I was intrigued by the chart above from Hussman. I compared Shiller's PE10 look to this concept of P/PeakEarnings. The current Shiller PE10 level is about 21, much lower than the 40 or so in 2000. (These all reference S&P 500 prices and earnings.)
However, we are not far below the peak of 1966 around 24, that ushered in a long lasting stagflation bear market in the 70s and early to mid 80s. The 1974 low was below 10, and though it bounced around after that it frequently went back below 10. Then the early and mid 80s saw prices move up slowly and earnings increase more rapidly, such that PE10 spent much of the early and mid 80s below 10. The next recession in 1990 hit RE hard, but PE10 only declined to 15 that fall. Then the 2002 bear bottomed above today's level of 21.
So if you feel that '02 was pretty bad, today should be a safe entry level, and we are right to ask "When will it recover?" If you think on the other hand that events could take PE10 back toward those earlier levels, we haven't seen anything yet! Drops of 1/3 to 1/2 are possible, or very long periods of stagnation while earnings try to catch up to valuations.
I think if interest rates can be kept on the floor, we are relatively safe. But that is a big if. And should it turn out the other way, this could be a very high risk entry, at least for stocks as whole. It does seem to me that recent bear markets have been more along the lines of sector rotations rather than across the board crashes. However I can't see why this would have to continue to be true.
Tricky business!
Ha