Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?

[brewer12345]

Hardly catastrophic. It's like what happens every year. It's called Summer.

Unemployment spikes over 20% every summer where you live? Wow.

 

[razztazz]

Unemployment spikes over 20% every summer where you live? Wow.

Petty fogging. That is but one sub-detail. Meaningless to the thoughts expressed but it did provide a I suppose a needed deflection. I'm "wow" that you'd even use it in this context.

 

[aja8888]

Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.

Add to this municipalities releasing prisoners early to uncrowd jails as Houston is thinking of doing. Boy, that makes good sense!

 

[brewer12345]

Petty fogging. That is but one sub-detail. Meaningless to the thoughts expressed but it did provide a I suppose a needed deflection. I'm "wow" that you'd even use it in this context.

You know, you are right. There will not be a shred of extra crime in the next 2 years. You just make so much sense.

 

[sheehs1]

Everyone seems to be eagerly looking for the peak. That doesn't really mean squat. This stuff will still be loose and relaxing lockdowns will just result in more flare-ups. Watch for progress on vaccines.

I agree. And we are a year plus out from a vaccine..unless a miracle happens. Until then, there are 2nd and 3rd waves of this virus. Who is going to feel safe goin back to what was once our normal lives?

 

[VFK57]

Let's see:

- Large and increasing number of unemployed? Check.
- Police forces losing more and more officers to the virus/sick-outs? Check.
- General attitude of willingness to ignore theft and similar offences in large cities? Check
- Lots of people (including the bad ones) with too much time on their hands? Check.

Looks like we have all the ingredients for a crime spike.

Hopefully it would not come to it but if it is, I will keep my shot gun loaded and close by. I am looking with horror on what happens in New York and other states. How come that we are not ready and looking for lungs ventilators in China and Russia? Did not our scientists warned for years that it is a matter of time when deadly pandemic will strike?

 

[jldavid47]

What do you think?

Nope. But Mr. Market doesn't care what I think.

 

[easysurfer]

I think no way as the unemployment impact hasn't hit yet. I see the full extent of that is unknown until the Covid-19 thing is corralled.

 

[jollystomper]

Whenever the markets hit new highs, I look at my AA and determine its value should the markets fall lost 50-60%. So I am mentally (and hopefully financially) prepared for a potential low in the 12000-15000 range. but your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Running_Man]

The economy was already in support by the highest level of corporate debt in history. The S&P500 had thehighest percentage of company ever that had not made any money net for 3 years - over 30% of the S&P500. These companies are supported by debt. In an effort to prevent collapse the government is spending at a record deficit projection and the Central Banks are planning on expanding the balance sheet by 4 times the rate of 2008-2010.

The fastest decline in history of 30% just occurred and the market is in a consolidation phase. The economy of the United States has been changed overnight. The airline industry, the hotel industry and the restaurant industry have been eliminated as an industry for 2020. I think upon reflection and listening to the posters on this forum you can feel the angst of the crowd while it is trying to maintain an optimistic note, but I can feel the overall worry of the crowd.

What I see is what Mike Tyson says, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”
which Mike used to equate to “how much can you endure buddy?” Odds are this is going to be a historic bear market, I will take my chances with Treasury Bills for the time being since if I am wrong and the economy comes roaring back there is nothing to worry about, but if the move down is as historic as the early moves are indicating it will be, If the S&P500 falls to 1300 as I expect a nice first minimum down I will buy back at 40cents on the dollar my stock portfolio, leaving another 60 cents to purchase more if it falls below the 2009 low.VTI at 30 could be a possibility.

Anyone with a pension better hope I am totally off base as the security of pension payments will become a huge problem, most have never recovered from 2009 despite the greatest bull market of all time and there won’t be any government funding of pensions for several years after this revenue sucking economic event.

 

[tulak]

Add to this municipalities releasing prisoners early to uncrowd jails as Houston is thinking of doing. Boy, that makes good sense!

Yep. It’s already happening in my area. Keep in mind, it’s only non-violent criminals. Not great, but new times call for new norms.

 

[brewer12345]

Yep. It’s already happening in my area. Keep in mind, it’s only non-violent criminals. Not great, but new times call for new norms.

