which come from no-coiners
I guess I am a proud no-coiner. Old dog, no coiner. This is starting to get amusing. I guess your point is that only people who own bitcoin can possibly have valid opinions and insights into bit coin. I hope you see the obvious flaw in that logic.
BTC per se doesn't need any "SEC approval" to exist.
Of course not. But Americans can be barred from owning it. I don't see that happening but it is likely possible. Americans were barred from owning gold for decades and the courts upheld it.
Confiscation is probably not legal but a bar on ownership and the consequent mass sell-off would be devastating. I actually think anything like that is highly unlikely but the vast use of bitcoin in drug deals, ransomware, etc. leaves it vulnerable to racketeering laws and confiscation as proceeds of a criminal enterprise.
Prosecutor:"Mr. Andhappy, please prove that you obtained your bitcoins lawfully"
37: "I don't have to. They're mine and I have a right to own them"
Prosecutor: "Your Honor, please direct the witness to answer the question"
37: (now you have a choice, go to jail for contempt or answer truthfully) "I can't prove where I got them. The records are private"
Judge: "You have 10 days to produce the required records or your bitcoin will be confiscated." (sound of hammer)
You see, in the US we have a lot of crazy laws which you may not agree with (and you and I would probably agree with each other on this front). We have things like racketeering, civil (and criminal) forfeiture, tax evasion, and so forth where the gubmint CAN take you property if you operate too close to criminal activity. Let's say you bought a bitcoin from a ransomware attacker without knowing, perhaps through an exchange, you MAY be subject to confiscation. If each bitcoin can be individually traced, which seems to be the case through the public ledgers, then you are on the hook regardless of whether or not you knew who your counterparty was. Farfetched, absolutely. But possible, yes. So you are putting a lot of faith in the security of your fortune with these kinds of issues unsettled in the legal system.
You see, if you argue bitcoins are fungible (all the same like gold bullion coins) then the government can confiscate them by Congressional action and/or Executive Order. If they are not fungible (each one individually traceable) then you better be careful to trace the provenance of each one you buy.
A physical ETF is already being considered (see my earlier post on the GreyScale announcement). If that ever gets approved ... wow!
Why would you want to own an ETF that holds "physical" bitcoin? (or USD or Swiss Francs, or Euros for that matter) The fund will track the exchange rates and you will pay a management fee on top so you are guaranteed to lose. (Many might be thinking, money market funds and savings accounts but those put the money to use to earn a small return).
You should probably drop the term "investor." You are speculating. There is nothing wrong with that. I speculate on lots of things. But there is no underlying fundamental analysis to support the future value of a bitcoin. No one can say with any degree of certainty whether it will be $174,000 (double its current value) a year from now or $33,000 (half its current value) or something much higher or lower. Personally I don't see it going to zero and could easily see it double. But that is based on nothing more than gut feeling and I don't make investment decisions on gut feeling.
There is one thing for certain, almost no government likes bitcoin so it will be facing headwinds and legal attacks everywhere. They used to say "Don't fight the Fed." Bitcoin speculators are fighting all the central banks in the world and mos of the governments.