Portfolio value before and after ER

[SecondCor521]

1.35 years, 124. 90/10 VTSAX/VBTLX, very small inheritance received (3 out of the 124), very small WR (net 0.3%).

 

[RockyMtn]

Eight years on 7/1/17 and am at 143%.

 

[texcurtis]

2.5 years. 114.

 

[audreyh1]

Only REWahoo and MichaelB are doing it right with the long-timers so far (probably spending enough). If you're inflation adjusted significantly "up", and you've been retired a dozen or more years, are you really spending enough? Or maybe the thread only attracts the conservative types.

Well, since I was 39 when I retired, and looking at a likely long retirement, potentially 50+ years, I wasn't so aggressive at spending those first 10 years, even though we did have a few of big ticket items (fancy RV, new house, cars).

But inflation also plays a big part. Inflation from Aug 1999 through April 2017 was a little over 46%, so that cuts in quite a bit to the growth - taking 204 down to 158.

I often compare my net worth to Jan 1, 2000, instead of Aug 1999, as that is a higher bar. Then we're looking at 175 for 17.5 years, or 130 after inflation. That 30% real growth seems far more modest. I guess Aug to Dec 1999 was a real barn burner (yes, we all know that it was).

Frankly, I'd be thrilled with breaking even after inflation (100 real). This hasn't always been the case. 2008 sent our real net worth growth negative, and it didn't recover until Spring 2012.

So - portfolios that seem way ahead now, even in real terms, can get cut hard by a long period of stagnation or a nasty 2008/2009 type market. Things happen to be way up the past few years. I'm more comfortable with my spending lagging the growth in my investments, especially as I'm still in my 50s, and our budget is very generous (we do not cut corners). As we age I expect to be more aggressive at spending down. Not necessarily on ourselves, but we have lots or other people and causes to contribute to. And you never know what kind of wrench might be thrown in the works and require a large outlay.

 

[bbbamI]

Eight years, three months...130%. AA.....35/56/9

 

[nvestysly]

Just under 6 years... retired in July 2011. Our withdrawal rate based on the initial balance is right at 3.6%. Overall balance has grown to 144% of that initial balance in the bull market of the past several years.

 

[audreyh1]

If folks want to look at real growth over their retirement, this tool is handy. Then you subtract the inflation number (given in %) from your growth. I usually just enter in $1 for the starting amount, because I'm only interested in the % inflation result. https://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_calculators/Cumulative_Inflation_Calculator.aspx

For a given period, start with the prior month. For example, for inflation from say Jan 1 2012 to the most recent CPI, use the range Dec 2011 to April 2017. It gives an answer like:

Total inflation from December 2011
to April 2017 is 8.35%
$1 after inflation is $1.08​

Data through May is not available yet, but should be next week (6/14). The calculator is usually updated by the end of the day that CPI is announced.

 

[street]

Retired 14 months ago and @ 111%.

 

[Avalon]

11 years, 121%

 

[donheff]

I ERed 12 years ago but DW didn't fully pull the plug until 2010 so I track from that date. When I adjust to remove the proceeds from my weekend house sale it is 1.46 not adjusted for inflation.

 

[Car-Guy]

This would have been an interesting question to ask in 2009 for retired folks and then compare it to today's numbers.

 

[REWahoo]

This would have been an interesting question to ask in 2009 for retired folks and then compare it to today's numbers.

Yep. Instead of 110 my number would have been closer to 70, only four years after retirement. That situation really interfered with my daily nap.

 

[MichaelB]

This would have been an interesting question to ask in 2009 for retired folks and then compare it to today's numbers.

Yep. Instead of 110 my number would have been closer to 70, only four years after retirement. That situation really interfered with my daily nap.

No kidding. I don't remember the number, but it probably was close to REWahoo's. At the time I was too busy throwing up for a daily nap.

 

[audreyh1]

This would have been an interesting question to ask in 2009 for retired folks and then compare it to today's numbers.

Yep, in 2009 we were just below where we had started ~10 years prior. If you adjusted for inflation it was far worse!!!

 

[bradaz2488]

Just past the 4 year mark. Number is 113 with an average WR of 2.5% and AA of 50/25/25. Biggest purchase was a car, but have been under budget every year.

