Coronavirus - Health aspects

[MichaelB]

I think the mortality rate as reported is way too low. Even if we take China's bogus numbers at face value, the denominator is wrong. Pick whatever time you like between confirming a case and the patient dying. Let's say it is a week. In that case, you should take the cumulative number of diagnosed cases from a week against reported deaths today.

It’s possible the opposite is true. Mild cases may not be detected or reported, and that would lead to a lower mortality rate.

 

[Masquernom]

The ocean liner quarantined in Japan will probably give you a good number on the virus affect. Lots of people in close quarters, so spread will be high. I suspect the population skews to an older age, so death rate should be a little higher than the general population. Japan is a first world country, so access to good health care I'd hope. Hopefully reporting will be believable. So the infection/death rate from that ship should be a little higher than the general population. Let's see how that situation plays out.

 

[sengsational]

The ocean liner quarantined in Japan will probably give you a good number on the virus affect. ...

This has been my thinking as well; nowhere to hide in statistics from that little microcosm.

 

[explanade]

Thought they've been slow to test.

Eventually they might need to test all the passengers.

One speculation while they've tested relatively few is that they may be trying to establish some stringent testing process, more rigid than China and more along the level of the CDC, which is also testing but in obviously minuscule volumes compared to China.

 

[Masquernom]

Before you buy a lot of masks and MRE's, remember, even if you do get the new coronavirus, your odds are about 50 to 1 or 2 that you'll survive it.

 

[explanade]

You may survive it but you could also be very sick.

There are reports of patients in their 20s with severe pneumonia.

 

[brewer12345]

You may survive it but you could also be very sick.

There are reports of patients in their 20s with severe pneumonia.

The WHO is suggesting that 15% of patients end up with pneumonia.

 

[REWahoo]

Can't find the source now, but I saw something a day or two ago about a review of 17,000 cases and they found that roughly 85% had mild symptoms, 15% got seriously ill and 2% of those died. No info as to age.

 

[explanade]

Most of the fatalities have been people in the 50s and older.

Usually preexisting conditions, smokers.

 

[MichaelB]

Can't find the source now, but I saw something a day or two ago about a review of 17,000 cases and they found that roughly 85% had mild symptoms, 15% got seriously ill and 2% of those died. No info as to age.

I saw that here, from a WHO briefing on Feb 7 https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Very important data released by @WHO's @mvankerkhove just now: Based on data from 17,000 cases, 82% of cases are mild, 15% are severe and 3% are critical. First time I've seen that estimate of mild cases.

 

[Masquernom]

Can't find the source now, but I saw something a day or two ago about a review of 17,000 cases and they found that roughly 85% had mild symptoms, 15% got seriously ill and 2% of those died. No info as to age.

So if you catch it, your odds are about 6 to 1 of having a serious illness.

Guess it wouldn't hurt to buy a few extra cans of beans and soup....

 

[Fermion]

Your odds of dying to the new coronavirus are staggeringly higher than the odds of getting bit by a shark while swimming in the ocean, getting mugged in a dark alley in any city, getting killed by drug trafficers in the worst parts of Mexico.

We change our behavior on those things...

 

[Gumby]

Your odds of dying to the new coronavirus are staggeringly higher than the odds of getting bit by a shark while swimming in the ocean, getting mugged in a dark alley in any city, getting killed by drug trafficers in the worst parts of Mexico.

We change our behavior on those things...

Some of us do; some are just stubborn.

 

[NW-Bound]

In 2018, there were about 227.5 million licensed drivers in the United States. In the same year, there were 36,560 fatalities, plus 2 million injuries.

Ignoring the injuries, the death rate is only 0.016%. No big deal? Why do people get so excited about safety features on new cars, self-driving cars and such things?

We will eventually learn of the true infection rate and fatality in Wuhan. It is going to be a lot worse than currently known. And imagine how bad it would be, if it is spread to crowded cities like Saigon, Bangkok, Mumbai, etc...

 

[Walt34]

We will eventually learn of the true infection rate and fatality in Wuhan. It is going to be a lot worse than currently known. And imagine how bad it would be, if it is spread to crowded cities like Saigon, Bangkok, Mumbai, etc...

And we will be happy to just kind of hang out here in Nowheresville, WV...

 

[ls99]

And we will be happy to just kind of hang out here in Nowheresville, WV...

