Coronavirus - Health and preparedness aspects - II

[Sojourner]

@Sojourner, the WHO reporting indicates the greatest source of transmission is familiar. People are infected from family members. This included health workers. Still too early to draw conclusions from that, but if it comtinues, it means close contact, not infected surfaces, are the main driver.

Right... "close contact, not [so much] infected surfaces" makes sense to me, given everything I've heard. Otherwise, I think we'd be looking at something that is so easily spread that it would be raging through the global population like wildfire. I mean, just the surface transmission in airports and airplanes alone would be enough to infect millions of people per week if exposed surfaces were a significant danger. I believe the director of WHO made a statement recently to the effect of "COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza", so this could imply that even closer, more prolonged direct contact with an infected person is needed than with regular, seasonal flu. One can only hope.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Who really knows?

I think health officials around the world are walking a fine line between scaring people enough so that they take some precaution to slow down the spread of the virus, but not scaring them enough that they run berserk and stock up TP, water, guns and ammo.

They are trying to tell us that it is serious, but not THAT serious, whatever that means.

 

[Nemo2]

but not scaring them enough that they run berserk and stock up TP, water, guns and ammo.

They are trying to tell us that it is serious, but not THAT serious, whatever that means.

Maybe just water and ammo but no guns or TP? Compromise, compromise.

 

[GenXguy]

So, of the 62 closed cases, 28 have deceased. I'm not liking that ratio!

Update on South Korea. It's still very concerning looking at deaths vs. recoveries. But it's still too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions. We'll have to see how the other 6400+ cases turn out since they are still active. It can take weeks for COVID-19 to progress and result in death.

 

[tmm99]

It’s been only a week since the infection rate in South Korea exploded. Only time will tell where the mortality rate will end up at the end.

 

[MichaelB]

^^^ Who really knows?

I think health officials around the world are walking a fine line between scaring people enough so that they take some precaution to slow down the spread of the virus, but not scaring them enough that they run berserk and stock up TP, water, guns and ammo.

They are trying to tell us that it is serious, but not THAT serious, whatever that means.

Actually, I think they’re trying to give us specific information on two different aspects. One is transmission, the other mortality and serious illness. We then try to lump that together to derive one level of risk, which can’t be done - at least yet. For now we still need to look at those two factors independently.

 

[TromboneAl]

I think health officials around the world are walking a fine line between scaring people enough so that they take some precaution to slow down the spread of the virus, but not scaring them enough that they run berserk

I agree. That's exactly what they're doing.

 

[ziggy29]

I think health officials around the world are walking a fine line between scaring people enough so that they take some precaution to slow down the spread of the virus, but not scaring them enough that they run berserk and stock up TP, water, guns and ammo.

That's what it seems to me, and that seems to be the prudent thing to do, though it's hard to walk that tightrope. You want people to take it very seriously without panicking. But that is very hard to accomplish given human nature.

 

[frayne]

Social Distancing

aka, avoiding people, great advice.

 

[Janet H]

Apologies if this has been posted already but it's an interesting tracker from Johns Hopkins https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdash...iEzqK5Iv-4k#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

and today funny-ish meme to lighten the mood...

 

[Philliefan33]

A few days ago in this thread I asked "what would be your trigger to stay at home / self quarantine", and stated that my trigger point would be if the local school district closed because of COVID-19.

That was put to the test this morning, when I woke to the news that five of the district's 23 schools were closed today due to "an abundance of caution". Someone was at a party with a person from another state that has been confirmed to have COVID-19. That someone has somehow had contact with the five schools. The schools are closed for deep cleaning, with a decision coming this weekend regarding re-opening.

Did I stay home? Was my trigger point reached? Nope. DH and I volunteer on Fridays with AARP TaxAide, so we went. All of the volunteers showed up, but ten of our scheduled 45 appointments were no-shows. That's a little higher than normal rate of no-shows, so I believe that some people stayed home due to the COVID-19 news.

No one shook hands. We had hand sanitizer on the counter at both ends of the room, and it was liberally used. I made a point of going to the restroom to wash my hands after each client. Time will tell if any of this was enough / too much.

 

[JoeWras]

Sad article that describes the days leading up to the Kirkland (Seattle/Washington) outbreak of the coronavirus.

https://kuow.org/stories/the-days-leading-up-to-the-outbreak-at-life-care-center-in-kirkland

Really all this says to me is it isn't like the movies. In all the movies I've seen about outbreaks, CDC knows about it before anyone else and they are all super heroes.

Turns out in real life it may take a while for CDC to get in the loop and they are human.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Really all this says to me is it isn't like the movies. In all the movies I've seen about outbreaks, CDC knows about it before anyone else and they are all super heroes.

Turns out in real life it may take a while for CDC to get in the loop and they are human.

From the article (emphasis mine)

The day before, Thursday, had been especially bad. Five separate calls for respiratory distress or fever. After several calls, the firefighters masked up -- they believed something worrisome was spreading, maybe a bad flu.

I've been tracking the corona virus from (at the latest) late January, more likely from around the Jan 21st holiday.

There is no way as of several weeks ago given the already known information about Wuhan and the cruise ship - no way I would go to any call for respiratory distress or fever w/o suiting/masking up.

For the last few weeks, any health care professional should be assuming (in terms of protection protocol) that the patient is a candidate for the Wu Flu. That they haven't been is astounding.

 

[Brat]

I talked to a neighbor whose grandchild had developed a "bug" but the family didn't have a thermometer. None could be found at Fred Meyer or Walgreens, our local retailers.

