It seems I am in the minority who thinks that the market has things approximately right currently, and I'd like to understand from someone I respect and someone who is of a different opinion (I think that's safe to say) so I can learn.
I'm genuinely interested in everyone's opinion on this question.
Please and thank you.
I’m in. And happy to join you in believing the markets have it right. Am I right? Who knows. This is my argument, however:
1. A largely free market, even if wrong, is the best we have.
2. Even if the U.S. stock market isn’t “largely free,” it is what we have and I will happily support it. How many millionaires and billionaires has it created? And in saying that, I don’t believe wealth is a measure of fulfillment or success. As I age, I have come to question the pursuit of wealth beyond that which is necessary to live. I know a lot of miserable wealthy people. I know a lot of carpenters that I admire.
3. I have no problem with machines trading with machines. My iPhone is smarter than I am. The line between Homo sapiens and machines is blurring daily, and has been for decades (see, e.g., biomedical engineering).
4. At the end of the day, this is a statistical issue. The market is a convoluted mess of countless individuals and machines taking a view of the future. The market is a statistically valid sample under all scenarios of which I am aware. Those arguing that the market is missing something have an uphill climb arguing the contrary.
5: It is hard for me to imagine a future that is bleak. I hope I am alive in 2050. Folks alive then will be better off than us, same as we are better off than those alive half a century ago.
Having said all of the above, I am likely wrong.