What was your COVID news for the day?

[ivinsfan]

The areas that are not social distancing are low population states. If NY, CA, LA, FL, etc had not started social distancing and shut things down ~4 weeks ago, and we'd all just gone around as normal, I can easily believe many multiples of the current stats.

What matrix are you using for this? Our state got an A but one county west of here on the SD border got an F because they didn't greatly reduce the amount of driving...a very, very rural county. In a county like that almost all jobs are considered essential. Very little general retail, little or no restaurants, or gyms, etc. ...if a service isn't considered essential most likely they don't have it.

I expect the traffic in our county to ramp up significantly in the next month.Seed trucks, fuel trucks, repair trucks. etc. I'm 14.5 miles from the nearest WalMart and have put less than 60 miles on my car in the last 3 weeks. ...

Certainly some people are not SD, but I wonder why the low population states are getting pointed out.

 

[Rianne]

The estimated number has gone way down, and there have been sections of the U.S. that still aren't practicing strict social distancing. What kind of models are being used to go from 1.2 million down to less than 90k? People seem to want to blame the lack of inaction around the world (and had we known earlier we would have responded earlier), but the medical experts were way off.

These are the statistics that frighten me:
Death rate from CV19 in U.S. is 3.56% based on actual data from hospitals. You cannot fake that.
Death rate from flu in U.S. is .11% based on high estimates.


The testing situation in the U.S. is a sham. There is not adequate testing, so these estimates may be way off because we have no idea how many people actually have CV19. In my area, patients are turned away from testing. Repeat, they will NOT test unless your situation is dire, you are showing dramatic symptoms.

Fact: The contagion (what makes one contagious) is much higher before symptoms show up.


https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ed-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo



"We made an interesting finding: at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, a significant proportion of the population, about 3%, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic. Our study established a valuable principle: testing of all citizens, whether or not they have symptoms, provides a way to control this pandemic."

 

[ugeauxgirl]

These are the statistics that frighten me:
Death rate from CV19 in U.S. is 3.56% based on actual data from hospitals. You cannot fake that.
Death rate from flu in U.S. is .11% based on high estimates.


The testing situation in the U.S. is a sham. There is not adequate testing, so these estimates may be way off because we have no idea how many people actually have CV19. In my area, patients are turned away from testing. Repeat, they will NOT test unless your situation is dire, you are showing dramatic symptoms.

Fact: The contagion (what makes one contagious) is much higher before symptoms show up.


https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ed-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo



"We made an interesting finding: at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, a significant proportion of the population, about 3%, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic. Our study established a valuable principle: testing of all citizens, whether or not they have symptoms, provides a way to control this pandemic."

The death rate is probably wildly inaccurate. In our family 11 people had the virus but only 2 got tested. The death rate you're quoting is only people who were tested who likely had severe symptoms. The true mortality rate for everyone infected is probably MUCH lower than that.

 

[dd564]

These are the statistics that frighten me:
Death rate from CV19 in U.S. is 3.56% based on actual data from hospitals. You cannot fake that.
Death rate from flu in U.S. is .11% based on high estimates.


The testing situation in the U.S. is a sham. There is not adequate testing, so these estimates may be way off because we have no idea how many people actually have CV19. In my area, patients are turned away from testing. Repeat, they will NOT test unless your situation is dire, you are showing dramatic symptoms.

Fact: The contagion (what makes one contagious) is much higher before symptoms show up.


https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ed-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo



"We made an interesting finding: at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, a significant proportion of the population, about 3%, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic. Our study established a valuable principle: testing of all citizens, whether or not they have symptoms, provides a way to control this pandemic."

Please clarify your death rate.
Are you saying it's 3% of the whole population?
3% of people who show signs?
3% of people tested as having COVID?
3% of hospital patients confirmed with COVID?

What is your 3% death rate?

Stats I have seen is in every country, less than 1% has gotten it (even Italy and Wuhan).
Of those who are infected, the death rate of them is anywhere from 5%-15% typically.

 

[Chuckanut]

Well, I hope the quarantine part works to lower R0 because nobody here is bothering with social distancing when they go out.

