S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

Four trading days left. kgtest1 has remained in the lead since 12/13, even though the index has bounced around a bit, but has now returned to the Even Better Than The Real Thing division.

Anyone have historical data on how the index has done in the period between Christmas and New Years Day? :D
 
Well it’s usually part of the Santa Claus Rally which continues to the first trading day or two of Jan, but you never know.

Investopedia article about this “phenomenon”: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/santaclauseffect.asp
Historical Data

Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, coined the "Santa Claus Rally" in 1972. He defined the timeframe of the final five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year as the dates of the rally.

These seven days have historically shown higher stock prices 79.2% of the time, reflected in the S&P 500.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac compiled data during the 73 years from 1950 through 2022 and showed that a Santa Claus rally occurred 58 times (or roughly 80% of the time), with growth in the S&P 500 by 1.4%.
Click to expand...
 
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:)

audreyh1 said:
Well it’s usually part of the Santa Claus Rally which continues to the first trading day or two of Jan, but you never know.

Investopedia article about this “phenomenon”: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/santaclauseffect.asp
Click to expand...

Things that have ramifications for trillions of bucks all around the world and it's nicknamed for something that kids know is not real by the time they are teenagers.

Can't we update it. Something more mature.

"Squiggly Lines Rally" -- - signed, a GenX'er.... :)
 
Three trading days left in 2023, Jerry1 coasts into the lead, with kgtest1 and Ronbusa3 still close as well. Get that podcast ready... :D
 
And S&P500 closes at an all-time high. I have less than a 20% chance of winning this friendly competition, but indeed plenty to talk about on the pod cast.
 
All time high for S&P500 was 4818.62 on 1/4/22 according to CNBC app.

From Yahoo historical data:
Open, High, Low, Close, Adjusted Close, Volume
Jan 06, 20224,693.394,725.014,671.264,696.054,696.054,295,280,000
Jan 05, 20224,787.994,797.704,699.444,700.584,700.584,887,960,000
Jan 04, 20224,804.514,818.624,774.274,793.544,793.544,683,170,000
Jan 03, 20224,778.144,796.644,758.174,796.564,796.563,831,020,000
Dec 31, 20214,775.214,786.834,765.754,766.184,766.182,677,820,000
Dec 30, 20214,794.234,808.934,775.334,778.734,778.733,124,950,000
Dec 29, 20214,788.644,804.064,778.084,793.064,793.062,963,310,000
Dec 28, 20214,795.494,807.024,780.044,786.354,786.352,707,920,000
Dec 27, 20214,733.994,791.494,733.994,791.194,791.192,770,290,000
 
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audreyh1 said:
All time high for S&P500 was 4818.62 on 1/4/22 according to CNBC app.

From Yahoo historical data:
Open, High, Low, Close, Adjusted Close, Volume
Jan 06, 20224,693.394,725.014,671.264,696.054,696.054,295,280,000
Jan 05, 20224,787.994,797.704,699.444,700.584,700.584,887,960,000
Jan 04, 20224,804.514,818.624,774.274,793.544,793.544,683,170,000
Jan 03, 20224,778.144,796.644,758.174,796.564,796.563,831,020,000
Dec 31, 20214,775.214,786.834,765.754,766.184,766.182,677,820,000
Dec 30, 20214,794.234,808.934,775.334,778.734,778.733,124,950,000
Dec 29, 20214,788.644,804.064,778.084,793.064,793.062,963,310,000
Dec 28, 20214,795.494,807.024,780.044,786.354,786.352,707,920,000
Dec 27, 20214,733.994,791.494,733.994,791.194,791.192,770,290,000
Click to expand...

Whoops! ER always keeping me honest :) I apparently didn't look hard enough hehehe. Should have used AI !

Just under 1% with 3 days to go, I bet we break the record.
 
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Yes, but the highest close was 4796. That’s why I picked it.
 
They're neck and neck down the homestretch, with ronbusa3 charging hard on the outside! Hold on to your hats, folks.
 
Gumby said:
They're neck and neck down the homestretch, with ronbusa3 charging hard on the outside! Hold on to your hats, folks.
Click to expand...

Yeah, ronbusa3 pulled a Price is Right move on me. :LOL:
 
My bet is on Gumby to do the "Gumby slide" under the tag at home plate for the WIN!


I got money on it, literally
 
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Jerry1 said:
Yeah, ronbusa3 pulled a Price is Right move on me. :LOL:
Click to expand...

Hahaha. Yeah he did! You aren't supposed to tell them your strategy, sheesh Jerry save it for our famed podcast!

My thinking was we were gonna reach for the all time highs, but miss it by a fingernail. Kind of like the dude that is trying to win Amari an Njnja Warrior and he does all this epic stuff defying all sorts of physics in the process, only to make it to the infamous wall and come up just hanging on that thing but not being able to pull up and push the buzzer. ..
 
Well, "they" said it would be volatile the last week of the year. Up..and down...and up! Trying to push that all time high.

volatile.jpg
 
kgtest said:
Hahaha. Yeah he did! You aren't supposed to tell them your strategy, sheesh Jerry save it for our famed podcast!

My thinking was we were gonna reach for the all time highs, but miss it by a fingernail. Kind of like the dude that is trying to win Amari an Njnja Warrior and he does all this epic stuff defying all sorts of physics in the process, only to make it to the infamous wall and come up just hanging on that thing but not being able to pull up and push the buzzer. ..
Click to expand...

Of course the best part of this whole thing comes when I log on to my brokerage account. A good year indeed.
 
Gumby said:
They're neck and neck down the homestretch, with ronbusa3 charging hard on the outside! Hold on to your hats, folks.
Click to expand...


Two trading days left, Jerry1 holds the lead but Ronbusa3's charge has past kgtest into 2nd place, and still within reach of the prize!
 
audreyh1 said:
1 trading day left! Drum roll……………..
Click to expand...

Jerry1 is still in the lead. However, for the S&P 500 tomorrow:

- If it gains more than 0.30%, up to 3.71%, Ronbusa3 wins.

- If it gains more than 3.71%, up to 9.2%, Gumby wins. The only folks above that amount of gain are retire2020 and sengsational.

- If it loses more than 0.22%, down to 2.68%, kgtest wins.

- If it loses more than 2.68%, down to 4.77% braumeister wins. Below that amount of loss, a whole bunch of folks are in play.

So... who feels lucky, and in what direction? :)
 
It’s been pretty small moves last few days even though steadily gaining. We shall see!
 
audreyh1 said:
It’s been pretty small moves last few days even though steadily gaining. We shall see!
Click to expand...

I think this^^. It looks like everyone is already on vacation. I’m thinking a small movement in the range of plus or minus 10 points for tomorrow.
 
Revisited my first prediction and I'm revising it to 5200. Don't ask me why.
 
Eeerily similar feeling to "bar close" back in the college days lol. Is it going to end well, or will someone have a topsy turvy after a few too many?

Low volume with volatility is the norm for a typical Santa Claus rally which is IMHO what this is shaping up to be.

Likely a slight gain today like Jerry says, maybe less than a 10th of a percent?
 
Uh oh! Down over 0.4%.

Very volatile today.

Is somebody eating popcorn and watching the index?:LOL:
 
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