When will the restrictions be lifted?

[Midpack]

Looks like Florida will be the guinea pig. The Jacksonsville Mayor has already "partially" lifted restrictions for the beaches, but saying that people can't crowd, sit, can't have coolers, etc. People are supposed to be using the beach only for exercise. However, that didn't happen - people are crowding onto the beach. There are reports of coolers, and that will be ever more prevalent. I doubt he will be able to close the beaches.

Is anyone surprised? Most will follow reasonable guidance, some always “know better” especially in this age where actual experts are minimized. Truth has become harder to find.

 

[mpeirce]

Looks like Florida will be the guinea pig. The Jacksonsville Mayor has already "partially" lifted restrictions for the beaches, but saying that people can't crowd, sit, can't have coolers, etc. People are supposed to be using the beach only for exercise. However, that didn't happen - people are crowding onto the beach.

I'm not there, so this is just based on viewing photos from a few sources, but every photo I've seen of the "crowds" are a great example of lying with a photo.

The angle of the photo is such that it looks like a lot of people, but if you consider how big the area shown really is, the people are safely spread out.

I see no problem with people enjoying a nice walk on the beach.

 

[audreyh1]

We probably dodged a bad flu season due to the isolation rules for Covid-19. A silver lining...

I think we did have a bad flu season, and it was earlier than the start of isolation rules. I know when DH asked first week of March his Dr. said the season was essentially over in our area.

And it could well be that some cases in Jan and Feb and possibly earlier were Covid-19 instead of influenza contributing to a bad season.

 

[LRDave]

Is anyone surprised? Most will follow reasonable guidance, some always “know better” especially in this age where actual experts are minimized. Truth has become harder to find.

As Pogo famously said....

 

[Dtail]

Looks like Florida will be the guinea pig. The Jacksonsville Mayor has already "partially" lifted restrictions for the beaches, but saying that people can't crowd, sit, can't have coolers, etc. People are supposed to be using the beach only for exercise. However, that didn't happen - people are crowding onto the beach. There are reports of coolers, and that will be ever more prevalent. I doubt he will be able to close the beaches again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/gov...me-florida-beaches-green-light-to-reopen.html

And in the meantime, on the same day, Florida recorded its biggest increase in new cases:
https://www.news4jax.com/news/flori...-coronavirus-cases-top-24000-deaths-near-700/

And Florida has many urban concentrations retirees and people over 70, so - Florida has offered itself as the guinea pig. We shall see.

I may start a new thread on how to protect oneself during a transition and the transitions' other side effects. Florida will be a useful state to watch.

Sounds and looks about right.
The Villages will probably be next to have full scale activities restored.

 

[Midpack]

We probably dodged a bad flu season due to the isolation rules for Covid-19. A silver lining...

I think we did have a bad flu season, and it was earlier than the start of isolation rules. I know when DH asked first week of March his Dr. said the season was essentially over in our area.

And it could well be that some cases in Jan and Feb and possibly earlier were Covid-19 instead of influenza contributing to a bad season.

No one knows yet but the CDC is projecting above average flu deaths for 2019-2020. Ironically, fewer people with the flu are going to doctors because of Covid-19...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 

[aaronc879]

No earlier than the day after Memorial Day, May 26th. Don't want massive travel for the holiday weekend. Restaurants and Bars may have capacity restrictions but should be open by around May 26th. Schools won't be open until Fall at the earliest. Concerts and festivals should probably be cancelled until next Summer at least. I would expect most people to be able to go back work by June 1st.

 

[RAE]

There are a few states now (Michigan included) that have restricted non-essential items from being sold in stores like Costco and Target. That seems really excessive to me. Fortunately we don’t have to deal with that in California. I can understand all the protests taking place. It must be extremely frustrating, especially if they have something in stock that you really need and you can’t add it to your basket before checking out. I don’t get what they were thinking there.

I live in Michigan. I believe the reason for those types of restrictions was that some people were going into the big box stores and basically shopping only for things that were considered "non-essential" (like lawn mowers, paint, potted flowers, etc, etc). So, I think the Governor wanted to find a way to stop that type of behavior, since it was adding to crowds at those stores and making social distancing more difficult than if people were only going there for "essential" items (like maybe some parts to fix a plumbing leak in your house, or whatever).

I'm not saying that I agree 100% with these restrictions, by the way. Just reporting what I have read as to why the Governor felt they were necessary.

