I concur with what seems to be the consensus that low interest rates and a supportive fed will continue to provide support for the market, until it doesn't (meteor strike, China invades Taiwan or someplace else, Nancy Pelosi announces she is carrying Mitch's love child)...
No professional investors that I read say the market is too hot, too expensive or not broad enough. ...
The question "where is the market going from here?" smacks of a desire to time the market. However, trimming a position that you believe, based on individual company or sector metrics has reached full value, isn't market timing to me...
Really it is kind of silly that "market timing" has such a negative rap around here. Every buy or sell decision is market timing to some degree. We buy when we expect an investment to go up and we sell when we expect it to go down. On the other side of every trade is someone who believes the opposite.The question "where is the market going from here?" smacks of a desire to time the market. However, trimming a position that you believe, based on individual company or sector metrics has reached full value, isn't market timing to me. The same goes for a position that has exceeded its assigned percentage in your AA. In either case, you might lose out on some potential additional gains, but you'll be able to sleep at night and never feel the need to ask the aforementioned question.
Not sure what you are asking. My point is simply that we cannot avoid market timing unless we don't trade. I am certainly not advocating the sort of large trades/large market timing that has historically gotten people into trouble. In a nutshell, my trading strategy remains like this:Gee OldShooter, are you turning over a new leaf in the new year?
This thread is full of lots of hope and lots of pessimism. What's missing is that the leaders we pick and the initiatives we support and promote will have a lot to do with our future at all levels, even for retirees.
We've been living off the spoils of the past for much of my life. One example - when I was a younger man the country got behind building an interstate highway system, and it transformed our economy. The deterioration of such infrastructure is not only sad to watch but dangerous. New initiatives around infrastructure, properly managed, would transform our economy, and change our future.
Cynicism is a popular habit, but not productive and not supportive of economic well-being at any level.
No professional investors that I read say the market is too hot, too expensive or not broad enough. On the contrary.
Does everyone agree the economy is not producing at its full potential?
What happens to equity markets when the economy is producing at full potential, whenever that may be? Will the market be higher, or lower?
I smile when I see someone who considers themselves to be a long term investor anguish over the fact that with a conventional mutual fund it’s typically a few hours of small random movements before we know our trade price.
I smile at the anguish over the $30 "free" Turbotax or not.
Indeed it has. But that's in regard to the domestic economy. What we don't know is whether the incoming administration will bleed off some of the recently created wealth based on that anticipation.The market has already anticipated the economy producing at full potential and then some.
The market has already anticipated the economy producing at full potential and then some.
Really it is kind of silly that "market timing" has such a negative rap around here. Every buy or sell decision is market timing to some degree. We buy when we expect an investment to go up and we sell when we expect it to go down. On the other side of every trade is someone who believes the opposite.
I smile when I see someone who considers themselves to be a long term investor anguish over the fact that with a conventional mutual fund it’s typically a few hours of small random movements before we know our trade price. DW and I made a low 7-figure trade on Thursday or Friday and I haven't even gone to look at the price. Our last trade with that asset was a couple of years ago.
From Liz Ann Sonders (Schwab):
So, I get the question all the time: What about inflation? Why haven’t we had inflation in light of all of this massive stimulus? And the answer is, well, we've had plenty of it, it's just been in asset prices, not in the real economy.
Me neither.... I don't know the answer to any of that ...
Except on Amazon only on Dec 26.Its more like $55 free or not.