How will this affect my home's value?

[harley]

This is just a question. I'm curious about everyone's opinion. I'm not necessarily looking for advice as to whether to move or not, just interested in how others look at something like this.

I currently live (part time) in a small 1250 sf SFH in SWFL. It's our primary residence, but we're snowbirds. It's an older house, built in '87. Cinder block on slab bunker style, and it's made it through many a hurricane, including Irma most recently. It's nice enough, and we've made improvements like new windows and doors, new appliances (in the same old kitchen), new roof, and turned the ratty backyard into a large paved patio with a canopy and chimanea and such. Plus DW and I are gardeners and we've done a lot of planting. Everything looks great except the grass, which we just can't keep healthy. It's a simple but nice looking place, worth about $280K right now, which is up about 40% (after improvements) from when we bought it. The rest of the neighborhood is a significant step down, lots of somewhat beat vacation homes and lower end rentals, but very slowly gentrifying. I've attached a few pictures of the place.

So, directly across the street has been a very large empty lot, and on the corner was a mediocre seafood restaurant. That's been closed, and is being torn down, as is the lot. They're going to build vacation resort condos, with shopping and food, and a water park. I don't know if the water park will be public or not. Anyway, we just found the information on it. It's CABANA Resort & Spa. This is in the drawing board stage, and will never be exactly what they are showing, since they're showing golf carts cruising on Bonita Beach Rd, which is one of the busiest and most congested roads in SWFL. But it looks like it's going to be a high end job, and I wouldn't be surprised if the larger condos go for over $1M.

My question is, do you think this will increase or decrease the value of our little house, that is directly across the (small, crappy, private) street from the 4 story condos they show in their design? It's not that important, because que sera sera. I'm just curious what most people think will happen. Personally, I'm not thrilled about it because of the construction, and I'm a bit worried about the increase in traffic on the main road, and what will happen on our little private through road. But it will definitely be an improvement over a lot of what's nearby, and maybe will speed up the gentrification process. And who knows, maybe they'll build a decent seafood restaurant, and I'll be able to use the pool. I'll sit back and see what the groupthink has to say.

 

[JustCurious]

I hate to be a grammarian, but you should use "affect" instead of "effect" in this context, i.e. "How will this affect my house value?"

 

[harley]

I always get that wrong. Fixed.

Oops. Can't change the title. Maybe a grammatically inclined moderator will do it.

 

[COcheesehead]

Google “external obsolescence”. It may apply here.

 

[ivinsfan]

At this point in time,the question probably is will the project actually happen? Things are going to look very different in the near future.


Your home is lovely.

 

[Jerry1]

I always get that wrong. Fixed.

Oops. Can't change the title. Maybe a grammatically inclined moderator will do it.

I’m not grammatically inclined, but I changed it for you.

 

[CaptTom]

There's two kinds of value. What it'll sell for, and it's value to you as a home.

At this point all bets are off on the real estate market going forward. But if you were inclined to sell, and the project goes through, I'd think either the developer, or someone looking to open a business right outside the gates of the development, would pay top dollar for your property.

As for the personal value as a home, to me it would go down if someone built a huge development next door. I don't like that sort of thing. But as you say, it might bring in more people and businesses you like, so to you it might go up.

 

[rodi]

I'd say in the near term - the market will soften. People feel poorer right now because of their nest eggss and 401ks are smaller. Employment is down, etc.

I'd way when we get past this - it will return to 'normal'... whatever normal is for your local market.

 

[harley]

Google “external obsolescence”. It may apply here.

I looked it up, and that's sort of why I asked the question. We already have a busy road and commercial buildings nearby. But this high end development isn't a landfill or high voltage wires. I agree with Capt. Tom, it's not exactly what I would prefer. I liked the empty lot with the rattlers and gopher tortoises. But you can't stop progress, especially in FL, where the local gov'ts are the best money can buy.

At this point in time,the question probably is will the project actually happen? Things are going to look very different in the near future.

They've been talking about this for the entire 7 years we've been here, and I've always said "I'll believe it when I see it". But now they've started tearing down the woods and sunk the (extremely expensive) cost of relocating the gopher tortoises. So, while the current situation could conceivably throw a monkey wrench into their plans, I'm starting to think it might happen. The tear down and beginning construction is going on as we speak. It will be interesting to see what comes of it.

Your home is lovely.

Thank you.

 

[NW-Bound]

I clicked on the link you provided, then looked on the map. That large lot of land is facing Bonita Beach Rd, which is a major divided road. The entrance to that development will have to be on that major road, which is not where your home is, from your description.

If the above is true, it may not bother you all that much.

 

[Moemg]

I think it will not happen for many years . Florida moves in slow motion and more so now . We have a development near us called Longbar point that had been tied up in approvals for years . They finally broke ground a few months ago and nothing seems to be happening now . The same thing happened in the last recession . Projects were just stopped and some never restarted .

 

[Freedom56]

This is just a question. I'm curious about everyone's opinion. I'm not necessarily looking for advice as to whether to move or not, just interested in how others look at something like this.