 

[HF63]

Pellice,


Please do follow on your idea for:
I may start a new thread on how to protect oneself during a transition and the transitions' other side effects. Florida will be a useful state to watch.

 

[RAE]

I think we did have a bad flu season, and it was earlier than the start of isolation rules. I know when DH asked first week of March his Dr. said the season was essentially over in our area.

And it could well be that some cases in Jan and Feb and possibly earlier were Covid-19 instead of influenza contributing to a bad season.

I just saw some data yesterday showing a big spike in deaths from pneumonia in Florida around mid-March. Most everyone believed, until recently, that influenza was the major cause of most of that pneumonia; but now, many doctors feel that it could have been COVID-19 in many of those cases. No COVID-19 testing was done on the vast majority of those folks, so we'll never know for sure.

 

[PatrickA5]

Yes, this is true. The thing about this time is, if somebody comes down with COVID-19, I fully expect people to blame the victim instead of extending sympathies. "Hmph! After all, you're 70! You should have done a better job of protecting yourself!"

+1

I can hear it now - "He must have stopped following the rules for old people - they aren't supposed to be in contact with young people anymore".

 

[PatrickA5]

Here's a plan by J.P.Morgan which looks interesting, more targeted than what others are suggesting https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-9ovokf4/6P7NFgmiolotx-biD-kR1g/GPS-3334428-0

The conclusion
Here's a blogpost by Tyler Cowan critical of the assumption that the results of social distancing are an acceptable criteria to begin opening. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/social-distancing-is-working-so-well.html

Exactly what I've been predicting for several weeks now.

Our state has already started the "let's open up while protecting the vulnerable" talk. Translated: All you youngins' carry on with your normal life. You old farts - stay home or die!"

Who knows. Maybe that's the way it has to be until a vaccine comes along. I doubt us oldies (I'm 61) will go along, though - but I guess if I catch it, I just wasn't following the rules enough.

 

[JustCurious]

Is anyone surprised? Most will follow reasonable guidance, some always “know better” especially in this age where actual experts are minimized. Truth has become harder to find.

I have no problem with the government issuing "reasonable guidance," but I do have a problem when the government imposes their "reasonable guidance" on me by force of law and takes away my civil liberties.

 

[Chuckanut]

Looks like Florida will be the guinea pig. The Jacksonsville Mayor has already "partially" lifted restrictions for the beaches, but saying that people can't crowd, sit, can't have coolers, etc. People are supposed to be using the beach only for exercise. However, that didn't happen - people are crowding onto the beach. There are reports of coolers, and that will be ever more prevalent. I doubt he will be able to close the beaches again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/gov...me-florida-beaches-green-light-to-reopen.html

And in the meantime, on the same day, Florida recorded its biggest increase in new cases:
https://www.news4jax.com/news/flori...-coronavirus-cases-top-24000-deaths-near-700/

And Florida has many urban concentrations retirees and people over 70, so - Florida has offered itself as the guinea pig. We shall see.

Last weekend parks in my area were closed for the weekend due to our first few warm, shirt sleeve days of the year. This weekend, they have learned from their mistake. The parks are open, but we are advised to 'keep moving'. No standing in groups, picnicking, sunbathing, etc. Supposedly the police will patrol the parks and remind us to not stop.

I have heard that a place called "Villages" in Florida may be the next hot spot for CV-19. Apparently, it is a huge senior retirement community with tens of thousands of we old folks. They love to play cards, dance, and generally socialize in groups. It sounds like a big version of the senior care facilities where CV19 can go wild. This is all 2nd and 3rd hand [-]speculation[/-] information. I've never been to the place.

 

[Moemg]

Death rates are going up in Florida so our governor is opening up the state . In the interest of no politics I will not say what I feel about our governor .

 

[MRG]

2020, 2021, 2022.

IMHO - The lack of coordination and current lack of supplies will make 2020's opening look like the "As God as My Witness I Thought Turkeys Could Fly" episode of WKRP.

We will repeat the denial a couple times until the deniers kill a high percentage of themselves off.

 

[Leo1277]

I just saw some data yesterday showing a big spike in deaths from pneumonia in Florida around mid-March. Most everyone believed, until recently, that influenza was the major cause of most of that pneumonia; but now, many doctors feel that it could have been COVID-19 in many of those cases. No COVID-19 testing was done on the vast majority of those folks, so we'll never know for sure.

