For the first time ever I sold all my stocks

What inflation? :D



Hello Honda Motorcycle dealer, I would like to purchase new tires and have them installed on my 2 dual sport motorcycles. Ok no problem, that will be $822.35. Me, gulp, here is my credit card.

Or at Costco recently, your total is $450, wait what? We didn’t get a tv or anything.
 
The behavioral finance folks identify a couple of human behaviors that are very relevant to the buy/sell/hold anguish in this thread. Basically both the "endowment effect" and our genetic aversion to losses can lead to suboptimal investment decisions.

For an example of the endowment affect here's a thought experiment: Assume that all of your positions are sold instantaneously when the market opens Monday morning. You can buy them back with no loss or gain any time that day. Will you be buying 100% of them back? If the answer is "no," then the endowment effect may be clouding your judgment. The best place to learn about this is Richard Thaler's book "Misbehaving" but here is a Cliff's Notes version: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect

If you have ever said (all of us probably have) "I'll sell that stock as soon as it gets back to what I paid for it," your genetically-programmed aversion to losses is affecting your investment decisions. Thaler, again, is the best place to understand but Wikipedia comes through: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

Another way these effects are sometimes countered is to observe that every day you "hold" a stock, you are effectively deciding that it is a "buy" at that day's price. IOW there is really no "hold" position at all. Your position is either "buy" or "sell."

If you're interested in this kind of stuff, Jason Zweig's "Your Money & Your Brain" will clue you into the neurological influences on investment decision making. More: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/08/your-brain-on/

We are a lot less rational than we think we are. Even when we think we are remembering this.

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Another example is the Dollar Cost Average vs Lump Sum. Most studies I've seen show that it's better to do a lump sum buy into the market instead of Dollar Cost Average. But, if I'm sitting on a couple of million in cash and want an 80/20 allocation am I going to dump $1.6 million into the market Monday? Heck no! Especially in this market.
 
Wonder how many people bailed out when the market was falling, didn't buy back it and are now kicking themselves? Just wondering and probably no one would admit to it as everyone is a market Samurai these days.

I bailed a chunk, not everything, when the market recovered a fair bit. Not at the top, but enough that I felt comfortable shifting my AA at the time.

Of course, had I waited a few weeks, I'd have more money, but I'm not kicking myself. I wasn't trying to time, I was trying to take myself out of the game for a while. And the conditions that caused me to step to the sidelines are still all there: uncertainty, no real reason connection between the markets and reality, and the belief there are still many shoes to drop.

Its gonna be a few months before I'll find out if I'm wrong or not. If that means I am already missing the first few months of the next bull run so be it!
 
Another example is the Dollar Cost Average vs Lump Sum. Most studies I've seen show that it's better to do a lump sum buy into the market instead of Dollar Cost Average. But, if I'm sitting on a couple of million in cash and want an 80/20 allocation am I going to dump $1.6 million into the market Monday? Heck no! Especially in this market.


I agree. Cash is king. Billionaire investors such as Warren Buffet and Jeffrey Gundlach have increased their cash position. The market is having a rally lately because the government is flooding the market with liquidity. However, this means the rally is debt based. The market risk is high since there are wide spread bankruptcies, high unemployment and no vaccine with a potential of a second wave of infections potentially may cause a second shutdown. The government can't bail out everyone and this was demonstrated when the government allow Lehman brothers to fold. Some people do not know how to manage the market risk. Apparently you do. Good for you. People need to take their "own" holistic view and assessment of the market risk.....and not depend on someone's say-so or someone's else strategy which may be wrong.
 
exactly......also, CD's do pay interest; in fact my CD's are actually higher % than inflation...so yes...capital preservation
Do you spend only the real interest on CDs and reinvest the inflation portion? I have a friend who spends all the interest he is paid and still thinks he is preserving capital for the next generation.
 
Is making less return than inflation really capital preservation?

There are many different types of capital preservation: CDs, money market, US treasuries which all earn interest while being safe.

People who worry about inflation and not knowing about CD, money market, and US treasuries is taking a HUGE risk leaving their money in the stock market during this pandemic.

