Fantastic Vaccine Results in US

[Aerides]

I did not say that the vaccines are not working. I was just saying that they are not as good as I expected, i.e., completely stop infections. I have no problem with the vaccines and I am fully vaccinated if that matters.

Two things:

First, only a small percent of people under 50 have been vaccinated. So it's still early days. Another 2 months should get us down only to those who decline to get vaccinated, and those under 18 (or 16, or whatever).

Second, the vaccines them selves have never purposed to completely stop infection. They do, however, claim to stop illness, most importantly, severe illness, hospitalization, and death. That is what we were told to expect when the vaccines were launched. If you expected something else, I'm not clear as to why.

And that second part is certainly playing out in the data, and the reason the OP created this thread. Deaths are dropping, a lot, which was kind of the whole point.

 

[JoeWras]

It is unfortunate the T-cell test is difficult/costly. The data is just not there yet. It is leaving us flying blind right now.

BTW, I was volunteering with someone yesterday who had covid in October. They still tested positive for antibodies in late Feb when giving convelescent plasma. They also recently got the J&J vaccine, so there is overlap.

As for their sickness... Both he and his wife thought fall allergies were kicking up. Then their son told them his wife was quite sick with covid-19. They went to get tested and were positive. If there wasn't a pandemic going on, they would have just carried on normally. Easy to see how spreading is happening so easily.

 

[CaptTom]

One data point; my son tested positive for COVID-19 in early December. Very minor symptoms, if any. He tested negative for antibodies a few days ago. So either one of the tests were flat-out wrong, or the antibody test is not a good indicator. From everything I've read about the immune system (funny how we're all becoming experts lately!) I suspect the latter.

 

[harllee]

One data point; my son tested positive for COVID-19 in early December. Very minor symptoms, if any. He tested negative for antibodies a few days ago. So either one of the tests were flat-out wrong, or the antibody test is not a good indicator. From everything I've read about the immune system (funny how we're all becoming experts lately!) I suspect the latter.

Another possibility is that your son had such a light case of Covid that he developed very few antibodies and those few antibodies have already dissipated.

 

[ERD50]

Recent CDC chart of weekly deaths per 100,000 people showing drastic drops in deaths in older age groups since January 2021. For age group 80+, weekly deaths have dropped from 61 per 100,000 to less than 1. For age group 65-79, weekly deaths have dropped from 16 per 100,000 to less than 1.

What a difference!

I'm not so sure the data is that clear. I wonder about the big uptick (looking at us old folks) in Sept~Dec of last year, after a big drop off (why that drop off, with no vaccine?). Yes, the current drop off is to very low levels, but there could be many other things in play. As mentioned, the most susceptible among the aged have already passed, better treatment protocols, etc.

I don't doubt the vaccines are playing a big role (I sure hope so, I just got my first shot of Pfizer), but I think we need to see more data to get a clearer picture. I'm hopeful, it sure would be nice for some socializing to get back to normal.

-ERD50

 

[Popeye]

For my glimpse into the future, I’ve been watching both UK rates and Israel rates. Cases and deaths are both way down and these two countries have both vaccinated larger percentages than the US. Compare the UK rates to the rest of Europe. To me that shows the vaccines are doing a great job.

 

[Popeye]

Is anyone else avoiding young folks when you’re out in stores? I have not received a shot yet. I was out at the Rite-Aide the other night when a group of teens came into the store. All had masks but my immediate thought was stay away from me you little carriers! Lol! Then I quickly retreated back down a side aisle!

 

[Sunset]

Is anyone else avoiding young folks when you’re out in stores? I have not received a shot yet. I was out at the Rite-Aide the other night when a group of teens came into the store. All had masks but my immediate thought was stay away from me you little carriers! Lol! Then I quickly retreated back down a side aisle!

ha ha ha... I'm staying away from as many people as I can, as I can see the finish line by having the 1st shot, I don't want to mess up and catch covid now.

 

[RetireeRobert]

One data point; my son tested positive for COVID-19 in early December. Very minor symptoms, if any. He tested negative for antibodies a few days ago. So either one of the tests were flat-out wrong, or the antibody test is not a good indicator. From everything I've read about the immune system (funny how we're all becoming experts lately!) I suspect the latter.

