Dow over 28,000!

[W2R]

Just eyeballing, that is not that uncommon after a crash

Oh!! I must have not been clear. I had no intention of claiming categorically that this was either common or uncommon after a crash. My intentions were to simply cite my own limited experiences and spread holiday cheer.

So,
NEXT TIME I WILL PUT THE PERTINENT PHRASES IN BOLD!! HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!

 

[NW-Bound]

Dow 990 in 1966 when I started investing. Fast forward 17 years I believe if finally broke 1000.

There is 'stay the course' and then there is stay the course.

Index fund was available in my 401k about 1976/77.

heh heh heh - Sure 28000 is fun. As long as they don't take back my Curmudgeon Certificate.

That was before my time, so I have to look up some info on the Web.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the Dow reached 8000 (in today's dollars) in Jan 1966. It then crashed to 2133 in 1982, with the low value due to high inflation in the preceding years. It did not recover to 8000, again in today's dollars, until the end of 1995. That's 29 years of no appreciation!

Of course, the total return is better than the above if we count the dividend. Still, the market return was really crummy in the above period. And we have talked often about how FIRECalc results reflect that.

See: https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

 

[Andre1969]

Eleven years ago today, the Dow was at 8,573.

At closing on Friday, the Dow was 28,455.

I am not the world's most experienced investor, but I don't remember this ever happening quite like this, at least not when I had a dog in the fight so to speak.

We have so much to be thankful for! I know, it's not Thanksgiving, but still...

Happy Holidays, everyone.

And, without looking it up, I'm pretty sure the Dow went even lower than that around that timeframe. I remember my net worth bottoming out around Thanksgiving of 2008. By the end of December, I was actually up about 20%! Then there was the "official" bottom, of March 9, 2009. My NW was a bit above the Thanksgiving amount, but mostly because of additional investments.

 

[W2R]

And so far today, the Dow is up by yet another 105 points! Must be that often cited "Christmas Bounce" I suppose.

Some of us determine how much we can withdraw, according to a percentage of portfolio balance on 12/31. It would be so nice for them if this keeps up through the end of the year, just 9 more days

 

[Dtail]

And so far today, the Dow is up by yet another 105 points! Must be that often cited "Christmas Bounce" I suppose.

Some of us determine how much we can withdraw, according to a percentage of portfolio balance on 12/31. It would be so nice for them if this keeps up through the end of the year, just 9 more days

Ah but only 4.5 more trading days....

 

[W2R]

Ah but only 4.5 more trading days....

So true! But yesterday my portfolio+bank account total went up again, to a new all time high. The Dow had gone down a few points, but the portfolio total went up due to annual yield.

What a nice total to see on Christmas. Merry Christmas, everyone.

 

[Another Reader]

Given how much crowing there has been from You Know Who, I'm pretty sure we are due for a 50 percent decline in 2020. And we can blame it all on the W--- Girl...

 

[W2R]

Given how much crowing there has been from You Know Who, I'm pretty sure we are due for a 50 percent decline in 2020. And we can blame it all on the W--- Girl...

Being happy during the good times is a great learned skill, one that I have worked on and practiced to develop!

IIRC it was comparatively easy for most of us to be gloomy and unhappy when experiencing a market crash. I remember all those "I'm devastated by the market crash, now must go back to work" or "I'm no longer able to live in the US on 4% so I'm moving to Mexico" posts back in 2008-2009. It was heartbreaking.

 

[Another Reader]

Being happy during the good times is a great learned skill, one that I have worked on and practiced to develop!

IIRC it was comparatively easy for most of us to be gloomy and unhappy when experiencing a market crash. I remember all those "I'm devastated by the market crash, now must go back to work" or "I'm no longer able to live in the US on 4% so I'm moving to Mexico" posts back in 2008. It was heartbreaking.

I'm working on being happy in the upcoming bad times, whenever they start. If you learn that skill, please share it with the rest of us!

 

[W2R]

I'm working on being happy in the upcoming bad times, whenever they start. If you learn that skill, please share it with the rest of us!

Most of the mod team practiced that in 2008-2009, in an attempt to encourage others here not to sell low. There was a lot of that going on back then, too. Seriously, the next time the market takes a serious drop, I hope you and other oldtimers on the forum join me in an attempt to dissuade those who are thinking of selling low.

 

[Cessna152]

I'm working on being happy in the upcoming bad times, whenever they start. If you learn that skill, please share it with the rest of us!

Oh, we ain't got a barrel of money
Maybe we're ragged and funny
But we'll travel along singing a song
Side by side

Don't know what's coming tomorrow
Maybe it's trouble and sorrow
But we'll travel the road sharin' our load
Side by side

Through all kind of weather
What if the sky should fall
As long as we're together
It doesn't matter at all

When they've all had their quarrels and parted
We'll be the same as we started
Just to travel along singing a song
Side by side

 

[Dtail]

So true! But yesterday my portfolio+bank account total went up again, to a new all time high. The Dow had gone down a few points, but the portfolio total went up due to annual yield.

What a nice total to see on Christmas. Merry Christmas, everyone.

Same here.
New high by 300 dollars.