That's very interesting, do you have a reference for these pneumonia data? In a similar vein, there was a situation in mid to late February in our school district in SE Florida where a large number of students came down with something like an annoying stomach bug, and a few days later, many of the parents came down with what they described as "the worst flu of my life" which knocked them out for up to 2-3 weeks. I have been wondering if this wasn't Covid-19 in disguise.

 

[LOL!]

I live in Texas. In my county more than 85% of the people who died from coronavirus lived within 1.5 miles of me. I don't really care what the "re-opening" or "reduction of restrictions" timeline will be.

I will continue to protect myself and my family from clowns that want to get out and spread any infection. I suspect that many people feel the same way as I do. I believe that some people really want to work because they really need the money to pay bills. I believe that they will take risks that I will not take.

I am in a fortunate financial situation that I could go years with the current stay-at-home advice. While it is sort of a mild "house arrest" because I can go for walks, go grocery shopping, do yard work, do online shopping, and exercise at home it is not the same as my old normal routines of going out in public. But I prefer to not get sick.

I don't mind if others experiment with going out in public to some extent in order to see what happens. A 2nd wave? A 3rd wave? Let's see what happens.

 

[Turbo29]

I have no problem with the government issuing "reasonable guidance," but I do have a problem when the government imposes their "reasonable guidance" on me by force of law and takes away my civil liberties.

+1

 

[Ian S]

We have no interest in sporting events. We have no interest in visiting crowded noisy restaurants or bars. We're finding that grocery delivery works pretty well and online shopping works for most things. Our closest family is hundreds of miles away and we stay in contact with friends without getting up close and personal. We'll keep following our strict social distancing indefinitely no matter what is decided in our state as far as "opening up" is concerned.

 

[SecondCor521]

Observations in my neck of the woods (Boise, Idaho). For context, Idaho was under a reasonably moderately restrictive stay-at-home order from 3/23 through 4/15, and the order was extended on 4/15 to 4/30 with some very slight relaxations.

There is definitely more traffic on the roads and in the stores. Mask and/or glove usage and social distancing is practiced by perhaps half of the people in stores, but it's definitely age related. Those under ~45 are mostly not; those over mostly are, although there are exceptions in both directions. I get the sense that people here will put up with it for a while but have their limits on what they are willing and able to adjust to.

Idaho's projected total death count is around 41 and we're projected to have 63 (IHME version 2020_04_16.05). We have about 1.8M people in the state. So it's one of those places that hasn't been hit hard yet. I am keenly interested to see whether the predictions of a stronger second wave if/when we relax our guard here will occur. Personally I don't think so, but I've been wrong on a few things with this virus already, so... :shrug:.

I'm almost 51 with no COVID health risk except being overweight. I plan to in general do what those in governance recommend as long as it seems reasonable to me and is based on data and recommendations from medical experts.

 

[Midpack]

I have no problem with the government issuing "reasonable guidance," but I do have a problem when the government imposes their "reasonable guidance" on me by force of law and takes away my civil liberties.

That’s completely out of context.

You’re misquoting my reply to a post where a Jacksonville Mayor had reportedly lifted (voluntary) restrictions and people were asked to follow social distancing practices on beaches, and some didn’t. Social distancing is a reasonable suggestion, mostly unenforceable so essentially voluntary - no one had their civil liberties taken away by force of law.

 

[Pellice]

I have no problem with the government issuing "reasonable guidance," but I do have a problem when the government imposes their "reasonable guidance" on me by force of law and takes away my civil liberties.

Alas, one person's civil liberties can and do conflict with another's. And one person does not infrequently say to another, "You are infringing on my liberties." Thus, government.

 

[LOL!]

I think the definition of "civil liberties" is going to change over the next few months.

 

[Car-Guy]

It's hard for many of us "around here" to fully appreciate why the country has been locked down to the degree it has been almost everywhere. My county has only had 5 confirmed cases and in the 6 counties that surround us the total number of cases is less than 25. And one of those counties has had zero cases. Out of those only a couple of individuals have been hospitalized and zero deaths so far. Hair salons, gyms, bars, courts, schools and in-door dinning have been closed for the past few weeks but not much else that I've noticed. Less than 20% of people in the stores are wearing face masks. Except maybe for schools and large public gatherings, I think we're ready to get back to normal around here, for the most part.