Dire situation in New York State

[Winemaker]

Well I don't want to cause panic but has anybody ran a projection for how bad this is going to get?


Based on my unscientific calculation if the rate of increase doesn't change we are looking at the following numbers 12 days from today.





1,000,000 US cases
25,000 US deaths


This is based on a 22% daily increase in deaths and 19% daily increase in cases.




I sure hope I'm wrong.

The death number will still be far lower than than the normal flu.



The people who ran out and had to clear the shelves of TP, bread, milk, butter, foodstuffs, baby chickens, and seeds, shouldn't complain about how the government was't prepared.

 

[MichaelB]

The death number will still be far lower than than the normal flu.

The mortality rate for flu would also be far lower if people practiced the same habits of social distancing and hand washing. This continuing comparison of COVID with the flu is, at best, misleading. COVId is far more dangerous

 

[NameRedacted]

The death number will still be far lower than than the normal flu.



The people who ran out and had to clear the shelves of TP, bread, milk, butter, foodstuffs, baby chickens, and seeds, shouldn't complain about how the government was't prepared.

Except that is unlikely to be the final number. It'll probably be much, much higher than that. Imagine how much worse it would be if we had done nothing.

 

[Gumby]

Well I don't want to cause panic but has anybody ran a projection for how bad this is going to get?
Based on my unscientific calculation if the rate of increase doesn't change we are looking at the following numbers 12 days from today.

1,000,000 US cases
25,000 US deaths

This is based on a 22% daily increase in deaths and 19% daily increase in cases.

I sure hope I'm wrong.

Let me tell you how I prepared a spreadsheet for my own state of Connecticut, and it may be helpful to frame the best answer to your question.

First, I had to determine whether I should count cases or deaths to determine growth rate. The number of new cases is affected by at least three things: the actual infectiousness of the virus; the efficacy of our countermeasures (social isolation and sanitation/disinfection); and, crucially, the amount of testing that is done. Deaths, on the other hand, I would not expect to be so affected by our testing regimen. At this point, the number of deaths is still low enough that day to day fluctuations can distort the identification of any underlying trend. To combat this, I use a 4 day rolling average.

Then, I had to choose a measure that would detect progress or lack thereof. As you have done, I chose to compare the percentage increase both in new cases compared to cumulative cases and in new deaths compared to cumulative deaths, using a 4 day rolling average for each. I also calculated the doubling time based on the percentage increase.

What the data show, for Connecticut, is that over the past four days the daily increment has decreased from 29% to 21% and doubling time has increased from approximately 2.5 days to 3.4 days. I could simply extrapolate from today's numbers, but I think that would lead to inaccurate results, as I expect that the underlying trend will continue. That is, the percentage of new deaths every day will decrease and the doubling time will increase. Plotted on a logarithmic scale, the curve would be starting to flatten.

ETA: one important caveat is that if the medical system gets overwhelmed and they run out of ventilators, the death rate probably will be distorted upward. Combined with improved testing, eventually the case rate might be a better measure.

 

[karen1972]

In hindsight, I agree it would have improved today's situation if we had shut down all non-essential buying of masks, etc., the minute it became a pandemic. Although, defining "non-essential" would have likely turned into an interesting political debate! For example, would exporting PPEs to countries in need be essential or non-essential? Etc.

Where I do disagree is that PPEs are the #1 issue. My opinion (for whatever that is worth other than just being a discussion point), is that officials not declaring and citizens not taking seriously isolation orders is the #1 culprit.

But time has passed and we can't turn the clock back. The important thing now is determining the best course of action from here.

My PPE comment was about at this second.. I'm hearing medical professionals talking about not going in if they can't get the supplies.

But yes I believe the citizens not taking it seriously, including most of my moms side of the family even today. Luckily my sister gets it and the two of us have convinced my mom to stay put and not interact with any family other than my sister since my brother is one of the still thinks its the flu and he already had a bad cough in December so he already had it and is fine.

 

[NameRedacted]

Let me tell you how I prepared a spreadsheet for my own state of Connecticut, and it may be helpful to frame the best answer to your question.

