticed a name that rang a bell, Jeff Gundlach. On 7/30/16 he said "Sell everything". I remembered this article from CNBC yesterday. "Jeffrey Gundlach says passive investing has reached a 'mania' – investors should avoid index funds"

 

[dtbach]

Reviewing the chart you provided, I noticed a name that rang a bell, Jeff Gundlach. On 7/30/16 he said "Sell everything". I remembered this article from CNBC yesterday. "Jeffrey Gundlach says passive investing has reached a 'mania' – investors should avoid index funds"

Yeah, he's a real prophet. Just keep repeating it until you get a result you want. I think the markets just wanted an excuse to keep selling.

 

[joeea]

2015. Wouldn't call that "a while".

That depends on how you measure a "lost year". For me, that would be an overall market return that is negative for the year. On that basis, the market returned about 1.4% in 2015 and was last negative in 2008.

Apparently you are only considering the Dow Jones or S&P 500?

 

[joeea]

Better than a lost TWO years!

Right. And better than a lost THREE, FOUR, or FIVE years, too!

I still think we can end up above water beating inflation.

If by "we" you mean the overall stock market, that seems rather unlikely.
If by "we" you mean "you", then congratulations.

 

[jjflyman]

Predictions (from the "experts") are for the overall markets to drop another 20% in 2019