It is also possible your son had a "false positive" for the covid test. I heard that can occur sometimes. You did say he had very minor "if any" symptoms. Maybe he never had covid!

 

[wrigley]

Just heard on the news that last Friday they gave enough vaccines in the US to vaccinate 1% of the entire US population, just in that one day. I am really impressed how quickly the US is administering the vaccines. I have seen predictions of herd immunity in the US by July, if by then there is a vaccination for kids and if most of the population will show up and get the vaccine. I am feeling more optimistic.

That will be the big question. How many will "show up"? I've heard 1/2 the US population WILL NOT get the vaccine. Here in Florida it was 65+ 2 weeks ago. Today it starts 40+ and that's because the turnout has been poor so they lowered the age requirement. Most people I speak to are still concerned with unknown long-term side effects.


Mike

 

[Alan]

European countries are doing very poorly with their vaccine rollout and some of them like France, Italy and Spain who were hit very hard last year are now going through a 3rd wave.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The UK has given the first dose to more than half the adult population, all over 50 or with health problems, and are now coming out of lockdown, with deaths and Covid patients in hospital rapidly falling since the vaccination program started. Under 50's scheduled to begin end of April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

[Ronstar]

I did not say that the vaccines are not working. I was just saying that they are not as good as I expected, i.e., completely stop infections. I have no problem with the vaccines and I am fully vaccinated if that matters.

As of 3/25, 14.3% of the US is vaccinated. How can infections completely stop when only 14.3% are vaccinated?

 

[Alan]

As of 3/25, 14.3% of the US is vaccinated. How can infections completely stop when only 14.3% are vaccinated?

I agree.

It is the dramatic drop in deaths of the older age groups that OP was pointing out as they have been the main target of the vaccine rollout.

 

[MichaelB]

I agree.

It is the dramatic drop in deaths of the older age groups that OP was pointing out as they have been the main target of the vaccine rollout.

Exactly. Along with this is a very large drop in new hospitalizations.

 

[jollystomper]

As of 3/25, 14.3% of the US is vaccinated. How can infections completely stop when only 14.3% are vaccinated?

Infections are never going to completely stop. Virus is going to virus. But what will happen in the impact on the health system should continue to fall greatly.

Other factors to consider:
- Some percentage of the population is immune/will show zero symptoms when being infected so for themselves are safe.
- The low hanging "survival of the fittest" fruit has already been picked, particularly among the older groups. The "survivors" are less likely to be impacted.
- Some who already have been infected and recovered might be considered "vaccinated" at least for a while, since the data suggests reinfection may be rare.

I do plan to continue to take appropriate cautions, but the evidence is also clear that all infections are not created equal.

 

[Amethyst]

Old people had the most COVID deaths, and those have dropped like a stone. With only a fraction of the population vaccinated, and a lot of them refusing to mask or social distance, how can it be the vaccines' fault that cases and deaths still occur?

I did not say that the vaccines are not working. I was just saying that they are not as good as I expected, i.e., completely stop infections. I have no problem with the vaccines and I am fully vaccinated if that matters.

 

[teejayevans]

As of 3/25, 14.3% of the US is vaccinated. How can infections completely stop when only 14.3% are vaccinated?

But we don’t know how many already had it and are immune? Unless they went to hospital or died, we would not know. I’m sure people can guess, but they don’t know.
So maybe with vaccines we’re much higher % of immunity. 50, 60, 70?

 

[audreyh1]

But we don’t know how many already had it and are immune? Unless they went to hospital or died, we would not know. I’m sure people can guess, but they don’t know.
So maybe with vaccines we’re much higher % of immunity. 50, 60, 70?

Unless new daily Covid cases drop off dramatically, we aren’t any where near herd immunity. Cases instead are rising again.

At this point we’re working hard to limit the worst outcomes of the disease, and clearly the vaccine is helping tremendously. And I hope it continues to do so in the face of another surge due to states opening up completely while at the same time more contagious variants are spreading across the US.

Meanwhile, I’m scheduled to get my first dose this afternoon, and anxious to get it as I’m quite concerned about cases rising among the younger folks, and B117 raging in parts of the country. B117 is particularly contagious among the 13-17 age group, so with schools opening everywhere, it will spread rapidly across households.