I currently live (part time) in a small 1250 sf SFH in SWFL. It's our primary residence, but we're snowbirds. It's an older house, built in '87. Cinder block on slab bunker style, and it's made it through many a hurricane, including Irma most recently. It's nice enough, and we've made improvements like new windows and doors, new appliances (in the same old kitchen), new roof, and turned the ratty backyard into a large paved patio with a canopy and chimanea and such. Plus DW and I are gardeners and we've done a lot of planting. Everything looks great except the grass, which we just can't keep healthy. It's a simple but nice looking place, worth about $280K right now, which is up about 40% (after improvements) from when we bought it. The rest of the neighborhood is a significant step down, lots of somewhat beat vacation homes and lower end rentals, but very slowly gentrifying. I've attached a few pictures of the place.

So, directly across the street has been a very large empty lot, and on the corner was a mediocre seafood restaurant. That's been closed, and is being torn down, as is the lot. They're going to build vacation resort condos, with shopping and food, and a water park. I don't know if the water park will be public or not. Anyway, we just found the information on it. It's CABANA Resort & Spa. This is in the drawing board stage, and will never be exactly what they are showing, since they're showing golf carts cruising on Bonita Beach Rd, which is one of the busiest and most congested roads in SWFL. But it looks like it's going to be a high end job, and I wouldn't be surprised if the larger condos go for over $1M.

My question is, do you think this will increase or decrease the value of our little house, that is directly across the (small, crappy, private) street from the 4 story condos they show in their design? It's not that important, because que sera sera. I'm just curious what most people think will happen. Personally, I'm not thrilled about it because of the construction, and I'm a bit worried about the increase in traffic on the main road, and what will happen on our little private through road. But it will definitely be an improvement over a lot of what's nearby, and maybe will speed up the gentrification process. And who knows, maybe they'll build a decent seafood restaurant, and I'll be able to use the pool. I'll sit back and see what the groupthink has to say.

I don't think we will see the kind of declines in Florida like we saw in 2009-2011. I don't know the SW Florida market but in SE Florida, the market has a lot of buyers from the last recession, like us that were all cash buyers. In fact 92% of the sales in Palm Beach County were all cash in 2011. What this does is mitigate a lot of the foreclosures that drove prices down as much as 75% during the last downturn. It's all about location, the coastal and intra-coastal areas will do better than the inland areas. The wild card is how deep of a recession do we sink into and how long does it take to dig out. Mortgage rates will decline but the issue is finding people who can qualify. Bank in 2009-2011 banks were not interested in originating mortgages and looked for cash buyers to unload properties.

 

[CardsFan]

I clicked on the link you provided, then looked on the map. That large lot of land is facing Bonita Beach Rd, which is a major divided road. The entrance to that development will have to be on that major road, which is not where your home is, from your description.

If the above is true, it may not bother you all that much.

I did the same, and agree with NW's assessment.

On a side note, we spent February in a house in Naples Park, and drove by your location several times. I don't know the history of the area, but Naples park appears to be an older community that then had some High end developments built around it. I would guess home values held, or went up. We saw several new homes being built, closer to Vanderbilt Drive, clearly they were tear downs, given the new homes are 2-3 times the size of the neighbors.

If you like the house and location, I would stay. Traffic on Bonita Beach Road can't get much worse (during high season).

FWIW, we found the beach at Wiggins Pass State park to be the best in the area, and Vanderbilt Drive was never very busy.

We also were walking distance from Joe's diner. Ate there for breakfast too many times

 

[harley]

I think it will not happen for many years . Florida moves in slow motion and more so now . We have a development near us called Longbar point that had been tied up in approvals for years . They finally broke ground a few months ago and nothing seems to be happening now . The same thing happened in the last recession . Projects were just stopped and some never restarted .

From your lips to God's ears.

I did the same, and agree with NW's assessment.

On a side note, we spent February in a house in Naples Park, and drove by your location several times. I don't know the history of the area, but Naples park appears to be an older community that then had some High end developments built around it. I would guess home values held, or went up. We saw several new homes being built, closer to Vanderbilt Drive, clearly they were tear downs, given the new homes are 2-3 times the size of the neighbors.

If you like the house and location, I would stay. Traffic on Bonita Beach Road can't get much worse (during high season).

FWIW, we found the beach at Wiggins Pass State park to be the best in the area, and Vanderbilt Drive was never very busy.

We also were walking distance from Joe's diner. Ate there for breakfast too many times

We're definitely staying, at least for awhile. We bought the house because of DW's SAD and the fact that we couldn't find a place to rent that would allow our dogs (2 pugs, 2 chihuahuas). We're down to three now, and one of the pugs is fading. Our long term goal is to have only one dog and be able to rent, then we'll sell the place and try different locations for winter. Although it will be hard to give up our FL residency and have to start paying state income tax again. Maybe I'll wait until I finish all my Roth conversions.

Glad you enjoyed the visit, and you're right about the traffic not being able to get much worse. We sometimes walk down to Wiggens from Bonita Beach. It's nice down there.

