OK, I did another search and found VG's 2016 year end estimated distributions. The per share amount for Total Intl was net of taxes, so in estimating what will show on 1099-DIV you'll have to factor in foreign taxes on top of the three quarters already distributed, plus the estimated 4th quarter. Just as people said here.
Also, these really are just estimates. VTIAX estimated $.20 per share, and was actually $.209. VTSAX was estimated at $.32, but the actual was $.354 per share. The latter seems like a surprising amount off. At this point in the year I wouldn't expect any new dividend declarations announced with increases that still take place this year.
I guess it's just a matter of staying well away from any cliffs until after dividends are all distributed, and even then you have to conservatively guess how much is added in international fund dividends in the form of foreign taxes paid. I'd promise not to do the Roth conversion horse race again if they'd let me do small recharacterizations to not fall over the ledge.
I have a new Flagship rep assigned and he encouraged contact, so I went ahead and asked him the question. He verified that the year end estimates are net of foreign taxes, and said he could not find any estimates for the foreign tax rate. Of course I can use previous years', but those vary.
He also cautioned that the estimates were just that, estimates.
So, with recharacterizations going away, those of us converting to the top of 0% LTCGs (may not be the same as top of 15% bracket next year), or more importantly, to the top of the ACA cliff, we're going to have to wait until distributions come out in mid/late December, then for international funds tack on an estimate for foreign taxes. There's no correcting an overage so you have to leave some buffer. My advice is to practice and learn this year, even if you just do it on paper.
I'm also encouraged that my new Flagship rep understood my question and answered it fully, rather than just cutting and pasting something from the estimates page that didn't really apply.
I am a little put off that they can't give me the foreign tax rate. After all, what gets distributed to me is the dividends issues by the corporations,
net of taxes, so therefore it seems like they would know how much they took out in taxes to net out the distribution. Unless somehow the taxes are taken out before Vanguard sees them, and they get reported to VG later in time for them to issue the 1099s.