 

[Amethyst]

The drop in nursing home deaths is especially impressive, given what I read about shot refusal by a lot of the help.

I've always been even more scared of gruesome long-term damage from COVID, than of dying from it. How that doesn't scare other people is beyond me.

 

[Out of Steam]

Maybe the weakest are already dead, the ones alive already have immunity. It looks like that the effects of the vaccines are not as good as expected to have dropped infections like a falling-cliff.

I think what has happened is that many people who haven't gotten a vaccine are relaxing their guard as they see falling death and infection rates.

My guess is that about half of Americans who will ever get vaccinated have had at least one shot, and that we will top out about 60% vaccinated. In addition to anti-vaccine people, many others are afraid of huge bills from any voluntary interaction with a medical facility, however baseless that is for COVID vaccination.

 

[Out of Steam]

I've always been even more scared of gruesome long-term damage from COVID, than of dying from it. How that doesn't scare other people is beyond me.

The same for me. I've realized in the past year that I don't have a life plan that doesn't involve my being physically active into my 70s.

The combination of that and taking an immunosuppressant medication has made me very cautious about COVID.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

One data point; my son tested positive for COVID-19 in early December. Very minor symptoms, if any. He tested negative for antibodies a few days ago. So either one of the tests were flat-out wrong, or the antibody test is not a good indicator. From everything I've read about the immune system (funny how we're all becoming experts lately!) I suspect the latter.

In our case, DW tested positive a few months ago, I tested negative. She took a follow up test a couple of days after the initial positive and then tested negative. I have since given blood (about every 50 days) and the antibody tests have been negative. My FIL also tested positive but an antibody test about a month later was also negative. So, I think there *may* have been quite a few false positives.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Saw this CDC release that shows that even just one dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine has shown a marked reduction of 80% risk of infection for those with just ONE vaccine (14 days post vaccination). This mirrors a couple of other studies that show similar numbers and is really good news. If these numbers are accurate, then the % of Americans with 80%+ risk reduction is significant.

A new CDC study provides strong evidence that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections in real-world conditions among health care personnel, first responders, and other essential workers. These groups are more likely than the general population to be exposed to the virus because of their occupations.

The study looked at the effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections among 3,950 study participants in six states over a 13-week period from December 14, 2020 to March 13, 2021.

Results showed that following the second dose of vaccine (the recommended number of doses), risk of infection was reduced by 90 percent two or more weeks after vaccination. Following a single dose of either vaccine, the participants’ risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reduced by 80 percent two or more weeks after vaccination.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html

 

[teejayevans]

I think what has happened is that many people who haven't gotten a vaccine are relaxing their guard as they see falling death and infection rates.

My guess is that about half of Americans who will ever get vaccinated have had at least one shot, and that we will top out about 60% vaccinated. In addition to anti-vaccine people, many others are afraid of huge bills from any voluntary interaction with a medical facility, however baseless that is for COVID vaccination.

FWIW: The person giving me the shot did not and will not get the vaccine.

 

[dirtbiker]

The drop in nursing home deaths is especially impressive, given what I read about shot refusal by a lot of the help.

I've always been even more scared of gruesome long-term damage from COVID, than of dying from it. How that doesn't scare other people is beyond me.

It's amazing to me how fear of the unknown outweighs fear of the known in many people. I tell my patients who are debating getting the vaccine that they get to choose between the unlikely possibility of long-term adverse effects of the vaccine or known severe long-term effects of the virus. To me, it's a no-brainer.

And what I find really interesting is that the same group of people who have complained most loudly about government shut downs and about having to wear masks, etc. are the same ones refusing the vaccines. Well, if you don't like the pandemic, do your part to help end it. Refusing to vaccinate, and even worse, convincing others not to get vaccinated, is doing quite the opposite. Unfortunately, humans are largely stupid and selfish...





But, hey, this past weekend, I went out to eat (sitting down, not take-out) for the first time in over a year! And we celebrated my youngest daughter's second birthday with some family, again, a first in over a year. We are fortunate to be fully vaccinated, as were all of the adults at the small party. We're still wearing masks out and avoiding large crowds, but after a year of being very strict, it's nice to have some human interaction again outside of our own home, and feeling relatively safe in doing so because of the vaccines.