I suggest looking at Warren Buffet's cash position in Berkshire's portfolio in the May 5, 2020 article below: My own cash position is also in US treasuries. Warren Buffet is not too worried about inflation:
_____________________________________________________
Warren Buffett's $128 Billion Question, Answered

Did Buffett use the fastest bear market correction in history to put some of Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard to work?

May 5, 2020 at 6:06AM

On Wall Street, there may not be a more revered investor than Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett. Since the 1950s, Buffett has used his investing prowess to grow his net worth from $10,000 to almost $74 billion. Keep in mind that this figure doesn't account for the tens of billions the Oracle of Omaha has donated to charities over the years. He's also generated close to $400 billion in value for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders over the past five-plus decades.
Suffice it to say that when Buffett speaks, Wall Street listens – and over this past weekend he did a lot of speaking. That's because Saturday, May 2, 2020, marked the release of Berkshire's first-quarter operating results, as well as the company's annual shareholder meeting.
There were obviously a lot of questions on the minds of investors heading into this meeting, such as how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) would affect Buffett's roughly five dozen fully owned businesses. But one question stood head and shoulders above all else heading into this past weekend's earnings release and annual shareholder meeting: Did Buffett and his team put the company's near-record $128 billion cash hoard to work?

That question has finally been answered.

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett at his company's annual shareholder meeting.

Buffett's near-record cash pile has grown even larger

Following the release of Berkshire Hathaway's Q1 2020 report, we can see that the company's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investment in U.S. Treasury Bills has (drum roll)... grown to an all-time record $137.2 billion.

Putting aside Treasury-bond buying and selling activity, Berkshire's cash flows in the first quarter show that his company purchased $4.003 billion in equity securities and sold or redeemed $2.166 billion of equity securities. In other words, Berkshire was a net buyer of equities in the first quarter, but only put a total of $1.837 billion to work despite the stock market face-planting 34% in a 33-calendar-day stretch. Considering that Berkshire's investment portfolio was worth over $190 billion, as of this past weekend, and the company has tens of billions in value based on the five dozen or so companies it fully owns, $1.837 billion in net purchases is a drop in the bucket for the fastest bear market correction in history.

What's more, while discussing Berkshire's operational performance and other matters prior to the question and answer session, Buffett posted a slide of Berkshire's investment activity for the month of April. In total, Berkshire purchased $426 million in equities while selling $6.509 billion in stock (primarily airlines). This will, in all likelihood, increase Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard even more.
 
Warren Buffet is not too worried about inflation:
_____________________________________________________

Honestly, If I had the funds that Buffett has at his age, inflation would not even be a slight worry to me. I'd be trying to figure out how to spend/distribute it instead.
 
To me the light at the end of the tunnel is all the people that got out and will get back in supporting a rising stock market.

I would tend to agree with this. If there is an excess of cash on the sidelines waiting to be deployed, any significant market dips will quickly be filled in by these buyers and support higher prices until the buyers are exhausted. But, that's a big if....I really don't know anything...but what I do know, with certainty, is there will be another event at some time down the road that will roil the market yet once again.
 
There is a really good book I would like to recommend for you to read that may give you some different insight and opinions. Maybe not, but it's a good read anyway. Hope you enjoy your retirement, however you choose to approach it.:flowers:

How To Retire Happy, Wild and Free by Ernie J. Zelinski

That is a good book --I read it when it first came out --maybe 10 years ago? It would have been good to have read when I retired at age 50 but that was 18 years ago so the book had not been published yet. Thanks for the reminder of that book--I might still see if I have a copy somewhere. I would get it from our public library but our library is still closed, I wish they would open for at least book pick ups.
 
Hello Honda Motorcycle dealer, I would like to purchase new tires and have them installed on my 2 dual sport motorcycles. Ok no problem, that will be $822.35. Me, gulp, here is my credit card.

...

5 months ago, your motocycle dealer would have charged you $850.00 since they knew everybody would be crowding the store buying stuff. :LOL:
 
Lots of people including myself are pretty open about it. Is it possible you are making this assumption without having read thru the comments?