First, I had to determine whether I should count cases or deaths to determine growth rate. The number of new cases is affected by at least three things: the actual infectiousness of the virus; the efficacy of our countermeasures (social isolation and sanitation/disinfection); and, crucially, the amount of testing that is done. Deaths, on the other hand, I would not expect to be so affected by our testing regimen. At this point, the number of deaths is still low enough that day to day fluctuations can distort the identification of any underlying trend. To combat this, I use a 4 day rolling average.

Then, I had to choose a measure that would detect progress or lack thereof. As you have done, I chose to compare the percentage increase both in new cases compared to cumulative cases and in new deaths compared to cumulative deaths, using a 4 day rolling average for each. I also calculated the doubling time based on the percentage increase.

What the data show, for Connecticut, is that over the past four days the daily increment has decreased from 29% to 21% and doubling time has increased from approximately 2.5 days to 3.4 days. I could simply extrapolate from today's numbers, but I think that would lead to inaccurate results, as I expect that the underlying trend will continue. That is, the percentage of new deaths every day will decrease and the doubling time will increase. Plotted on a logarithmic scale, the curve would be starting to flatten.

Yeah this site does plot the numbers on a logarithmic scale.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Scroll down to where the graphs are and then choose logarithmic. A case could be made that the rate of increase for the total number of cases is decreasing but you'd be hard put to make that claim yet for the number of deaths.

 

[garyt]

The mortality rate for flu would also be far lower if people practiced the same habits of social distancing and hand washing. This continuing comparison of COVID with the flu is, at best, misleading. COVId is far more dangerous

Totally agree. The actual mortality rate for the flu is way lower than stated. We talk about the number of people who have/had CV-19 but not been diagnosed but I'd bet the number of undiagnosed flu cases dwarfs that. In my 63 years I know of only 1 case of diagnosed flu in anyone I know, my then 93 year old Dad. Most people get the flu and stay home till better.
Plus, as I understand it, every pneumonia death is counted as a flu death even though there are many more causes of pneumonia.

 

[Gumby]

Yeah this site does plot the numbers on a logarithmic scale.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Scroll down to where the graphs are and then choose logarithmic. A case could be made that the rate of increase for the total number of cases is decreasing but you'd be hard put to make that claim yet for the number of deaths.

Thanks for that. I think we are still so early into this that we can't know for sure. I'll feel more confident if the trend continues for the next week.

 

[CRLLS]

The problem with extrapolating is that, no matter the formula, it assumes some status quo and many other unknown variables. This is a dynamic situation. As shown in Illinois this last week, in the midst of personal distancing orders, many crowded the parks in the warm Spring weather and some were playing football. WTF? The human element is not "status quo".

 

[Tiger8693]

The mortality rate for flu would also be far lower if people practiced the same habits of social distancing and hand washing. This continuing comparison of COVID with the flu is, at best, misleading. COVId is far more dangerous

IMO, that can't be said because we simply don't know how many people have actually been infected. I am not stating as a fact that it is not, just saying we can't know without knowing how many are infected. The only fact we know at this time, is that COVID19 (to date) has killed much less than the flu:

From CDC: The CDC estimates that during this US flu season (Oct 1, 2019 to March 21, 2020, there have been between 24k and 62k deaths.

 

[NW-Bound]

My PPE comment was about at this second.. I'm hearing medical professionals talking about not going in if they can't get the supplies.

But yes I believe the citizens not taking it seriously, including most of my moms side of the family even today. Luckily my sister gets it and the two of us have convinced my mom to stay put and not interact with any family other than my sister since my brother is one of the still thinks its the flu and he already had a bad cough in December so he already had it and is fine.

People who do not care get sick and overload the system, making it worse for everybody.

NYC paramedics are stressed out, because they now have to do triage and decide which cases are bad enough to take to the hospital, and whom to tell to stay home. They cannot take everyone to the hospitals because they are full.

And they are doing it without proper PPE, not given even new N95 masks. One said she reused the same mask for days. On Friday, 206 of them tested positive (total number of paramedics unknown).

PS. NYC paramedics also reported cases of cardiac arrests, and deaths at home. I wonder if anyone has the time to do a post-mortem test to see if the death is caused by the virus.

