Markola
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
This compelling, I think, macro economic thesis puts the recent tension between governments and central banks and their reactions to challenges in a convincing context. Covid and the Ukraine War have caused governments to seize the reins from markets and central banks, repeating the cycle of 1939 - 1979, with fairly predictable costs and benefits and winners (banks, naturally, manufacturing, government and corporate debt loads) and losers (savers, especially govt bond holders.):
“In summer of 2020, you predicted that inflation was coming back and that we were looking at a prolonged period of financial repression. We currently experience 8+% inflation in Europe and the US. What’s your assessment today?”
“My forecast is unchanged: This is structural in nature, not cyclical. We are experiencing a fundamental shift in the inner workings of most Western economies. In the past four decades, we have become used to the idea that our economies are guided by free markets. But we are in the process of moving to a system where a large part of the allocation of resources is not left to markets anymore. Mind you, I’m not talking about a command economy or about Marxism, but about an economy where the government plays a significant role in the allocation of capital. The French would call this system «dirigiste». This is nothing new, as it was the system that prevailed from 1939 to 1979. We have just forgotten how it works, because most economists are trained in free market economics, not in history.”
https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606
“In summer of 2020, you predicted that inflation was coming back and that we were looking at a prolonged period of financial repression. We currently experience 8+% inflation in Europe and the US. What’s your assessment today?”
“My forecast is unchanged: This is structural in nature, not cyclical. We are experiencing a fundamental shift in the inner workings of most Western economies. In the past four decades, we have become used to the idea that our economies are guided by free markets. But we are in the process of moving to a system where a large part of the allocation of resources is not left to markets anymore. Mind you, I’m not talking about a command economy or about Marxism, but about an economy where the government plays a significant role in the allocation of capital. The French would call this system «dirigiste». This is nothing new, as it was the system that prevailed from 1939 to 1979. We have just forgotten how it works, because most economists are trained in free market economics, not in history.”
https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606
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