Only a little under 30 points before the S&P500 hits the 200 day MA

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Thought I'd bump this and point out that this metric would have taken you out of the market in late 2007 at around 1480.

We've fallen dramatically away from the 200 day moving average, so it looks like it'll be a while before we get back to it. In the 2000-2002 drop the decline was pretty gentle, with the 200 day MA following it pretty closely down and back up. Not this time.

This would make it three out of the last three bear markets that this metric worked almost perfectly...it does leave a little money on the table on both ends, not nicking either the lowest low or the highest high...but dang if you'd followed this rule you'd be doing pretty dang well.

Could it really be this easy?

 

[dex]

...but dang if you'd followed this rule you'd be doing pretty dang well.

Could it really be this easy?

I think we got complacent and forgot the lessons of the past - I know I did and I studied them.

Then again not many though it would get this bad - maybe a shallow recession - so stay in and ride it out so you don't miss the upturn.

"The market teaches you to loose."

 

[Lsbcal]

CFB, so have you got a technical way to time a rebalance into equities? Looking at past recessions I see since the 70's that the SP500 low was around 3 to 19 months after the start of a recession (as defined by NBER). In May Buffet was calling this a recession but no official one until 2 qtrs of negative GNP.

 

[al_bundy]

when you put up a chart make sure you have it show the macd. in 1973, 1929 and 2002 the lower low was made on a higher low on the macd indicator which is nothing more than an average of 12-26 prior trading periods. best indicator of capitulation ever. also noticed that if you check the psychological indicators like put/call ratio or VIX they usually spike on the first low and then the lower low is made on lower fear levels. probably means the retail investors are panicking and bailing out

trying to time it by so many months into the bear or recession is useless

 

[al_bundy]

Safe Haven | How We Called the Stock Market Crash of 2008 To the Day

supposedly these guys called it right a week or two before the crash

 

[samclem]

Safe Haven | How We Called the Stock Market Crash of 2008 To the Day

supposedly these guys called it right a week or two before the crash

Wow.

This lady picked 5 of 6 numbers correctly to win a million dollars.

Same degree of skill.

[SIZE=+2]Connecticut Great-Grandmother Wins $1 Million Powerball Prize!
[/SIZE]

Waiting in line at the Shaw’s Grocery customer service desk in Fairfield, Rose Marks of Bridgeport almost decided to step away before buying a Powerball Quick Pick ticket for the Saturday, September 20 drawing. But, “my feet didn’t move,” Rose told Connecticut Lottery officials. Instead, she waited for the one ticket she planned to buy, a $2 Powerball with PowerPlay ticket. Rose’s patience paid off with a $1,000,000 prize for matching 5 of the 6 numbers drawn that night.

 

[TromboneAl]

I hope she uses some of that $1 million to get a better bra.

 

[Moemg]

CFB, I will give you a lifetime membership to bacon of the month if you PM me the next time it's time to get out !

 

[samclem]

I hope she uses some of that $1 million to get a better bra.

That IS better! You should have seen the "before" picture.