 

[JDARNELL]

I'm working on being happy in the upcoming bad times, whenever they start. If you learn that skill, please share it with the rest of us!

The last melt down I didn’t have a plan and did nothing. I said before the next one I need to have a plan. Still nothing. Maybe it’s the best way for me to go so I don’t screw it up.

 

[Dtail]

The last melt down I didn’t have a plan and did nothing. I said before the next one I need to have a plan. Still nothing. Maybe it’s the best way for me to go so I don’t screw it up.

Hey I worked on Wall Street in valuation and still had no plan in 2008.
I think I do have a plan now, but only time will tell.

 

[Bigdawg]

Index fund was available in my 401k about 1976/77.

Close. The 401k plan was first created in 1978 as part of the Tax Revenue Act, although it did not become widely used as an investment tool for many years.

 

[DrRoy]

The increase in that total since the beginning of 2019 is more than 11 times the amount I have spent from my portfolio during that same time span.

Well, that's just silly!! Obviously I've got to get busy and spend more, quickly!

Our ratio is about 9X, and we are pulling more cash to spend next year - mainly some extra projects around the house that we can enjoy for a long time. I also notched the AA a bit lower to 58% equities.

 

[Andre1969]

I just realized something... the Christmas Eve 2018 - Christmas Eve 2019 is most likely my biggest ever one year jump in investible assets.

On 12/24/18, I bottomed out at $1,458,779. Normally I only keep track of the last number of the month, but saw fit to hold on to that one.
On 12/24/19, I was at $1,951,615.
That's in increase of $492,836...a stone's throw from a half million!
Does that mean it's time to utter the first half of that phrase that Jed Clampett used to say, that ended in "-Doggies" ?

 

[RobLJ]

Yea, we took advantage to install the solar panels, then buy the Chevy Bolt.

This almost doubled the minimum budget, but kept the spend to about 3.5% (since I'm still working part-time). I told DW if any other big optional spending is on the horizon, we should do it early this year; we're already putting in wood floors downstairs with the tax credit on the solar panels.

I always base my Jan annual withdrawal on year end portfolio value. Which means we took a cut in income in Jan 2019, but expect a big raise this coming Jan knocking on wood....

But our budget is independent of our income. We don’t immediately ratchet up our spending and often bank most of the excess. Spending changes are more gradual.

But I tell you, if there were some big ticket item you were waiting on - this would seem to be a good time.

 

[pb4uski]

The increase in my portfolio since the end of August... the last 4 months of appreciation... exceeds my mortgage.... so I'm paying off my mortgage.

 

[RetireAge50]

The increase in my portfolio since the end of August... the last 4 months of appreciation... exceeds my mortgage.... so I'm paying off my mortgage.

Going to the dark side...

 

[Another Reader]

The increase in my portfolio since the end of August... the last 4 months of appreciation... exceeds my mortgage.... so I'm paying off my mortgage.

The top is in!

 

[W2R]

The increase in my portfolio since the end of August... the last 4 months of appreciation... exceeds my mortgage.... so I'm paying off my mortgage.

Congratulations!

Yesterday was my all time high for portfolio-plus-bank-accounts total. Again. Imagine that. I am trying hard not to expect that every single day.... And I am trying really hard not to crow about it or sound like I am bragging. If you all knew how bad off I was during my first half century of life, you'd understand why it is so mind boggling to me to have this happening now. It's like I entered an alternate universe or something. (cue: Theme from The Twilight Zone).

I don't know what I am going to do with the excess! But I have one idea. Much to my surprise I like the recliner that I bought last summer, and which is my first one. I have been giving it a lot of unduly hard usage while going through knee surgery recovery, and I suspect it may fall apart from this misuse before too long. Even if it doesn't, it would be fun to have two. So, I might shop around for another, and see what is available if I am willing to spend the Big Bux on some sort of more luxurious, extremely sturdy version of my present el-cheapo electric, dual motor lift recliner.

 

[NW-Bound]

Just to give you an idea of why I am so dumbfounded, and won't shut up about it: the increase in that total since the beginning of 2019 is more than 11 times the amount I have spent from my portfolio during that same time span.

Well, that's just silly!! Obviously I've got to get busy and spend more, quickly!

Our ratio is about 9X, and we are pulling more cash to spend next year - mainly some extra projects around the house that we can enjoy for a long time. I also notched the AA a bit lower to 58% equities.

Hmmm... You made me look.

It's 12x for me. This means that my WR is 1/13 of the total gain.

Darn! This is the best gain I have had since I started to track expenses since 2011.

This certainly cannot be sustained.

 

[street]

Now I had to look. Mine is 48X my withdrawals so far this year. Wow, the gain to date is unreal.

 

[Another Reader]

Just curious - how much are you all up since the peak in January 2018? For me, the growth is much lower when compared to that date.

My rentals increased in value significantly this year and actually contributed more to the increase in net worth than did the paper assets. Should we have another year like this one, I would be in striking distance of a major milestone. We won't, I'm sure, but it's fun to think about.

The RMD's from the inherited IRA's look like they will increase more than I would like due to the increase in value and a decrease of one in the divisor. More taxes to pay, and less left in that pot when the market drops.

On to 2020!