S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

[Out-to-Lunch]

Last year I guessed 4512. So this year I am guessing:

4512!

 

[braumeister]

4560

 

[38Chevy454]

More losses in first part of the year with small recovery by year end, resulting in 3975.

 

[SecondCor521]

My standard guess is up 10% in line with historical averages:

3839.5 * 1.1 = 4223.45

With the "death of equities" attitude many seem to have at the moment, I wouldn't be surprised by 20%:

3839.5 * 1.2 = 4607.40

 

[Beststash]

3506

 

[Hank]

3,369



Hope I'm wrong

 

[Freedom56]

3420

 

[latexman]

I like your style, Sir.

Halfway between 12/30/2022 close and its peak.

 

[MichealKnight]

2023

4270

 

[retire2020]

5325

 

[yhoomajor]

4001.28

I think we get a little bounce up early in the year, then some selling around Spring time, Summer lull. Market wakes up trying to get back up in Fall. But then reality sets in the market - that we are following JAPAN!!

 

[Gumby]

Last year I guessed 4512. So this year I am guessing:

4512!

Good idea. So I'll go with 5123, same as I did last year. One of these years I'll be right.

 

[Born2Fish]

3650.22

 

[24601NoMore]

Assuming we get the recession many / most expect..

- 2023 Low: 3,000 - 3,200; possibly sub 3K

- 2023 end of year close: 3,600 (more blind optimism and SWAG than anything else)

That said, Lance Roberts at RIA Advisors did what I thought was a really well thought out analysis of different potential scenarios based on valuations, economic outcomes, etc. Better than most, IMHO and well worth the read for those interested..

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/valuation-math-suggests-difficult-markets-in-2023/

 

[Dtail]

Lots of optimism out there with some of these predictions. Believe the market will take out the 2022 lows over the next few months but could finish up slightly for the year, so 3993.

I am pretty much there too.

 

[SJhawkins]

4321!

Not sure how to fix the text size!

 

[Rowej]

Take out the lows

Lots of optimism out there with some of these predictions. Believe the market will take out the 2022 lows over the next few months but could finish up slightly for the year, so 3993.

I am with you in believing we will take out the lows before and new night, I am guessing the end of year at 3780, down another 2% from current price. It’s just a guess anyways, lol

 

[Taco]

Back to back down years are somewhat rare, so I'll guess we end 2023 up a bit...

4042

 

[Dash man]

4430

My guess has been run through the mini computer inside my head and is as good a prediction as my prediction of the Phillies winning the World Series in 2023.

 

[SloHan]

My SWAG is 4415 for 2023.

 

[freedom2022]

3,200

Recession is on the horizon. Market will react negatively.

 

[audreyh1]

It makes me feel much better having all these low numbers this time around. Last year was way too optimistic!

 

[tulak]

It makes me feel much better having all these low numbers this time around. Last year was way too optimistic!

And hopefully this year we are too pessimistic. It’d be great to see that are just as wrong in our predictions!

 

[audreyh1]

And hopefully this year we are too pessimistic. It’d be great to see that are just as wrong in our predictions!

Right, that’s what I meant - contrarian indicator.

 

[tulak]

Right, that’s what I meant - contrarian indicator.

Got it. I’m a bit slow tonight. [emoji4]