Muni Bond (and Muni Bond Fund) Discussion

[njhowie]

Bond market doubts Fed's ability to thread the needle

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-market-fed-recession-risks-191844097.html

We (some of us) saw this coming.

 

[Owenliruna]

I used the last of my cash allocated to my ladder earlier this week. Bought 20, 2029, 4.4% double tax free muni’s.
I doubled the yield of my ladder since March. I have $25,000 maturing next month and about $130,000 more maturing into Fall. Yields might be higher then, but I sorta doubt it. I might be very happy with what I have, locking in some of these higher yields under 10 years.

How possible could you really do that I try as much to get there but I keep falling apart

 

[aja8888]

Bond market doubts Fed's ability to thread the needle

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-market-fed-recession-risks-191844097.html

We (some of us) saw this coming.

A lot of wishful thinking in that article by the wall street traders who are going to get creamed when rates go further up and stocks slide down. Powell's at the point of no return.....higher interest rates and QT for everybody.

 

[njhowie]

A lot of wishful thinking in that article by the wall street traders who are going to get creamed when rates go further up and stocks slide down. Powell's at the point of no return.....higher interest rates and QT for everybody.

Powell only has control over short term rates. Market controls everything else. He's simply going to drive an inverted yield curve which will further lead to a recession.

It's not just Wall Street traders who've been buying up bonds and fixed income - look at the posts here. Folks have been flocking to lock in their 3% and higher yields.

Lastly, the market looks forward. Powell may well get to 3% or higher. But the market is looking beyond that and what comes next. Depending how deep a recession he wants to throw the country in to, he's going to be lowering rates just as quickly. Other economists are already going on record that rates will have to be lowered in 2023.

We'll see how it plays out. Should longer term rates move higher, great - I want to lock in more before this is all over.

 

[COcheesehead]

How possible could you really do that I try as much to get there but I keep falling apart

A few weeks ago there were still bonds like that available. Now you have to go longer in duration because yields have dropped.

Over my investing lifetime, I have bought hundreds of bonds. It’s almost intuitive now, but it all starts with buying a single bond. It gets easier and your confidence grows.

 

[Born2Fish]

Just got my first interest payment for my first Muni bond. Man, I LOVE it when the money just comes in on every payment date!!!

 

[jazz4cash]

Just got my first interest payment for my first Muni bond. Man, I LOVE it when the money just comes in on every payment date!!!

HOORAY!! I remember the feeling of that first tax-free interest payment. You will smile again at tax time.

 

[njhowie]

Just got my first interest payment for my first Muni bond. Man, I LOVE it when the money just comes in on every payment date!!!

Congrats! It's a nice feeling.

 

[COcheesehead]

Its even a better feeling when the monthly interest payments are more than you need to live on.

 

[Born2Fish]

Its even a better feeling when the monthly interest payments are more than you need to live on.

I bet that’s a great feeling.

 

[njhowie]

9.48% effective yield...for 6 days. Money didn't have any better uses so what the heck.

27.9% annual before the $1/CD commission.

 

[jazz4cash]

So did you buy them all? Leave any for the rest of us? Just kidding.

 

[njhowie]

Purchased muni this morning. Then the phone rang about an hour ago - dealer claims mistake. Same old, same old...

 

[COcheesehead]

Purchased muni this morning. Then the phone rang about an hour ago - dealer claims mistake. Same old, same old...

I’ve had buy orders canceled that should not have been canceled, but never had one rescinded. Wow.

 

[njhowie]

I’ve had buy orders canceled that should not have been canceled, but never had one rescinded. Wow.

Can you imagine if you hit the buy or sell button and then afterwards claimed it was a mistake and asked the broker to reverse it? How loudly would they laugh?

 

[COcheesehead]

Can you imagine if you hit the buy or sell button and then afterwards claimed it was a mistake and asked the broker to reverse it? How loudly would they laugh?

No lie.

 

[jazz4cash]

So my home state of MD has decided to shake things up by offering a series of 30 yr zero coupon bonds. Home state bonds generally get A2 or better ratings and the yields reflect that. I’ve reached for yield by going out 20 yrs and buying high rated county bonds with good coupons. Most new issues here have decent coupons but the premium pricing crushes the yield. I never understood that part. Anyway these are not issues that I would normally be attracted to (Stadium bonds lumped in with public school issues). The expected pricing yields 5% but 30 yrs is just a bit too far out for me. I hate the way Fido assumes 37% rate to estimate taxable equivalent. Maybe I’ll nibble.

 

[njhowie]

I think it's good to steer clear of new issues as you have no leverage. They set the prices, you take it or leave it. In the secondary market, you are able to pick and choose. Generally, the yields are going to be better, because everyone could simply subscribe for the new issue. So the secondary market is competing with the primary in that sense. As you know, you are able to bid in the secondary market, so there is even more opportunity for higher yields if you've done your research and can identify issues that are potentially mispriced and a dealer that is looking to unload inventory.

 

[jazz4cash]

That comparison of new vs. secondary makes sense. I’d be 95 when these zeros mature. No income in the meantime unless I sell. My very first muni was a new issue priced at par with 22 yr maturity. I think that experience set my expectations wrt new issues. I took a tax hit on an IRA distribution to get the bond into a taxable account. A regional broker sold it to me on a cold call but never came up with anything of value after that.

 

[njhowie]

Fidelity is once again having their $100 bonus offer for opening an account and depositing $50 in it. This is available for new or existing customers who have not previously done the offer.

Last year I was able to do this for DW, but mine was screwed up in the process. I just signed up for it again for myself, and it looks like it will work this time.

Since I now control mom's accounts, I'll do one for her as well.

https://www.fidelity.com/go/starter-pack

 

[njhowie]

10-year treasury yield cratering - currently 2.74%.

 

[COcheesehead]

10-year treasury yield cratering - currently 2.74%.

Good stuff if you bought the recent muni yield spike. I used up all my maturing funds cash to buy everything I could 45 ish days ago.

 

[njhowie]

Good stuff if you bought the recent muni yield spike. I used up all my maturing funds cash to buy everything I could 45 ish days ago.

We just sold mom's car this week and closed on selling her condo last week, so we have a lot of funds to deploy. We did pretty well this week and last between CDs, Treasuries, and munis. I did find a few good deals for the munis. Will be interesting to see what happens next week after the rate hike - however much it will be.

 

[COcheesehead]

We just sold mom's car this week and closed on selling her condo last week, so we have a lot of funds to deploy. We did pretty well this week and last between CDs, Treasuries, and munis. I did find a few good deals for the munis. Will be interesting to see what happens next week after the rate hike - however much it will be.

I am assuming and we know how problematic assuming is, that short term rates will rise and intermediate and long term will show little movement. We shall see.

 

[njhowie]

I am assuming and we know how problematic assuming is, that short term rates will rise and intermediate and long term will show little movement. We shall see.

As I've pointed out over the past several months - 3.0% for the 10-year seems to be the resistance point. It can get there and even above for a short period, but then it gets smacked back down. We'll see if that continues to hold - I believe it will. I think after the hike, we'll see it move higher again for a short while before going back down. I'm hoping that's what happens once again, with some short-term volatility and we'll get another short period of higher yields for new purchases.