Yep, more than happy to admit to reducing equities. I’ve posted, as others have, openly about this. But some like to think that we’ll somehow regret our choices.

Personally, I want to see at least a full quarter of corporate earnings before increasing my equity exposure. It might take more than one quarter, not sure about that yet. I am happy that markets are “stable”, but to me it doesn’t make sense. If at the end we are at new highs, that’s fine with me. I still think there’s a disconnect between the markets and economic reality.

I hope I’m wrong. I don’t want to see massive sustained unemployment and the impact of that on people’s lives and the economy. That can take us years to recover. If I lose in equity gains because I was wrong in this regard, then that would be great.
 
Yep, more than happy to admit to reducing equities. I’ve posted, as others have, openly about this. But some like to think that we’ll somehow regret our choices.

I reduced my stake in Apple by 25% when it was 302. No regrets since I bought that stock when it was 60 (then it raised to 700, split 7 ways and it's 318 right now). I still have a boatload - probably way more than I should if I were to stick to the balanced portfolios - but it's thanks to that exposure that I'm up 5% this year. All my ETFs except one are down for the year. My other equities are dividend paying long term holds so while they're down a bit, I'm ok with it.
 
I will admit to a small amount of FOMO as the market has rebounded from March lows.... at the time bailed I conceded that I might not be right.

I wonder how much of the recent rally is due to FOMO from institutions and individuals.

The thing I am curious about is will the market anticipate a vaccine or does that little gem of news get dropped on the market by surprise?
 
I dunno... given the various steps that a vaccine has to go through even with this expedited process I have a hard time seeing how it will be a surprise.
 
Im still glad I got out. My spidey sense is signaling a perfect storm, but I'll take no joy if it happens. In fact I hope I'm very wrong.

I just don't see any sustained recovery any time soon. The up coming election had me worried, (I expect craziness) even before the virus, and now with the virus, civil unrest, the threat of a second wave, a strong hurricane season predicted, the market on a sugar high, blah, blah, blah, and well I'll just sit this one out for a while. :popcorn:
 
Im still glad I got out. My spidey sense is signaling a perfect storm, but I'll take no joy if it happens. In fact I hope I'm very wrong.

I just don't see any sustained recovery any time soon. The up coming election had me worried, (I expect craziness) even before the virus, and now with the virus, civil unrest, the threat of a second wave, a strong hurricane season predicted, the market on a sugar high, blah, blah, blah, and well I'll just sit this one out for a while. :popcorn:


with a strong believe like that you could short sell the market.
 
The fear of losing money far exceeds the joy of making money.

This has been tested extensively in psychological studies. On average the actual pain from a loss comes close to 2-1 verses the equivalent gain.
 
with a strong believe like that you could short sell the market.

I'm more into watching the market from a distance, and enjoying what I have. This last bull run has left me fat n happy. For me selling short, buying options or whatever is just taking on more stress. I'm reminded of the old saying "hogs get slaughtered". I'll just sit this dance out, thank you. :)
 
Pb4uski,
You obviously do not understand the concept of investing sir. Capital preservation is good but selling 100% in a correction is a very poor strategy.
 
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Pb4uski,
You obviously do not understand the concept of investing sir. Capital preservation is good but selling 100% in a correction is a very poor strategy.

Time will tell whether it was selling into a correction or a depression my friend. Let's check back in 12-24 months and see. In any event, I can afford it so no worries.

Besides, I don't see short selling as investing... to me investing is putting down money in the hopes that the company will have earnings and distribute it to shareholders in dividends or higher value... short selling is just a form of gambling. Just because someone is bearish doesn't necessarily mean they would sell short... they might just stand pat and buy low later on. For many of us it isn't all out making a buck like it seems to be for you. Good luck to you.
 
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Pb4uski,
You obviously do not understand the concept of investing sir. Capital preservation is good but selling 100% in a correction is a very poor strategy.

Selling your positions in the face of a big downturn can be looked at as locking in your gains after the big run up.

Short selling? That's gambling, not investing.
 
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