It's so bad our governor has now restricted how many people can be in a store at any one time:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241884686.html

No masks on employees either...or most customers.

Thanks for the tip. I will avoid NC when I return to traveling.

The state by state analysis of the statistics of this disease will be interesting to see when this is over.

 

[Rianne]

Please clarify your death rate.
Are you saying it's 3% of the whole population?
3% of people who show signs?
3% of people tested as having COVID?
3% of hospital patients confirmed with COVID?

What is your 3% death rate?

Stats I have seen is in every country, less than 1% has gotten it (even Italy and Wuhan).
Of those who are infected, the death rate of them is anywhere from 5%-15% typically.

This is the "math" I used. If you have a different method,please share.
U.S. 16,772/470,175 = 3.57% Death/Total Cases
Italy 18,279/143,626 = 12.73%


Actually, the numbers got scrambled in the copy/paste. Go to the website and do your own math.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

USA 470,175 +1,609 16,772 +81 25,972 427,431 10,011 1,420 51 2,385,154 7,206 Spain 157,022 +3,800 15,843 +396 55,668 85,511 7,371 3,358 339 355,000 7,593 Italy 143,626
18,279
28,470 96,877 3,605 2,375 302 853,369 14,114 Germany 119,401 +1,166 2,607
52,407 64,387 4,895 1,425 31 1,317,887 15,730 France 117,749

 

[Gumby]

The state by state analysis of the statistics of this disease will be interesting to see when this is over.

I would suggest that they are already interesting. Take the chart at this link https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and sort it by number of cases per million population in descending order. Those in the top 5 states are likely to have a far different view of this situation than those in the bottom 5. You can see evidence of that in certain posts on this board.

 

[dd564]

This is the "math" I used. If you have a different method,please share.
U.S. 16,772/470,175 = 3.57%
Italy 18,279/143,626 = 12.73%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

USA 470,175 +1,609 16,772 +81 25,972 427,431 10,011 1,420 51 2,385,154 7,206 Spain 157,022 +3,800 15,843 +396 55,668 85,511 7,371 3,358 339 355,000 7,593 Italy 143,626
18,279
28,470 96,877 3,605 2,375 302 853,369 14,114 Germany 119,401 +1,166 2,607
52,407 64,387 4,895 1,425 31 1,317,887 15,730 France 117,749

Ok. That's death rate of people tested as infected (and most importantly reported by their government).

Italy as a nation has 143k total cases.
That's 0.24% of their population.
1 in 400 people has a case of COVID there.
Of those they have 18k deaths.
That's 0.03% of their population.
1 in 3300.

 

[Rianne]

The death rate is probably wildly inaccurate. In our family 11 people had the virus but only 2 got tested. The death rate you're quoting is only people who were tested who likely had severe symptoms. The true mortality rate for everyone infected is "probably" MUCH lower than that.

"probably" is the word in question. Is it also probable that many who passed away were not tested before death? Do you think testing might make our assumptions more realistic? Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but what's the downside to testing? The numbers go up and we look bad? How do you know your family had 11 people who had the virus? Maybe they had the flu? Why did only 2 get tested?

 

[dd564]

I would suggest that they are already interesting. Take the chart at this link https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and sort it by number of cases per million population in descending order. Those in the top 5 states are likely to have a far different view of this situation than those in the bottom 5. You can see evidence of that in certain posts on this board.

Minnesota is doing the best of the states so far. But the model our Gov is using is projecting 19,775 more deaths here in Minnesota. (We're at 225 right now).

The IHME model is projecting about 500 Minnesota deaths, but our Gov and our world known expert are saying we'll have 3x what New York is currently at for actual deaths by the time we are done.

 

[REWahoo]

Here is a concerning report from the BBC:

South Korean patients thought cured test positive again

South Korean health authorities say 91 people thought recovered after contracting coronavirus have tested positive for the disease again.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said on Friday it was not clear why the patients had tested positive for a second time.