But I'm not so much concerned about whether I will like it or not. I was curious as to whether something like this would be a property value enhancer or detractor. I can see it going either way. But my instinct is that it would raise the value, assuming it ever happens. High end dining and shopping, water park, and nice landscaping should be better than a mediocre restaurant and an empty field. But as anyone who has read my posts in the past is well aware, I'm wrong at least as often as I'm right.

 

[DrRoy]

In the short term between covid and a big construction site next door it will be worse. After the project is completed, I would guess that it will help. Just my guess.

 

[Ronstar]

I suspect that the value of your place will increase a few years down the road. Maybe not as a single family home, but part of a big new development where several properties are demolished to create a parcel big enough for a new condo development.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Looking at the link, I see the units are set up to have a lock out unit within each unit and the literature uses the phrase, vacation rentals. The idea of a waterpark and establishments such as breweries on the property make me think this project is going to be populated more by transient vacationers. If I were shopping for a house such as yours, which looks delightful, I would not want to purchase it if it were next to such a facility.

Ronstar may be right though, if the property is a success, the properties on your small side street could be swallowed up for a phase 2. I would think that at a minimum, your peace and tranquility will be greatly affected during the construction phase.

 

[Midpack]

I'd say in the near term - the market will soften. People feel poorer right now because of their nest eggss and 401ks are smaller. Employment is down, etc.

I'd way when we get past this - it will return to 'normal'... whatever normal is for your local market.

+1. Many individuals and businesses will suffer liquidity and credit setbacks, with more unemployment, so prices will soften on almost everything including real estate. We’ll recover, but it won’t be V-shaped, for the same liquidity and credit issues. If the economy is shut down for 6 weeks it won’t be nearly as bad as down for 6 months obviously.

 

[CaptTom]

I'm following this pretty closely, because I was just in the final stages of putting my own house on the market when the Covid hit the fan.

The plan was - and still is - to sell this house in a reasonably high COL area, and use the money to buy a "better" place in a lower COL area. By better I mean, specifically, a place with a dock where I can keep my boat.

This puts me in an interesting position. I don't really care what dollar amount my current house sells for, as long as that amount can buy what I want elsewhere. Of course, no-one knows exactly where the market will stabilize, but I'm open to theories.

Had I been lucky, I'd have sold this place just before this started, and had cash ready to buy into a depressed market. I knew we were at a peak, but events overtook me. Market timing has never been my thing.

 

[ivinsfan]

Your pictures are nice but the paranoia in me suggests you might want to delete the one that shows the plate number on your van.

I keep thinking about the fact they are marketing this a vacation rental thing...so basically no buyer would buy it as a primary home. Our favorite southern Utah spot has been a hotbed of building for 20 years. During the big crash multiple developments had streets and even some utilities put it. The projects died and went back to the bank. So a few years later, the big builders in the area bought each others dead projects from the banks and developed their competitors projects on the cheap. This wasn't a quick process and took maybe 7 to 10 years to happen.

Something most likely will happen on the property but not for a long time.

 

[Sunset]

Your pictures are nice but the paranoia in me suggests you might want to delete the one that shows the plate number on your van.

....

I had the same thought, along with the house number.

 

[harley]

Your pictures are nice but the paranoia in me suggests you might want to delete the one that shows the plate number on your van.

I had the same thought, along with the house number.

Yeah, I thought about that, but pretty much everything is in public record these days so I didn't bother. I know a dozen or so members of the forum personally, so my last name is out there too. And I really can't see what problems can come from people knowing where you live, since all they have to do is look it up on the web. There are a fair number of people in the board that have shared their names, so it's easy to look them up and see where they live. I haven't heard of anybody having any problem because of it.

Plus, the house is pretty secure, and there's not much in here worth stealing. Except my coronavirus food stash.

 

[harley]

I agree with the comments about the negative aspects of the construction. Also with the uncertainty of the project ever getting completed. But since they've started clearing ground finally after at least 7 years of talking about it, it was making me wonder. I'm really not sure whether I would see the completed project as a positive or a negative. We've talked about not even coming down for a year if the construction really gets going. It would be an interesting experiment to experience winter again, to see whether it's gotten more tolerable.

I suspect that living across from something like what they've got planned would turn me off over time. It's noisy here from being so close to a couple of very busy roads, but our little backyard is an oasis for us. I suspect having a 4 story condo looming over our rooftop would lower the degree of relaxation sitting back there brings us. So hopefully it won't get done in the time we're going to be living here. But if it is, it will be interesting to see what it does do to the value of our home. Maybe I'll update the thread if it ever happens.

 

[ivinsfan]

Yeah, I thought about that, but pretty much everything is in public record these days so I didn't bother. I know a dozen or so members of the forum personally, so my last name is out there too. And I really can't see what problems can come from people knowing where you live, since all they have to do is look it up on the web. There are a fair number of people in the board that have shared their names, so it's easy to look them up and see where they live. I haven't heard of anybody having any problem because of it.

Plus, the house is pretty secure, and there's not much in here worth stealing. Except my coronavirus food stash.

If you admit to having extra TP all bets are off as far as stealing..

 

[pacergal]

Your house and yard is lovely.
I have lived through neighborhood construction in the past, and it is definitely disruptive.
I think in the future, your house will be of greater value, but who knows how long that will take in todays environment.