How do I get someone to reply to my thread? I'm a little new to the site and don't know how to get a reply.
You might try sending a PM to Dory36, the guy who built FIRECalc. Not sure you'll get a response but it's worth a try.How do I get someone to reply to my thread? I'm a little new to the site and don't know how to get a reply.
Here's what I'm trying to confirm: That the values in a FIRECalc run actually shows a 40+% decline for 2008. How I arrived at this question is that I ran FIRECalc for a 30-year period with 1979 beginning the last 30-year period. Then looking at the values between the next to last and last years - which should be for 2008 - the values usually show only about a 25+% decline. The values I'm referring to are those in the Excel spreadsheet which is an option in the Investigate tab before running FIRECalc. If the decline is actually input as 40+%, I cannot find it refected in actual values.
FIRECalc uses actual history from 1871 through 2008. To my knowledge there is no way to plug in "what if" market return numbers to get it to do what you're asking.I wonder how to get a FIRECacl run showing taking a terrible beating in first year or so, and then maybe a ~+35% gain in a later year, and then back to averages after that? Seems like that would be the most likely outcome going forward.
Regarding the second part of my issue, ie, how to model going forward in current economic conditions, I ran FIRECalc and found that the 30-year series with the worst first year is beginning in 1931, and the worst last year is beginning 1903. So it appears the best to do going forward is to look at the 30-year period beginning in 1931. Overall, I guess the magic 100% success result overshadows all other little details.
I believe only with the selection of Total Market under the Your Portfolio tab will the 40% decline in equities be calculated.By the way... the only updated data I have is the "standard" market and interest data. So the "mixed portfolio" will not include the new data. That portfolio data was generously contributed by Bob Clyatt, the author of Work Less Live More, but that was a one time contribution, and I have no practical and accurate way to extend it to later years.