KCDC director Jeong Eun-kyeong told a news conference it was possible that the virus had “reactivated” in the patients, as opposed to them being re-infected.

Other health experts suggested the patients may have "relapsed” or been misdiagnosed by faulty tests.

The results will be of keen interest internationally, as health experts worldwide hope people infected by Covid-19 will develop immunity to the disease, allowing them to return to work.

 

[dd564]

"probably" is the word in question. Is it also probable that many who passed away were not tested before death? Do you think testing might make our assumptions more realistic? Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but what's the downside to testing? The numbers go up and we look bad? How do you know your family had 11 people who had the virus? Maybe they had the flu? Why did only 2 get tested?

I find it doubtful MANY who passed away during this period are not being recorded as COVID.

 

[ivinsfan]

"probably" is the word in question. Is it also probable that many who passed away were not tested before death? Do you think testing might make our assumptions more realistic? Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but what's the downside to testing? The numbers go up and we look bad? How do you know your family had 11 people who had the virus? Maybe they had the flu? Why did only 2 get tested?

Well how do you know they didn't have the virus...I think these kind of questions can literally drive people nuts....no matter what the numbers are all you can do is try to keep you and your family safe...we personally don't have control over anyone but us, which a scary thing to think about..

 

[gwraigty]

State news: Ohio governor is close to having a reopening plan finalized. He's going to announce the details sometime next week. Our health director thinks we're all going to be happy with it. I hope so. People were protesting outside the building during the press conference yesterday. You could hear loud shouting at times. One photo shows a protester holding a large rifle. I think people were better able to tolerate staying at home when the original stay at home order was for only 2 weeks. Now that we're shut down for another 4 weeks, there's growing unrest. The reporters are asking daily when and how we open up again. It's becoming a more dominant concern, especially as so many are still waiting to be able to get through the tangle to file for their unemployment, or are still waiting weeks later for their first check. Food bank resources are becoming severely strained.

DH's employer announced that one of their large customers is reopening one plant on Monday, so his employer is recalling about 700 employees who were just recently furloughed from 2 of the manufacturing plants.

DD's employer is seeing a slight uptick in business over the last couple of days. More are coming through the drive thru and coming inside for carry out. They're baking more and it's selling. The weather was beautiful and springlike on Wednesday, but it was colder and icky yesterday, so the weather doesn't totally account for the uptick. This morning we had a little snow on the ground. Maybe people are getting tired of their own cooking? Maybe feeling a little more "unrested" and needing to get out for just a short bit.

 

[ivinsfan]

Here is a concerning report from the BBC:

South Korean patients thought cured test positive again

This is why we need a gold standard test, with good reliability. Even our regular flu tests aren't perfect or even close to perfect...

 

[Gumby]

"probably" is the word in question. Is it also probable that many who passed away were not tested before death? Do you think testing might make our assumptions more realistic? Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but what's the downside to testing? The numbers go up and we look bad? How do you know your family had 11 people who had the virus? Maybe they had the flu? Why did only 2 get tested?

I don't believe ugeauxgirl was suggesting there is a downside to testing. At present, there is only a limited test capacity available, so they only test those who come to the hospital in some places. Since it appears that many people can be infected but not need medical attention, then the denominator in the death rate is likely far larger than we currently know. But, as you note, if people die of coronavirus but they were untested and their death not attributed to the virus, then the numerator would be lower than actual. At the low death rate percentages we are talking about (2-3%), one undercount in the numerator is worth 33-50 undercounts in the denominator. Hard to know right now which way those inaccuracies will ultimately drive the rate.

 

[gwraigty]

Well, I hope the quarantine part works to lower R0 because nobody here is bothering with social distancing when they go out.

It's so bad our governor has now restricted how many people can be in a store at any one time:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241884686.html

I scanned the article. In Ohio, the governor has left it up to each store to determine their capacity restrictions. Walmart is 20%. Giant Eagle is 50%. Others, I don't know.

It scared me, too, the thought of having to wait in a long line, maybe with the person in back of me refusing to keep 6 feet back, and then finally getting inside only to find too many empty shelves for my troubles. But I did my first grocery trip yesterday at Meijer since the new store capacity limits and it was great! No line to get in! I think a lot will depend on the store and when you go. Avoid weekends if at all possible.