Um, sure. I am sure they are all really wonderful people. So long as they stay away from me and mine.

 

[tulak]

Um, sure. I am sure they are all really wonderful people. So long as they stay away from me and mine.

They rotated in and out of jail pre-corona. It’s never been a priority. Who knows, maybe with stay at home orders, they’ll decide to be complaint. I wouldn’t bet on it though.

 

[brewer12345]

They rotated in and out of jail pre-corona. It’s never been a priority. Who knows, maybe with stay at home orders, they’ll decide to be complaint. I wouldn’t bet on it though.

Dumping felons on the street in the middle of a pandemic and a severe recession. What could go wrong?

 

[BeachOrCity]

Bottom? There is no calling the bottom.
But if you think we found it in 30 days perhaps stocks are not for you?

 

[aja8888]

Dumping felons on the street in the middle of a pandemic and a severe recession. What could go wrong?

A friend of mine owns 6 Burger Kings here on the north side of Houston. He told me today that two of them have been broken into at night this week and the thieves used a grinder to cut into the safe.

He has had no break ins or robberies in years upto this week.

 

[brewer12345]

A friend of mine owns 6 Burger Kings here on the north side of Houston. He told me today that two of them have been broken into at night this week and the thieves used a grinder to cut into the safe.

He has had no break ins or robberies in years upto this week.

On the plus side, I basically don't leave the house now. Want to try breaking in? I am your huckleberry.

 

[Freedom56]

Was Dow 18000 the bottom? No. A breakdown of Apple, Microsoft, and United Health, McDonalds, Visa, Goldman Sachs, and Home Depot will cause a break through 18000.

 

[Running_Man]

Consider this one case. Delta Airlines is out today stating they expect revenues for the 2nd Quarter to be down 90%. The CEO stated that they are burning cash at the rate of 60 million dollars per day. The airline industry as a whole is getting 25 billion of aid, which sounds like a lot until you realize that Delta by the end of the second Quarter will be a company with no business and having burned up 5.4 billion dollars in the previous Quarter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246177536452767744

 

[targatom2019]

Why don’t you short the market then ?

 

[brewer12345]

Why don’t you short the market then ?

Perhaps he did.

I was short and closed my short positions as the bear market rally started. Now I am sitting in cash and watching. I'd love to go dumpster diving, but the economic statistics keep coming out worse than I could have imagined, so I just watch and wait.

 

[Running_Man]

Why don’t you short the market then ?

If I am incorrect in my assumption at present I lose nothing and have plenty for retirement. My retirement plans do not include trying to become as wealthy as possible, they are to be conservative in my investments that allows me to live freely in my older years. Had I come to this conclusion in a similar fashion before it became evident and could short the market extremely cheaply I would have as I did in the past. There was plenty of warnings and people I respected went short, I missed that opportunity, it is far too expensive now allowing for very little error on timing. The market at this point could still go to 1300 on the S&P500 in a bear market yet rally to 3000 before it turns down again. If the market were to rise to 3000 and get near the 200 day moving average then at that point perhaps I will, but now no.

 

[Thebttmline]

How come that we are not ready and looking for lungs ventilators in China and Russia? Did not our scientists warned for years that it is a matter of time when deadly pandemic will strike?

How come? Choices / priorities / limits.

In 2015, the state of NY determined that they needed 16,000 more ventilators (than the 2,000 they had) to be prepared for a pandemic. At a cost of $36K each, that was $576 million. Not a trivial sum. They decided to spend the money elsewhere, and instead created a set of rules for how to ration the ventilators they did have.

In hindsight, that looks like a poor decision. But, they do not have unlimited funds. If we were being hit with a different catastrophic event right now, for which ventilators were of no use, would people be criticizing them for wasting all that money on ventilators instead of what we REALLY needed?

 

[statsman]

Nope. No idea of the bottom, but it will be below 18,000.

 

[Retired Expat]

Let’s see what happens when the apex of death hits, how will the market handle 100k dead, 200k? Will life return to the previous normal? And big question is what happens if there is a second wave or a mutation that that is worse than the current virus?

Many industries will recover and thrive, others not so much. I don’t think cruising will ever be the same for example.