 

[CRLLS]

To quote Donald Rumsfeld "There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know."

IMO, this quote applies in this situation. It matters not whether it is an amateur observer/prognosticator, a health professional, a statistician or a government official. Only history will be able to relate the "real" numbers.

 

[Masquernom]

Let me tell you how I prepared a spreadsheet for my own state of Connecticut, and it may be helpful to frame the best answer to your question.

First, I had to determine whether I should count cases or deaths to determine growth rate. The number of new cases is affected by at least three things: the actual infectiousness of the virus; the efficacy of our countermeasures (social isolation and sanitation/disinfection); and, crucially, the amount of testing that is done. Deaths, on the other hand, I would not expect to be so affected by our testing regimen. At this point, the number of deaths is still low enough that day to day fluctuations can distort the identification of any underlying trend. To combat this, I use a 4 day rolling average.

Then, I had to choose a measure that would detect progress or lack thereof. As you have done, I chose to compare the percentage increase both in new cases compared to cumulative cases and in new deaths compared to cumulative deaths, using a 4 day rolling average for each. I also calculated the doubling time based on the percentage increase.

What the data show, for Connecticut, is that over the past four days the daily increment has decreased from 29% to 21% and doubling time has increased from approximately 2.5 days to 3.4 days. I could simply extrapolate from today's numbers, but I think that would lead to inaccurate results, as I expect that the underlying trend will continue. That is, the percentage of new deaths every day will decrease and the doubling time will increase. Plotted on a logarithmic scale, the curve would be starting to flatten.

ETA: one important caveat is that if the medical system gets overwhelmed and they run out of ventilators, the death rate probably will be distorted upward. Combined with improved testing, eventually the case rate might be a better measure.

I started a separate thread, but here's a link to a simple infectious disease model you can use.

Make Your Own SIR Model

I built the spreadsheet for Kentucky using this model. It's interesting. Assumes complete transmission. I used doubling every 3 days and 8.5 days to recover.

 

[Gumby]

This smart thermometer chart suggests that the social isolation measures are generally working. If you concentrate on the NY area - the NY counties of Kings, Queens and New York - which are the epicenter, you'll see that body temperatures are higher than normal but decreasing relatively sharply since the more stringent isolation measures were put in place around March 15th. It could be useful to compare these counties to ones with less evidence of COVID cases and less stringent isolation measures.


https://healthweather.us/

 

[NW-Bound]

... The only fact we know at this time, is that COVID19 (to date) has killed much less than the flu:

Emphasis on to date. And is it the only fact?

Does anyone have any number on the highest daily death count from influenza, in order to compare to the number of deaths with this virus on a daily basis?

Has the flu in the past caused entire hospitals be converted to be "flu hospitals"? And to cause postponements of elective surgeries?

Otherwise, we are comparing an entire season of flu deaths to that of just a few weeks with this virus. And the daily death count caused by this coronavirus is increasing each day.

PS. The latest COVID-19 death count over 24 hours (3/27 to 3/28) in the US is 525. The day earlier, it was 401 over a 24-hr period (3/26-3/27). Going back another day, only 268 died over the 24-hr period of 3/25-26.

The exponential growth is the important fact that we know about this virus.

PPS. At the rate it is growing, we will be around 1000 deaths/day by Monday. And it will keep on increasing too.

 

[Tiger8693]

Emphasis on to date.

Does anyone have any number on the highest daily deaths from influenza, in order to compare to the number of deaths with this virus on a daily basis?

Has the flu in the past caused entire hospitals be converted to be "flu hospitals"? And to cause postponements of elective surgeries?

Otherwise, we are comparing an entire season of flu deaths to that of just a few weeks. And the daily death count caused by this coronavirus is increasing each day.

Well, just extrapolating the numbers over ~170 days says from 141/day up to 376/day.

Maybe the question should be "Should" entire hospitals be converted to flu hospitals, based on the numbers....

I don't know that flu season ends March 21st, just their data, so the deaths from flu may not be done yet.

Just trying to put a little more information and perhaps perspective on this. I am not saying it isn't a bad situation. And yes, I am trying to do my part to not spread this deadly disease.