 

[audreyh1]

In late Feb 2009, our net worth was down 40% from the peak in Oct 2007, and down 6.5% from the starting value in Aug 1999.

Taking into account inflation (i.e. in real terms), in Feb 2009, our net worth was down 33% from when we retired!

It had recovered (broken even) in real terms by Dec 2009.

 

[CyclingInvestor]

10.6 years, 135. Spending more than I planned to on discretionary items, average WR about 5%

 

[Danmar]

Interesting question and difficult to calculate for me. Retired almost 11 years (that's the easy part). My actual investment portfolio is to 530% from retirement but that's misleading as I had uncashed employee options when I retired. If you include the after tax value of these in the opening balance my current balance is up to 132% of the adjusted opening balance. But I also purchased 2 vacation type properties for cash during this period which I still own. If I add the value of those back to my portfolio I would be at 165% probably about 145% after inflation ( inflation very low in Canada). Thinking a little more about this, I think a good goal would be to keep the portfolio at this level (inflation adjusted) to pass on to my heir.

If I had calculated this in March 2009 it would have been around 25%.

 

[Car-Guy]

In late Feb 2009, our net worth was down 40% from the peak in Oct 2007, and down 6.5% from the starting value in Aug 1999.

Taking into account inflation (i.e. in real terms), in Feb 2009, our net worth was down 33% from when we retired!

It had recovered (broken even) in real terms by Dec 2009.

My data from the 2009 time period showed my numbers were up a little due to my extremely conservative investments. (No equities at all in 2008/09) Today most of my money is still in what I consider conservative investments, but I have placed some of my more discretionary dollars in equities over the past few years. Altogether, at this point, I'm up about 15% since I retired.

I'm not a LBYM type, so that's not to bad I guess.

 

[ejman]

Thought it might be interesting for folks who have ER' d to state how many years they have been retired and how their portfolio values today compare to the values when you retired (using a value of 100 for when you retired)

For me. 4.75 yrs. 129

15.5 years - 218

 

[ejman]

If folks want to look at real growth over their retirement, this tool is handy. Then you subtract the inflation number (given in %) from your growth. I usually just enter in $1 for the starting amount, because I'm only interested in the % inflation result. https://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_calculators/Cumulative_Inflation_Calculator.aspx

For a given period, start with the prior month. For example, for inflation from say Jan 1 2012 to the most recent CPI, use the range Dec 2011 to April 2017. It gives an answer like:

Data through May is not available yet, but should be next week (6/14). The calculator is usually updated by the end of the day that CPI is announced.

I find it very difficult to apply CPI statistics to my personal situation - particularly since retirement 15 years ago. I would expect my personal expenditures to roughly track the CPI but that's not the case at all.

My expenditures have roughly remained the same at a 60-70K annual level and my standard of living feels about the same - buy about the same things ( including cars and vacations) eat out as often etc. I really don't know why this is so. Since there is so much freedom in retirement maybe subconsciously I adjust and substitute?

 

[HFWR]

FIREd for 1.5 years, ~106 after two 4% withdrawals.

 

[sengsational]

Well, since I was 39 when I retired, and looking at a likely long retirement, potentially 50+ years...

39 is really outside of the band I had been considering. I was thinking ER was 55 +/- when I made my comment.

Just for fun, I plotted the data using the CPI numbers from an "Irrational Exuberance" spreadsheet I already had.

 

[David1961]

39 is really outside of the band I had been considering. I was thinking ER was 55 +/- when I made my comment.

Just for fun, I plotted the data using the CPI numbers from an "Irrational Exuberance" spreadsheet I already had.

Isnt this similar to the graph FIRECalc creates when they compare success outcomes for the different scenarios? How much money you have leftover after so many years?

 

[audreyh1]

I find it very difficult to apply CPI statistics to my personal situation - particularly since retirement 15 years ago. I would expect my personal expenditures to roughly track the CPI but that's not the case at all.

My expenditures have roughly remained the same at a 60-70K annual level and my standard of living feels about the same - buy about the same things ( including cars and vacations) eat out as often etc. I really don't know why this is so. Since there is so much freedom in retirement maybe subconsciously I adjust and substitute?

Sure, but that is how I can compare my long-term investment performance with the models.

My spending has not tracked the CPI either.