Everyone, check your first-aid kit.

 

[brewer12345]

Apologies if this has been posted already but it's an interesting tracker from Johns Hopkins https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdash...iEzqK5Iv-4k#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

and today funny-ish meme to lighten the mood...

View attachment 34033

That cartoon is really, really funny!

 

[TromboneAl]

Just signed up for Amazon Prime Video. No more trips to the library.

 

[ziggy29]

Just signed up for Amazon Prime Video. No more trips to the library.

A year of it is cheaper than one non-preventative trip to the doctor, so why not?

 

[NW-Bound]

Sad article that describes the days leading up to the Kirkland (Seattle/Washington) outbreak of the coronavirus.

https://kuow.org/stories/the-days-leading-up-to-the-outbreak-at-life-care-center-in-kirkland

About 10 deaths in Washington State are from that Kirkland nursing home already. A recent article says 15 residents in the most critical condition have been moved to a hospital.

With the virus hitting the elderly hard, it's like fox in a hen house. I have not found out definitely how many residents are still there. One article says 69 residents, while another article says the nursing home has 190 beds.

The fed is bringing a medical staff of 30 to the nursing home for assistance. It is said that the remaining residents have to be taken care of there, because there are no rooms in nearby hospitals to take them.

Now, imagine 1000's or 10,000's of patients as in Wuhan. With lack of intensive care, it should be clear why the initial fatality rate was so high in Wuhan.

PS. Of 33 firemen and police officers who assisted in moving the early patients to the hospital, 18 have shown symptoms. They were not told of the danger to protect themselves.

 

[fh2000]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/steps-when-sick.html

Per CDC website above, if you are sick, call primary care doctor first and wear a mask there.

Will the local doctor's office be capable of protecting themselves and other patients against coronavirus? If you do not have insurance, do you simply go to any ER? Are they capable of the same protection there?

 

[NW-Bound]

Meanwhile, 21 passengers on the Grand Princess that is being held off the Californian coast have tested positive.

There are more than 3,500 passengers and crew members on that ship. I guess officials now have to figure out what to do with them. I guess they could be brought on shore to be quarantined somewhere. It's not simple to work out the logistics of housing and feeding them. What a mess.

 

[brewer12345]

Meanwhile, 21 passengers on the Grand Princess that is being held off the Californian coast have tested positive.

There are more than 3,500 passengers and crew members on that ship. I guess officials now have to figure out what to do with them. I guess they could be brought on shore to be quarantined somewhere. It's not simple to work out the logistics of housing and feeding them. What a mess.

Want to go on a cruise?

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Observations on a UW Tweet

So, I've been reading various articles in areas with outbreaks. This one caught my attention:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1236017803162873856

To date,
@UWVirology
has performed approximately 400 tests for #COVIDー19. We are seeing a consistent positivity rate of 5-7% among specimens submitted to the lab. We are able to meet all current testing demands with capacity for over 1,000 tests per day.

Two observations:
1) They aren't testing to their capacity - so much for not being able to get tests. (Looks like the test pipeline isn't being filled.) If I were king, I would be filling the testing pipeline as much as possible.
2) 93 to 95% of the test results are negative. I'm guessing here, but I'd bet that the sources of testing is for:
a) People who were somehow associated with someone who had tested positive (i.e. tracing the contact chain)
b) People who show symptoms of something (fever, cough, ...) who complain enough or whose physician/ER pushes for the test.

I wish we had data describing who is being tested (a, b). To get a better idea of spread, we need random testing (I know that isn't reasonable given the 'lack' of testing capability.)

 

[fh2000]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/steps-when-sick.html

Per CDC website above, if you are sick, call primary care doctor first and wear a mask there.

Will the local doctor's office be capable of protecting themselves and other patients against coronavirus? If you do not have insurance, do you simply go to any ER? Are they capable of the same protection there?

https://www.labcorp.com/information-labcorp-about-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
It appears LabCorp can now test for coronavirus after getting doctor's order.
The same question: how will they protect themselves for this highly contagious virus?

 

[audreyh1]

About 10 deaths in Washington State are from that Kirkland nursing home already. A recent article says 15 residents in the most critical condition have been moved to a hospital.

With the virus hitting the elderly hard, it's like fox in a hen house. I have not found out definitely how many residents are still there. One article says 69 residents, while another article says the nursing home has 190 beds.

The fed is bringing a medical staff of 30 to the nursing home for assistance. It is said that the remaining residents have to be taken care of there, because there are no rooms in nearby hospitals to take them.

Now, imagine 1000's or 10,000's of patients as in Wuhan. With lack of intensive care, it should be clear why the initial fatality rate was so high in Wuhan.

PS. Of 33 firemen and police officers who assisted in moving the early patients to the hospital, 18 have shown symptoms. They were not told of the danger to protect themselves.

Yes, this is very worrying, because it indicates that an environment with multiple elderly sick patients is very infectious, and that the time and actions that were required to move an elderly person to the hospital is plenty to infect the first responders.

 

[Sunset]

Yes, this is very worrying, because it indicates that an environment with multiple elderly sick patients is very infectious, and that the time and actions that were required to move an elderly person to the hospital is plenty to infect the first responders.

Since there are 3 airline stewards/stewardess that have tested positive, I can imagine at a nursing home, a single worker just needs to get it and then easily spreads it room to room.

Much like how I suspect so many got infected on the Princess ship in Japan, by the crew going room to room day after day with a lack of contagion experience.