 

[Boho]

The fact that the rate is dropping even with all the dumb things I've seen people do is encouraging. I wish I was recording the security camera channel in my building. I don't know how I would use it but it's interesting to see how people behave in response to this situation.

I saw an old guy reading a death notice posted in the lobby, then as he turns to walk to the mailbox he picks his teeth with his finger.

A couple of days later I was watching an old lady reading the notice as I was thinking about the man. Just as I was thinking how unlikely it would be for her to do the same, a young adult comes out of the elevator picking her tooth with her finger or biting her nail.

A man went to the laundry room with his young son, about 4 years old. The kid puts his hands on the door of a washer then touches a public laundry cart meant for clean laundry.

On my last day of shopping, weeks ago, after people had been well warned and panic buying started, I saw a woman near the exit of the supermarket take her open hand and rub her entire face with it!

 

[Corporateburnout]

The death number will still be far lower than than the normal flu.

Not according to this study by the Institute for Health Metrics affiliated with the University of Washington. They estimate an 81,000 deaths while flu deaths in 2018-2019 season was 34,000 according to the CDC.

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/def...rticles/2020/COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf

 

[Winemaker]

The mortality rate for flu would also be far lower if people practiced the same habits of social distancing and hand washing. This continuing comparison of COVID with the flu is, at best, misleading. COVId is far more dangerous

The continuing comparison to the flu is only that is the only pandemic that we can compare it to in modern times, and I'm not saying it is the same illness. We cannot compare this to the 1918 Spanish flu, as public water and sanitation systems were only in their infancy and not the norm.

The H1N1 swine flu (I concede it is not the same illness), has some of the same symptoms, and attacked primarily those over 60. My DW, who taught Family and Consumer Science for over 30 years, always taught the basic principles of simple hygiene and food hygiene in the first week. Many students were aghast at what seemed to be basic common sense, but apparently weren't practiced at home. When the CDC guidelines came out back in 2009-2010 to be taught to all students, many were amazed that it was exactly what had been taught to them for the past 30 years.

 

[NW-Bound]

Maybe the question should be "Should" entire hospitals be converted to flu hospitals, based on the numbers....

Someone should go tell medical workers to stop what they are doing and go home. Their patients too.

 

[Tiger8693]

Someone should go tell medical workers to stop what they are doing and go home. Their patients too.

Ok, I will stop trying to put facts in to the conversation. Carry on...

 

[NW-Bound]

But the fact is that medical workers are stressed out. And they are running out of space to put their patients. And patients keep coming to them.

Why are the above not facts?

 

[audreyh1]

I think this thread needs a Heimlich maneuver...

Chocolate labs! Hmmmmm.....chocolate!

 

[Tiger8693]

But the fact is that medical workers are stressed out. And they are running out of space to put their patients. And patients keep coming to them.

Why are the above not facts?

I agree they are facts. But I also believe those are driven by what MIGHT turn out to be irrational fears? I don't know, will be a rear view understanding of the facts I think. I hope for many peoples sake it will be irrational in hindsight, not saying it is for sure.

 

[gauss]

The fact that the rate is dropping even with all the dumb things I've seen people do is encouraging. I wish I was recording the security camera channel in my building. I don't know how I would use it but it's interesting to see how people behave in response to this situation.

I saw an old guy reading a death notice posted in the lobby, then as he turns to walk to the mailbox he picks his teeth with his finger.

A couple of days later I was watching an old lady reading the notice as I was thinking about the man. Just as I was thinking how unlikely it would be for her to do the same, a young adult comes out of the elevator picking her tooth with her finger or biting her nail.

A man went to the laundry room with his young son, about 4 years old. The kid puts his hands on the door of a washer then touches a public laundry cart meant for clean laundry.

On my last day of shopping, weeks ago, after people had been well warned and panic buying started, I saw a woman near the exit of the supermarket take her open hand and rub her entire face with it!

One video I saw (NYC Dr. David Price, MD) says that the best reason for the masses to wear masks is to prevent the inadvertent touching of the face while out and about. Any mask will serve this purpose. I use dust/pollen masks found in my late DF's basement.

-gauss