 

[ivinsfan]

I scanned the article. In Ohio, the governor has left it up to each store to determine their capacity restrictions. Walmart is 20%. Giant Eagle is 50%. Others, I don't know.

It scared me, too, the thought of having to wait in a long line, maybe with the person in back of me refusing to keep 6 feet back, and then finally getting inside only to find too many empty shelves for my troubles. But I did my first grocery trip yesterday at Meijer since the new store capacity limits and it was great! No line to get in! I think a lot will depend on the store and when you go. Avoid weekends if at all possible.

Are weekends still weekends with so many people not working? I wouldn't go on a weekend as a courtesy to people with essential jobs...let them get what they need and a bonus would be I'd probably be around less people that have more exposure to COVID..

 

[Rianne]

Ok. That's death rate of people tested as infected (and most importantly reported by their government).

Italy as a nation has 143k total cases.
That's 0.24% of their population.
1 in 400 people has a case of COVID there.
Of those they have 18k deaths.
That's 0.03% of their population.
1 in 3300.

What's your point? The death rate from cancer in U.S., based on total population is .17% in 2019. What does that mean?

 

[ugeauxgirl]

"probably" is the word in question. Is it also probable that many who passed away were not tested before death? Do you think testing might make our assumptions more realistic? Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but what's the downside to testing? The numbers go up and we look bad? How do you know your family had 11 people who had the virus? Maybe they had the flu? Why did only 2 get tested?

Most of us asked to be tested and were told that you could only get tested if you were seriously ill- like couldn't breathe or were in a high risk category. Two of us got it before there were any tests available in the state. Most of us had mild symptoms and no risk factors. I think more widespread testing of people with mild symptoms and no symptoms (since many are asymptomatic) at all would provide better insight of how deadly the virus is- not just how deadly it is to people who were able to get a test. I don't think there is a downside to testing. I think we would be much better off if we could do widespread testing. But that's just my opinion.

 

[USGrant1962]

"probably" is the word in question. Is it also probable that many who passed away were not tested before death? Do you think testing might make our assumptions more realistic? Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but what's the downside to testing? The numbers go up and we look bad? How do you know your family had 11 people who had the virus? Maybe they had the flu? Why did only 2 get tested?

The downside to testing is swamping the medical system with tests. They take medical personnel and laboratory capacity. We certainly need to continue to ramp it up, but some kind of finger snap solution is unworkable.

 

[gwraigty]

Are weekends still weekends with so many people not working? I wouldn't go on a weekend as a courtesy to people with essential jobs...let them get what they need and a bonus would be I'd probably be around less people that have more exposure to COVID..

I wouldn't think so, but my cashier said that people had to stand outside and wait in line before being allowed into the store over the weekend. Some grocery chains implemented limits a couple of days ahead of the Monday mandate. I see more people than normal in the stores during the week, as I'd expect from people who aren't working or might be working from home.

 

[Rianne]

Well how do you know they didn't have the virus...I think these kind of questions can literally drive people nuts....no matter what the numbers are all you can do is try to keep you and your family safe...we personally don't have control over anyone but us, which a scary thing to think about..

Yes, how do we go back to normal, understand this virus better, figure out how to deal with it? My concern is based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which is the best information we have.

I look at Singapore or South Korea with the understanding they are testing constantly and have way more data than we do. IMHO looking at the U.S. data is like looking down from the ceiling at my DB car. It's a mess. Based on what the individual states are going through trying to catch up and care for patients, figure out where PPE is needed, decide the true clusters of disease...? We are the U.S., the best and the brightest, the shining city on a hill. Where will we be when this is "said and done"? Will it ever be "said and done" the way we're handling this crisis?

 

[Gumby]

A good and timely reminder. Thanks, gwraighty.

 

[pacergal]

Here is a concerning report from the BBC:

South Korean patients thought cured test positive again

That is very concerning. It will be interesting to have a follow up on that, hopefully.