And next to itsy bitsy town in SW PA.

 

[NW-Bound]

I told my wife to imagine the shock and the frenzy media if we contracted the virus from abroad, or from a cruise ship, then spread it to the small unincorporated town (pop. 3000) where we have our high-country boondocks home. Authorities would go crazy trying to figure out how the counter clerk at the town's hardware store got the virus.

But if it gets really bad as in China, nobody could or even bothered to do that tracking anymore. Let's hope no more places get to that point.

 

[brewer12345]

Hard to believe, but the Chinese authorities made their reported data even less credible: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/how-china-rigging-number-coronavirus-infections

 

[ls99]

Being a body builder in great shape is no defense from this bug.

"When a chronic fever concerned Mr Hai and his wife, they tried to send him to Wuhan Union Hospital, but they went home again because the lack of beds meant he needed to queue behind more than 300 people."

"Qiu Jun, 72, was still going strong as a bodybuilder until his death from coronavirus on February 6"
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/beloved-chinese-bodybuilder-dies-coronavirus-21471597

 

[tmm99]

This isn't anything scientific, but according to my 91-year-old mom who lives in Japan and watches news shows for hours every day, the news people are saying that the flu viruses probably kill more people than coronavirus. Several people who came back from Wuhan on the charter flights have already been discharged, and most corona patients there are having mild symptoms. They do have concerns about old people as well as people with chronic illnesses, who would be more vulnerable to this virus, however.

And evidently, their flu rate in Japan the last few weeks has been much lower than normal, maybe because everyone is washing hands and gargling more often.

 

[brewer12345]

This isn't anything scientific, but according to my 91-year-old mom who lives in Japan and watches news shows for hours every day, the news people are saying that the flu viruses probably kill more people than coronavirus. Several people who came back from Wuhan on the charter flights have already been discharged, and most corona patients are having mild symptoms. They do have concerns about old people as well as people with chronic illnesses, who would be more vulnerable to this virus, however.

And evidently, their flu rate in Japan the last few weeks has been much lower than normal, maybe because everyone is washing hands and gargling more often.

Then why is 40% of the Chinese population in lockdown?

 

[redshift]

570,000,000 are in lockdown? Doubtful.

Then why is 40% of the Chinese population in lockdown?

 

[NW-Bound]

... if you look beyond the headline you realize that 2% die. 8% are cured.

SO WHAT HAPPENS TO 90% OF PEOPLE WHO GET THIS?!!!!

Perhaps they died of "other causes".

As I mentioned in an earlier post, a Chinese doctor now living in the US said that China would try to classify a dead patient as dying from diabetes, coronary disease or some other chronic illnesses instead of the flu. Here in the US, the cause of death would be noted as complications from the flu.

PS. In a video I mentioned in post #593, a dead man was video'ed sitting in a wheelchair while waiting in a hospital corridor, while his wife was frantically calling the morgue. That would not be a confirmed virus case, would it? Nobody is going to waste time to do any virus test on this dead body. Straight to the crematorium. I would call it "dead of unknown cause".

 

[tmm99]

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Agreed, the cruise ship number of infections is shocking.

AFAIK they are only testing folks who are showing signs of illness.

What I read said that there's a limit on how many tests they can run in a day. I think it said a test takes something like 6-8 hours to complete and I'm not sure how many machines they have available at different facilities. It also sounded like they didn't want to use up all the machines in case there's a group outbreak elsewhere that needs checking in the very near future.

This is even less credible, but according to my 91-year-old mom who lives in Japan and watches TV news for hours every day, the coronavirus test can only be conducted at certain public facilities, but they're trying to expend it to private facilities so they can test all passengers/crew members on Diamond Princess. Not sure if that will actually happen, but that seems to be what they are saying on the news there. (Just so you know, Japanese TV news are pretty dry in my opinion. They don't take sides or put any obvious spins on what's going on.)

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, not all those who have not recovered died.

I just saw the following:

On Sunday, 632 patients walked out of hospital, bringing the total of people who have been discharged to 3,281.

However, the daily death toll set a record Sunday, with 97 deaths, bringing the total to 908. The number of confirmed cases since the epidemic began rose by more than 3,000 to 40,171.

After accounting for those people who are cured or who have died, China is still treating 35,982 confirmed cases, including 6,484 in serious condition, with 23,589 suspected cases.